Daily Audio Brief
~2 min · Iran/Gulf · Rachel
⚠ Day 98 — First direct US-Iran kinetic exchange since the April ceasefire — and crude FELL anyway. Overnight: IRGC strikes a tanker mid-Hormuz alleging “illegal transit,” US intercepts 4 Iranian attack drones, US Navy strikes Iranian coastal radar on Qeshm Island + Goruk, Iran retaliates with 7 ballistic missiles at Kuwait + Bahrain (6 intercepted, explosions near Kuwait airport — first Iranian kinetic on Gulf state infra). Brent settled $93.09 (-2.0% d/d), WTI $90.54 (-2.1%) — market read the exchange as bounded and stayed leaned on the US-Iran MoU optimism. War premium drained ~$2 to ~$23/bbl. The actual portfolio story was DC Infra and Quantum getting flushed on macro, not geopolitics: PHLX -8.5%, NVDA -6.2%, MRVL -16.7%, MU -13.3%, MPWR -10.4%, GLW -10.2%, AVGO follow-through -7.9%. Quantinuum broke offer day-2 → the listed quantum complex got nuked in sympathy (IONQ -13.5%, QBTS -13.7%, RGTI -14.4%, ARQQ -14.6%, LAES -12.3%). Hot May jobs print killed any 2026-cut hopes. SPY -2.6% / QQQ -4.8%. Portfolio Jun-5 close: DC Infra +24.2% (-13.6pp d/d), Quantum +15.0% (-18.2pp), Robotics +3.7% (-5.2pp).
Diplomacy
• Direct US-Iran kinetic, but bounded. Overnight: IRGC tanker hit in-Strait + US drone intercepts + US Navy strikes on Iranian coastal radar (Qeshm/Goruk) + Iranian ballistic salvo on Kuwait/Bahrain (6 of 7 intercepted). Kuwait/Bahrain both formally condemned (“direct threat,” “dangerous escalation”). This is the first direct Iranian kinetic on Gulf-state infra in this cycle — and the threshold the dashboard has been watching — but scale is below the “Saudi/UAE infra hit” trigger and no US casualties.
• US-Iran MoU is the ceiling that held. Tape didn’t panic because the 60-day MoU is still on the table awaiting Trump sign-off and frozen-assets release / Lebanon precondition haggling continues. Tehran still publicly: “no tangible progress.” Trump team “consulting experts” on nuclear talks — read as “still in the deal lane.”
• Israel-Lebanon: Hezbollah still rejects conditional truce, IDF strikes north of Litani continuing — unchanged from yesterday, no fresh escalation.
• Watchpoint: if Iran follows the missile salvo with a Saudi/UAE infra hit OR if the US loses tonnage/personnel, the MoU dies and premium re-prices to $35-45. If Trump uses the exchange to fast-track the MoU sign-off (“forced both sides to the table” narrative), premium collapses to $15.
• US-Iran MoU is the ceiling that held. Tape didn’t panic because the 60-day MoU is still on the table awaiting Trump sign-off and frozen-assets release / Lebanon precondition haggling continues. Tehran still publicly: “no tangible progress.” Trump team “consulting experts” on nuclear talks — read as “still in the deal lane.”
• Israel-Lebanon: Hezbollah still rejects conditional truce, IDF strikes north of Litani continuing — unchanged from yesterday, no fresh escalation.
• Watchpoint: if Iran follows the missile salvo with a Saudi/UAE infra hit OR if the US loses tonnage/personnel, the MoU dies and premium re-prices to $35-45. If Trump uses the exchange to fast-track the MoU sign-off (“forced both sides to the table” narrative), premium collapses to $15.
Oil
• Brent $93.09 (Aug-26, -2.0% d/d) · WTI $90.54 (-2.1% d/d) · Dubai ~$90.46 (Jun-5). Brent-WTI spread ~$2.5 — widened slightly. Brent-Dubai spread now ~$2.6 — paper-vs-physical convergence essentially complete (was ~$9 in March). The market’s tell: a real Iranian missile salvo on Gulf state infra did NOT re-open the spread — traders are not bidding the political premium back.
