Daily Audio Brief
~2 min · Iran/Gulf · Rachel
⚠ Day 151 / Wednesday — The pause shatters and two stories collide: Iran fired multiple ballistic missiles at US forces (all intercepted by CENTCOM) and the IRGC seized three tankers in Hormuz, ending a several-day lull and snapping the war premium back on — Brent reversed higher to ~$87-88 and WTI to ~$82 (~+4-5%) after two down sessions. The Oman three-lane consortium off-ramp stalls: Iran rejected Oman's joint-management proposal and reasserted full control of the strait, while the US naval blockade stays in effect. But the dominant tape story is elsewhere — a broad AI/memory-chip selloff (SK Hynix -16%, Samsung -10%, Nasdaq -~10% off its June high on AI-capex-ROI fears and China domestic-tool progress) that clubbed all three growth baskets: Corning -17% on soft Q3 optical guidance, Micron/Marvell/Lam and the DC-infra chip complex down 6-12%, quantum names down 5-10%. The US SPR remains at its lowest since 1983 (~311M bbl). Net: the Gulf re-armed and growth got hit — a rare day where both the conflict leg AND the growth baskets move against the book, with the FOMC decision landing at 2pm ET.
- Diplomacy: The off-ramp collapses back into kinetic exchange. The multi-day mutual pause broke overnight: Iran fired multiple ballistic missiles at US forces in the region — all intercepted by CENTCOM, no reported casualties — and the US says it also thwarted a separate surprise attack on US troops. The Oman consortium proposal stalled: Iran rejected Oman's plan for joint management of the strait via three traffic lanes and reasserted that Hormuz is under its full control. Iran continues to deny direct US talks (FM spokesman Baghaei), while Trump earlier claimed "very deep talks" — the contradiction now looks resolved in Tehran's favor. Qatar/Pakistan mediators still report "progress," but the missile launches undercut it. Separately, the US and Saudi Arabia struck Iran-backed groups in Iraq blamed for drone attacks on Saudi oil facilities, and Saudi FM Faisal spoke with Iran's Araghchi on Hormuz de-confliction. Net: re-escalatory — the truce is gone and the next US move is the swing factor.
- Oil: Sharp reversal higher — the premium snaps back on the missile strike + tanker seizures. Brent ~$87-88 (feeds spanning ~$84.67 to ~$88.53, up ~+3.8-5.3% intraday) and WTI ~$82 (~$81.99, +~3.4%) after two straight down sessions had stripped the war premium out. The driver: Iran's ballistic-missile launch at US forces plus the IRGC halting three tankers in the strait re-armed the geopolitical bid the market had just bled off. Brent-WTI spread ~$5; Dubai's premium to Brent firming again as prompt-barrel risk returns. War premium back to roughly ~$9-19/bbl over a pre-war ~$69 WTI / ~$78-79 Brent baseline. Analysts see Brent ranging $80-$100 as the conflict's intensity ebbs and flows; the $120+ tail (Goldman) is re-arming — a sustained kinetic exchange or a Gulf energy-infra hit is the path there (cycle peak ~$126 Brent / ~$117 WTI in late April).
- Shipping: Hormuz is hard shut again — fresh seizures and a rejected reopening plan. The IRGC Navy intercepted three tankers today, saying they ignored warnings and violated navigation rules (identities undisclosed), and Iran rejected Oman's proposal for joint management of the waterway — removing the near-term reopening catalyst. The US naval blockade remains in effect (redirecting/boarding vessels), and the strait has been largely blocked since Feb 28. The IMO warns against transits without credible security guarantees. War-risk hull cover stays elevated — marine war-risk premiums have moved to ~7.5-10% of hull value on some quotes (from a 1-3% norm), with single-VLCC cover reported topping $10M per transit; insurers are selective/voyage-specific and increasingly hesitant on Saudi-linked vessels, and these costs are now described as structural, not temporary. Bab al-Mandeb stays a second front — Houthi forces continue targeting Saudi-linked vessels. Saudi Arabia's East-West and the UAE's Fujairah bypass pipelines remain the pressure-relief valves at near-full capacity.
- Energy adjacency: Qatari LNG (~25% of global LNG) stays physically gated by Hormuz with the strait shut and the Oman plan rejected — the LNG transit-gap risk is back on rather than easing. TTF stays structurally firm (mid-€40s/MWh) and firms with crude's reversal; US Henry Hub ~$2.9-3.1, domestic gas insulated and US LNG the relative winner. On the consumer side, June CPI (released Jul 14) showed a 9.7% m/m drop in gasoline that pulled headline CPI -0.4% m/m — but that predates the mid-July spike, and today's crude reversal re-adds pump-price pass-through risk into the July/August prints. The Red Sea re-routing tax persists as a second insurance/freight drag.