• War premium ~$23/bbl vs $70 pre-war anchor — -$2 d/d, drained on MoU-still-alive read of the limited kinetic. Asymmetric: Trump MoU signature → $15 (Brent ~$83); Saudi/UAE infra hit or US troops engaged → $35-45 (Brent $105-115); hard Hormuz re-shut → $80+ (Brent $150+).
• EIA June STEO + May CPI both Jun-10. EIA still has Brent ~$106 in May/June, dropping to $89 in Q4 as ME production recovers — if STEO holds that path with the new kinetic on tape, it’s a hawkish-for-oil signal. May CPI consensus ~4.05% YoY headline / 2.9% core.
• OPEC+ buffer: 3-4M b/d spare intact; Saudi/UAE bypass flowing; six straight weeks of US crude inventory draws still a physical floor. The fact that Brent printed -2% on a kinetic-escalation day says the supply-side cushion narrative is winning the marginal trade.
• War premium ~$23/bbl vs $70 pre-war anchor — -$2 d/d, drained on MoU-still-alive read of the limited kinetic. Asymmetric: Trump MoU signature → $15 (Brent ~$83); Saudi/UAE infra hit or US troops engaged → $35-45 (Brent $105-115); hard Hormuz re-shut → $80+ (Brent $150+).
• EIA June STEO + May CPI both Jun-10. EIA still has Brent ~$106 in May/June, dropping to $89 in Q4 as ME production recovers — if STEO holds that path with the new kinetic on tape, it’s a hawkish-for-oil signal. May CPI consensus ~4.05% YoY headline / 2.9% core.
• OPEC+ buffer: 3-4M b/d spare intact; Saudi/UAE bypass flowing; six straight weeks of US crude inventory draws still a physical floor. The fact that Brent printed -2% on a kinetic-escalation day says the supply-side cushion narrative is winning the marginal trade.
Shipping
• Hormuz status: officially closed, Day 98 — soft-reopen narrative just took its first real hit. IRGC tanker strike on a vessel mid-transit is the first commercial hull hit since the Feb-28 closure escalation phase. Iran-Oman joint-management framework still nominally in force but the IRGC “authorized transit” channel is now demonstrably unreliable.
• Container freight spot rates +80% since late February per Lloyd’s/MEED. Tanker traffic still near zero on a daily basis (was ~30/day pre-war). Re-routing premium baked into rates.
• Insurance: AWRP ~1% of H&M value per 7-day transit was the rate going in — expect a step-up on Monday’s renewals after the tanker hit; reinsurers had been pricing soft-reopen optimism. VLCC additional premium peaked at ~$7.5M per voyage in March. Gard/Skuld still not writing standard hull war; US $20B DFC reinsurance facility remains the load-bearing wall.
• ~1,600 vessels / ~22,500 mariners stranded; 57 loaded VLCCs in-Strait. Exit pace was ~29 of 109 trapped non-Iranian tankers since Feb-28 — today’s incident likely freezes that for at least the weekend.
• Thresholds tripped today: first direct Iranian kinetic on Gulf state infra (Kuwait/Bahrain missile salvo). Not tripped: Saudi/UAE infra hit, US troops engaged on ground, hard Hormuz mine re-laying campaign.
• Container freight spot rates +80% since late February per Lloyd’s/MEED. Tanker traffic still near zero on a daily basis (was ~30/day pre-war). Re-routing premium baked into rates.
• Insurance: AWRP ~1% of H&M value per 7-day transit was the rate going in — expect a step-up on Monday’s renewals after the tanker hit; reinsurers had been pricing soft-reopen optimism. VLCC additional premium peaked at ~$7.5M per voyage in March. Gard/Skuld still not writing standard hull war; US $20B DFC reinsurance facility remains the load-bearing wall.
• ~1,600 vessels / ~22,500 mariners stranded; 57 loaded VLCCs in-Strait. Exit pace was ~29 of 109 trapped non-Iranian tankers since Feb-28 — today’s incident likely freezes that for at least the weekend.
• Thresholds tripped today: first direct Iranian kinetic on Gulf state infra (Kuwait/Bahrain missile salvo). Not tripped: Saudi/UAE infra hit, US troops engaged on ground, hard Hormuz mine re-laying campaign.
Macro spillover
• CPI: May print Jun-10. April ran 3.8% headline / 2.8% core; Cleveland Fed nowcast pegs May at ~4.05% YoY, peaking at ~4.5% by year-end. Energy index still the swing factor — but Brent rolling lower despite today’s kinetic helps the print at the margin.
• Fed: target 3.50–3.75%. Hot May jobs print Jun-5 was the dagger — prediction markets ~98% on hold Jun-16/17 (Warsh’s first meeting + dot plot), and the cut-curve got flattened materially. JPM’s 2027-hike call gained traction; Goldman’s December-2026 first-cut now looks early. Rate-sensitive long-duration tech took the brunt of the repricing today — that’s what flushed the AI-semi and quantum complexes, not Iran.
• Defense capex: Global ~$2.6T 2026 (+8.1% YoY); US >$1T (+15% YoY) unchanged. But: the defense names did NOT bid on today’s kinetic — LMT +0.9%, TDY -2.6%, AVAV -9.0%. The Street is reading the exchange as bounded + still inside the MoU lane, so the kinetic-hedge premium isn’t re-engaging. Bigger drag on AVAV/TDY: higher discount rate on long-duration contract cash flows after the jobs print.
• Fed: target 3.50–3.75%. Hot May jobs print Jun-5 was the dagger — prediction markets ~98% on hold Jun-16/17 (Warsh’s first meeting + dot plot), and the cut-curve got flattened materially. JPM’s 2027-hike call gained traction; Goldman’s December-2026 first-cut now looks early. Rate-sensitive long-duration tech took the brunt of the repricing today — that’s what flushed the AI-semi and quantum complexes, not Iran.
• Defense capex: Global ~$2.6T 2026 (+8.1% YoY); US >$1T (+15% YoY) unchanged. But: the defense names did NOT bid on today’s kinetic — LMT +0.9%, TDY -2.6%, AVAV -9.0%. The Street is reading the exchange as bounded + still inside the MoU lane, so the kinetic-hedge premium isn’t re-engaging. Bigger drag on AVAV/TDY: higher discount rate on long-duration contract cash flows after the jobs print.
Energy adjacency
• TTF ~€48.7/MWh, +5.3% on the week but flat day-on-day — EU/Asia gas market is on watch but not pricing the kinetic. Pakistan paid $19.13/MMBtu for a Jun-6/7 LNG cargo — their priciest in four years and a clean signal that Hormuz-disrupted Asian buyers are bidding LNG to plug gas-power short. Worth flagging: if Iran does another Gulf-state infra strike, €50+ TTF flag goes live next week.
Portfolio read
• DC Infra +24.2% (Jun-5 close, -13.6pp d/d): the full AI-semi reset Day 97 warned about hit on Day 98. Broadcom guide spreads to the whole stack — NVDA -6.2%, MRVL -16.7%, MU -13.3%, MPWR -10.4%, GLW -10.2%, AVGO follow-through -7.9%. The Nvidia→COHR structural thesis is still intact long-term but the multiple math just got re-cut by the May jobs print + Broadcom resetting the AI-spend optimism ceiling. Basket still ~3x SPY YTD; risk now is duration not direction.
• Quantum +15.0% (-18.2pp d/d): the Quantinuum IPO break was the trigger — the whole listed quantum complex repriced on the read that public-market multiples were too rich vs the new IPO comp. IONQ -13.5%, QBTS -13.7%, RGTI -14.4%, ARQQ -14.6%, LAES -12.3%. This is a comp-driven reset, not a thesis break, but the basket has now given back nearly half its YTD over two sessions.
• Robotics +3.7% (-5.2pp d/d): rate-duration drag (TER -12.0%, AVAV -9.0%) + chip-equipment sympathy (AMAT -9.7%). Defense slice held best (LMT +0.9%) — but the punchline is that today’s kinetic did NOT generate a defense bid. Kinetic-hedge expression is still suspended pending an actual MoU breakdown.
• Bid: none today — broad-based de-risking. Bleeding: AI-semis + quantum (multi-factor: Broadcom reset + jobs print + Quantinuum comp + rate duration). Cross-current: Trump MoU signature this weekend would short-cover the rate-cut hopes again; a Saudi/UAE infra hit kills DC Infra and lifts defense + crude in tandem.
• Watch: (1) Trump MoU sign-off this weekend; (2) Iranian follow-through after the Kuwait/Bahrain salvo; (3) Hormuz transit-count + AWRP Monday renewals; (4) EIA STEO + May CPI Jun-10; (5) Warsh’s first FOMC + dot plot Jun-16/17; (6) does AVGO/MU dip get bought into MU earnings Jun-24 or does the AI-spend reset deepen.
• Quantum +15.0% (-18.2pp d/d): the Quantinuum IPO break was the trigger — the whole listed quantum complex repriced on the read that public-market multiples were too rich vs the new IPO comp. IONQ -13.5%, QBTS -13.7%, RGTI -14.4%, ARQQ -14.6%, LAES -12.3%. This is a comp-driven reset, not a thesis break, but the basket has now given back nearly half its YTD over two sessions.
• Robotics +3.7% (-5.2pp d/d): rate-duration drag (TER -12.0%, AVAV -9.0%) + chip-equipment sympathy (AMAT -9.7%). Defense slice held best (LMT +0.9%) — but the punchline is that today’s kinetic did NOT generate a defense bid. Kinetic-hedge expression is still suspended pending an actual MoU breakdown.
• Bid: none today — broad-based de-risking. Bleeding: AI-semis + quantum (multi-factor: Broadcom reset + jobs print + Quantinuum comp + rate duration). Cross-current: Trump MoU signature this weekend would short-cover the rate-cut hopes again; a Saudi/UAE infra hit kills DC Infra and lifts defense + crude in tandem.
• Watch: (1) Trump MoU sign-off this weekend; (2) Iranian follow-through after the Kuwait/Bahrain salvo; (3) Hormuz transit-count + AWRP Monday renewals; (4) EIA STEO + May CPI Jun-10; (5) Warsh’s first FOMC + dot plot Jun-16/17; (6) does AVGO/MU dip get bought into MU earnings Jun-24 or does the AI-spend reset deepen.
Risk Indicators
Hormuz Status
CLOSED — KINETIC RESUMED
Day 98. IRGC strikes a tanker mid-transit overnight — the first commercial hull hit since Feb-28 closure escalation, and the soft-reopen narrative just took its first real hit. US Navy intercepts 4 Iranian drones, strikes Iranian coastal radar on Qeshm/Goruk; Iran retaliates with 7 ballistic missiles at Kuwait + Bahrain (6 intercepted). Iran-Oman joint-management framework still nominally in force but the IRGC “authorized transit” channel is now demonstrably unreliable. AWRP entered Friday ~1% of H&M per 7-day transit (off March 2.5% / extreme 10%); expect step-up on Monday renewals. Transit-specific cover 3-5%; US/UK/Israeli-tied tonnage pays ~3x. Gard/Skuld still not writing standard hull war; US $20B DFC reinsurance facility remains the load-bearing wall. Container freight spot rates +80% since late February. ~1,600 vessels / ~22,500 mariners stranded; 57 loaded VLCCs in-Strait; ~29 of 109 trapped non-Iranian tankers had exited since Feb-28 — today’s incident likely freezes that.
Brent War Premium
~$23/bbl
Brent $93.09 (Aug-26, -2.0% d/d) vs pre-war ~$70 anchor = ~$23 premium — -$2 d/d despite a direct US-Iran kinetic exchange (tanker hit, drone intercepts, coastal radar strikes, Iranian missiles at Kuwait/Bahrain). Market read: bounded exchange, MoU still in play. WTI $90.54 (-2.1%). Asymmetric: Trump MoU signature → premium $15 (Brent ~$83); Saudi/UAE infra hit or US troops engaged → $35-45 (Brent $105-115); hard Hormuz mine re-laying → $80+ (Brent $150+). EIA June STEO + May CPI both Jun-10.
Paper vs Physical Gap
Brent > WTI by ~$2.5
Brent-WTI spread ~$2.5 ($93.09 Brent / $90.54 WTI) — still compressed vs pre-war ~$4-5. Brent-Dubai spread ~$2.6 on the July contract (vs ~$9 in March) — paper-vs-physical convergence essentially complete. The key signal: a real Iranian missile salvo on Gulf state infra did NOT re-open the spread today — traders are not bidding the political premium back. Japan METI still on Dubai gasoline-subsidy benchmark (since Jun-4).
U.S. Energy Insulation
+1.2M bbl/day
13.6M vs 12.4M pre-war domestic production
SPR Level
~52% filled
~372M bbl / 714M capacity | 10yr range: 50-94% (358M-638M bbl) | Post-Biden drawdown low: 50% (Oct 2023) | Near historical floor
Supply at Risk - Global Snapshot
~18M
bbl/day at risk (Hormuz)
RESTORED
Saudi E-W pipeline + Manifa
3.2M
bbl/day diverted (Red Sea)
~44 days
SPR buffer at current draw
+1.2M
bbl/day US surplus vs pre-war
■ S&P 500 FORECAST: Probability-weighted expected return by Nov 1, 2026: -3% to +3% | Day 79: Iran formalized the Strait via the new Persian Gulf Strait Authority — tolls up to $2M/ship in yuan/BTC, US blockade running in parallel. Trump signals "few days" patience window. Brent $108.09 / WTI $101.78 / Dubai ~$104.50; spread $6.31, war premium ~$38. Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed chair into a 3.8% CPI / structural-expectations-at-19-yr-high backdrop — Fed minutes leaned toward removing the easing bias. The big tape signal of the day was the Trump $2B/9-company quantum CHIPS announcement: every quantum holding ripped (QBTS +33, RGTI +31, ARQQ +26), and AI-optics (GLW/COHR/ANET +5-6%) joined the bid. Diplomatic ladder is symbolic; toll regime is structural; portfolio engine is government-of-quantum + AI-optics.
15-25% Probability ↓↓
Hormuz Reopens / Diplomatic Breakthrough (DEAL PATH)
- Brent Target
- $80-90 by Q3
- S&P 500 Impact
- Recovery rally, +5-8%
- S&P 500 by Nov 1
- +8% to +12%
- Sector Rotation
- Energy down, consumer up
- Trigger
- Trump-Xi Beijing summit Thu opens China-brokered parallel track - US-China joint statement opposing Hormuz tolls already on record. VP Vance Thu: "progress" being made in talks. Iran-Israel-Lebanon talks resume Washington Thu (Lebanon track). 14-point MoU revival would still require Iran to soften on enrichment moratorium + Hormuz sequencing, or US to accept partial framework. Pakistan/Qatar mediators publicly hopeful.
- Obstacle
- Iran FM Araghchi at BRICS Delhi (Thu) accuses UAE of direct co-belligerence - first formal Gulf-state-as-co-belligerent claim - hardens Tehran's diplomatic position rather than softening. Fujairah ship-seizure Thu directly threatens UAE bypass route. Hezbollah drone wounds Israeli civilians near border Thu; IDF responds with strikes + evacuation warnings. Trump Mon called ceasefire "on life support" after rejecting Iran's MoU response. Past framework attempts collapsed within days.
40-50% Probability ↑
Frozen Conflict / Toll Regime Persists
- Brent Target
- $95-115 sustained
- S&P 500 Impact
- Sideways, ±3%
- S&P 500 by Nov 1
- 0% to +4%
- Sector Rotation
- Energy flat-up, defensives lead
- Trigger
- Trump-Xi summit + Vance "progress" framing keep deal track alive on paper but no breakthrough; Iran's UAE-accusation hardens posture; Fujairah seizure stays single-incident; rhetoric ladder doesn't translate to Iranian energy/enrichment strikes. Iran PGSA tolling regime persists (US-China statement notwithstanding). Hormuz reopens only selectively (Qatar LNG-style permits). Israel-Lebanon front grinds - Hezbollah drone wounds Israeli civilians Thu, IDF strikes + evacuation warnings, expanded ground op preparation continues. Slow attrition without Iranian infra strikes. Aramco's 2027-stability warning underwrites sustained $95-115 band.
30-40% Probability ↑
Escalation / Infrastructure Hits
- Brent Target
- $130-150+
- S&P 500 Impact
- -10-15% correction
- S&P 500 by Nov 1
- -8% to -15%
- Sector Rotation
- Energy spikes, broad selloff
- Trigger
- Fujairah ship-seizure Thu opens UAE-east-coast bypass route to attack; Iran's BRICS-Delhi accusation of UAE direct co-belligerence sets predicate for further UAE-Iran kinetic exchange. If a second/third Fujairah-area incident follows, ADNOC export terminal directly exposed. Netanyahu "dismantled" + ground-op rhetoric still on table; Israel coordinating contingency strikes vs Iran energy/officials with US (CNN). Hezbollah drone-on-Israeli-civilians threshold crossed Thu. Russia rearming Iran via Caspian (ISW). Kharg strike / Houthi Bab al-Mandeb closure / direct Iran-Israel resumption. Iran parliament passes Hormuz toll-law 2nd reading.
◆ WATCHLIST: Names researched but not yet held - grouped by portfolio. Each entry shows Moat / Valuation / Composite score (Moat×0.6 + Val×0.4, same rubric as holdings tables) plus YTD performance, the thesis, and the trigger that would move it from watchlist → portfolio. Composite ≥ 3.5 = buy on trigger. < 3.0 = monitor only.
DC Infrastructure
ARM $221
Moat 5 / Val 2 / 3.8 · YTD +100%
Custom-CPU royalty layer for Graviton, Cobalt, Axion; v9 royalty rates accelerating in data center.
Trigger: pullback below $180, OR v9 royalty stall.
Trigger: pullback below $180, OR v9 royalty stall.
INTC $118
Moat 3 / Val 2 / 2.6 · YTD +226%
Agentic-CPU re-rate has played out. Foundry deals with Apple + Google driving the move; Granite Rapids landed in the right workload.
Trigger: pullback to $80 OR Granite Rapids miss creating asymmetric re-entry.
Trigger: pullback to $80 OR Granite Rapids miss creating asymmetric re-entry.
SMCI $32
Moat 2 / Val 3 / 2.4 · YTD +4%
AI server integrator - leverage to total servers shipped. Governance overhang lingering.
Trigger: clean audit cycle + visible margin floor.
Trigger: clean audit cycle + visible margin floor.
AI Robotics
KTOS $52
Moat 3 / Val 1 / 2.2 · YTD -30%
Defense autonomy (Valkyrie scaling to 40/yr by '28, hypersonics $400M '26 → $700M '27). Q1 strong + FY raised; market punished on Q2 guide + valuation.
Trigger: FCF inflection OR P/E < 100x. Currently ~330x with negative FCF and recent insider selling.
Trigger: FCF inflection OR P/E < 100x. Currently ~330x with negative FCF and recent insider selling.
MCHP $97
Moat 3 / Val 2 / 2.6 · YTD +56%
Motor control / microcontroller franchise - humanoid BOM exposure (every robot needs precision motion).
Trigger: pullback under $80.
Trigger: pullback under $80.
Quantum
XNDU → promoted to Quantum portfolio at 3% (May 15, 2026). Q1 print delivered: revenue +300% YoY, AMD CFD benchmark (25× CPU speedup), customer pipeline expanded (Lockheed, TELUS, Fidelity FCAT). Funded by trimming QBTS 25→22%. See Quantum tab change log for details.
QUBT $11
Moat 2 / Val 2 / 2.0 · YTD +19%
Lower-quality pure-play; basket already covers gate + annealing + photonic.
Trigger: needs material quality improvement (revenue traction or credible roadmap proof) - currently a pass.
Trigger: needs material quality improvement (revenue traction or credible roadmap proof) - currently a pass.
Private - track for IPO signal
• Atom Computing - neutral-atom quantum; well-funded.
• PsiQuantum - photonic quantum (competes with XNDU); rumored '26 listing.
• Quantinuum - HON owns ~54%, so indirect exposure via HON in Robotics.
• Anduril - defense autonomy; rumored '26 IPO.
• PsiQuantum - photonic quantum (competes with XNDU); rumored '26 listing.
• Quantinuum - HON owns ~54%, so indirect exposure via HON in Robotics.
• Anduril - defense autonomy; rumored '26 IPO.
⚠ Watchlist is a research pipeline. Not investment advice. Composite scores and triggers can change as fundamentals evolve - verify current prices and conditions before acting.
△ PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE: All three portfolios benchmarked against SPY and QQQ since April 10, 2026. Returns are weighted by holding allocations. Data refreshed daily from Yahoo Finance close prices.
Cumulative Return Since April 10, 2026
Summary
| Portfolio | Return | vs SPY | vs QQQ |
|---|
⚠ Returns are computed from closing prices and reflect model portfolios -- no transaction costs, slippage, or taxes are included. Not investment advice.
⚡ DC INFRASTRUCTURE PORTFOLIO - FINALIZED: 15 holdings, conviction-weighted. $1,000,000 notional. Entry date: April 10, 2026. Thesis: Custom silicon, optical networking, power/cooling, and construction names benefiting from AI data center infrastructure buildout. ● LOCKED
Today’s Movers (│Δ│ ≥ 5%)
MRVL -16.74%
Worst-in-basket sympathy hit — PHLX -8.5% on Broadcom guide reset + hot jobs print despite Marvell’s own raised FY27/FY28 outlook a week ago; high-beta AI-semis got purged first.
MU -13.25%
AVGO-driven AI-semis sympathy sell-off plus memory-pricing-peak concerns and recent insider sales heading into Jun-24 earnings.
AMD -10.86%
Institutional de-risking off Broadcom guide + jobs print; valuation worry after run above $546 mid-week, geopolitical uncertainty rounds out the tape.
COHR -10.64%
AI-optics sympathy with GLW + Broadcom-driven AI-semi flush; the Nvidia→optical thesis got duration-discounted along with the rest of the stack.
MPWR -10.38%
Broadcom-driven AI capex reset + jobs-print rate squeeze; Blackwell-supplier overhang from March still in the back of the mind for the high-multiple power name.
GLW -10.18%
Sell-the-news: post-NVDA/Meta optical deal rally cooled when management reiterated rather than raised near-term targets; insider sales + valuation worries collided with the Broadcom-led semi flush.
LRCX -9.85%
US chip-shipment restrictions to China headline + Broadcom guide + analyst downgrades stacked on a fab-equipment basket already wobbling on the AI-capex pace reset.
AVGO -7.92%
FQ2 beat (rev $22.2B, +48% YoY) but Q3 AI semi guide ~$16B came in ~$1.2B light vs Street and CEO only reiterated (not raised) the $100B+ FY27 AI target — classic sell-the-news after a 40%+ pre-print run.
VRT -7.23%
DC-power/cooling beta to the AI-capex narrative; if Broadcom’s guide is the first sign of an AI-spend ceiling, Vertiv’s above-trend backlog math gets re-rated.
ANET -7.07%
Broad reassessment of AI-linked names + insider sales + valuation concerns; the AVGO-print read-through hits Arista directly on networking ASIC competition narrative.
ASML -6.58%
Six-session win streak snapped — Barclays + Morningstar downgrades earlier this week + CEO flagging potential EU Commission strategic-project control, layered onto the broader semi sell-off.
NVDA -6.20%
The bellwether takes the Broadcom guide-miss read-through head-on — if hyperscaler AI spend is plateauing earlier than priced, Nvidia’s multiple gets re-cut first. Jobs-print rate squeeze compounds.
APH -5.42%
Connector-to-AI-rack beta to the Broadcom guide-miss narrative; sells with the rest of the AI-spend pick-and-shovel stack.
ETN -5.42%
DC-power infrastructure name caught in the AI-capex repricing; long-duration backlog discounted further by the post-jobs-print rate move.
$1,241,444
Portfolio Value
+$241,452
Total P&L
+24.15%
Return
SPY: +8.55%
vs S&P 500
QQQ: +15.38%
vs NASDAQ 100
Holdings
| Ticker | Company | Role in Stack | Moat | Value | Score | Weight % | Shares | Entry Price | Current Price | P&L % | P&L $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | Nvidia | GPU/AI accelerator silicon powering DC compute | 5 | 4 | 4.6 | 11.0% | 583.1 | $188.63 | $205.10 | +8.73% | +$9,604 |
| AVGO | Broadcom | Custom AI chips (Google TPUs) and networking ASICs | 5 | 3 | 4.2 | 9.0% | 242.2 | $371.55 | $385.73 | +3.82% | +$3,434 |
| APH | Amphenol | High-speed connectors and cables for every DC server rack | 5 | 3 | 4.2 | 8.0% | 568.3 | $140.75 | $138.81 | -1.38% | $-1,103 |
| ETN | Eaton Corp | Power management: switchgear, UPS, PDUs for DC electrical systems | 5 | 3 | 4.2 | 8.0% | 198.5 | $403.00 | $395.94 | -1.75% | $-1,401 |
| MRVL | Marvell Technology | Custom AI accelerator ASICs for hyperscale DC workloads | 4 | 3 | 3.6 | 7.0% | 544.7 | $128.49 | $263.47 | +105.05% | +$73,524 |
| COHR | Coherent | Optical transceivers, lasers, and photonics for 800G/1.6T DC interconnects | 4 | 3 | 3.6 | 7.0% | 227.6 | $307.50 | $376.99 | +22.60% | +$15,816 |
| ANET | Arista Networks | High-speed Ethernet switching for DC network fabrics | 4 | 3 | 3.6 | 6.0% | 407.1 | $147.35 | $154.27 | +4.70% | +$2,817 |
| MU | Micron Technology | HBM and DRAM memory for AI training/inference | 3 | 5 | 3.8 | 7.0% | 166.4 | $420.59 | $864.01 | +105.43% | +$73,785 |
| ASML | ASML Holding | Sole maker of EUV lithography machines for leading-edge chip fabrication | 5 | 2 | 3.8 | 7.0% | 47.4 | $1,478.28 | $1,641.74 | +11.06% | +$7,748 |
| LRCX | Lam Research | Dominant etch equipment (45% share) for advanced chip fabrication | 5 | 2 | 3.5 | 5.0% | 189.6 | $263.66 | $303.28 | +15.03% | +$7,512 |
| VRT | Vertiv Holdings | Power distribution and thermal/cooling infrastructure | 4 | 2 | 3.2 | 5.0% | 169.4 | $295.11 | $300.51 | +1.83% | +$915 |
| GEV | GE Vernova | Power generation and grid equipment for DC energy demand | 4 | 2 | 3.2 | 5.0% | 50.4 | $991.32 | $933.61 | -5.82% | $-2,909 |
| GLW | Corning | Optical fiber and specialty glass for DC connectivity | 4 | 2 | 3.2 | 5.0% | 291.9 | $171.24 | $177.58 | +3.70% | +$1,851 |
| AMD | Advanced Micro Devices | DC GPUs and server CPUs; growing AI accelerator share vs Nvidia | 4 | 3 | 3.3 | 5.0% | 204.0 | $245.04 | $466.38 | +90.33% | +$45,153 |
| MPWR | Monolithic Power Systems | Dominant high-density power management ICs for AI GPU racks | 5 | 2 | 3.3 | 5.0% | 37.0 | $1,353.85 | $1,481.05 | +9.40% | +$4,706 |
Benchmark Comparison
S&P 500 (SPY)
$737.55
Entry: $679.46 (Apr 10) | +8.55%
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ)
$705.06
Entry: $611.07 (Apr 10) | +15.38%
Change Log
Apr 14, 2026 - Fractional Shares + Live Prices
Switched to fractional share counts (1 decimal) for precise $1M notional allocation.
NVDA weight adjusted from 10% to 11% (DC portfolio) to correct weights summing to 99%.
Integrated Finnhub API for live price updates. SPY/QQQ benchmarks corrected to Apr 10 closes ($679.46/$611.07).
Prices update daily at 7:30 AM ET via automated cron.
Apr 12, 2026 - Portfolio Finalized (v3)
OUT: AMKR (3.0, weak OSAT moat), MOD (3.0, commoditized cooling), EME (3.4, contractor moat)
IN: LRCX (3.5, 45% etch market share), AMD (3.3, growing DC GPU share + Meta deal), MPWR (3.3, dominant AI power delivery)
Moat floor raised from 3.0 to 3.2. Average moat improved from 4.0 to 4.2. MRVL adjusted to 7%, ANET to 6%. Entry prices: Apr 10 close.
⚠ This is a model portfolio for tracking purposes only. Not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.