- Macro spillover: The FOMC decision lands at 2pm ET today with a hawkish hold the near-unanimous base case (104/104 economists in Reuters' poll see no change) at 3.50-3.75% — a fifth straight hold — but CME FedWatch still prices a ~35% hike (up from 12% a week ago), so a surprise is a live tail; markets broadly carry two hikes by year-end (Sept/Oct). Chair Warsh (2:30pm presser) has run a "less is more" comms style, adding uncertainty. Today's crude reversal re-adds inflation-tail risk just as the FOMC decides. The bigger macro signal is the AI-capex reassessment — the memory/chip selloff (SK Hynix -16%, Samsung -10%) reflects investor doubt on datacenter-spend ROI and Chinese domestic-tool progress, a direct hit to the growth-basket thesis. The SPR at a 1983 low keeps the policy shock-absorber thin. On defense capex, LMT and RTX both raised 2026 guidance as the Pentagon restocks — a structural tailwind that the re-escalation reinforces.
- Portfolio read: A rare both-legs-against day. On the conflict side the re-escalation re-arms the oil bid and reinforces the defense leg (LMT/RTX) — the one part of the book that's bid today. But the dominant move is the AI/memory-chip selloff hammering all three growth baskets, which are war-insulated but not selloff-insulated — their P&L is set by the SOX cycle and AI-capex sentiment, both of which cracked. DC Infra took the brunt (Corning -12%, Micron -9%, AMD -8%, chip complex broadly red) but still leads YTD at +11.8%; Robotics +1.9% (AMAT -8%); Quantum -18.2%, the deepest drawdown, down another 5-10% across IONQ/RGTI/QBTS. So today: defense + oil bid, growth clubbed. The near-term swing factors are the 2pm FOMC (hawkish hold base case, ~35% hike tail) and whether Iran's missiles draw a US response. Live marks below.
Triggers to watch
• US response to the missile strike — Iran's ballistic-missile launch at US forces broke the pause; whether Washington retaliates (and how hard) is the single biggest swing factor for the war premium and the $120+ tail.
• Oman plan is dead for now — Iran rejected the three-lane consortium and reasserted full control of Hormuz; the near-term reopening catalyst is off the table, keeping the physical outage and elevated war-risk cover in place.
• Saudi/UAE energy-infra hit — with US+Saudi strikes on Iran-backed groups in Iraq and drones hitting Saudi facilities, a direct hit on Gulf production/export infra is the clearest lever to snap Brent toward $120+ (Goldman's tail).
• AI-capex reassessment — the memory/chip selloff (SK Hynix -16%, Samsung -10%) is the dominant risk to the growth book; watch Lam Research earnings (today, after close) and whether the datacenter-ROI doubt deepens or stabilizes.
• FOMC decision at 2pm ET — a hike is still live — hawkish hold at 3.50-3.75% is the base case but FedWatch prices ~35% for a hike; today's oil reversal re-adds the CPI tail, and a hawkish surprise would compound the growth-book pressure. Warsh presser (2:30pm) is the key read.
• Oman plan is dead for now — Iran rejected the three-lane consortium and reasserted full control of Hormuz; the near-term reopening catalyst is off the table, keeping the physical outage and elevated war-risk cover in place.
• Saudi/UAE energy-infra hit — with US+Saudi strikes on Iran-backed groups in Iraq and drones hitting Saudi facilities, a direct hit on Gulf production/export infra is the clearest lever to snap Brent toward $120+ (Goldman's tail).
• AI-capex reassessment — the memory/chip selloff (SK Hynix -16%, Samsung -10%) is the dominant risk to the growth book; watch Lam Research earnings (today, after close) and whether the datacenter-ROI doubt deepens or stabilizes.
• FOMC decision at 2pm ET — a hike is still live — hawkish hold at 3.50-3.75% is the base case but FedWatch prices ~35% for a hike; today's oil reversal re-adds the CPI tail, and a hawkish surprise would compound the growth-book pressure. Warsh presser (2:30pm) is the key read.
Risk Indicators
Hormuz Status
HARD SHUT — IRGC SEIZES THREE TANKERS, REJECTS OMAN REOPENING PLAN; US BLOCKADE STILL ACTIVE
Day 151. The strait has been largely blocked since Feb 28. Today the IRGC Navy intercepted three tankers for "violating navigation rules" and Iran rejected Oman's joint-management proposal, reasserting full control of the waterway — removing the near-term reopening catalyst. The US naval blockade stays in effect (redirecting/boarding ships), and the IMO warns against transits without credible security guarantees. Hull war-risk cover has moved to ~7.5-10% of hull value on some quotes (from a 1-3% norm), with single-VLCC cover reported topping $10M per transit; insurers selective/voyage-specific and hesitant on Saudi-linked vessels — costs now described as structural. Saudi E-W and UAE Fujairah bypass lines at near-full capacity.
Brent War Premium
~$9-19/bbl — snapping back on the missile strike + tanker seizures
Brent ~$87-88 / WTI ~$82 — reversed higher (~+4-5%) today after two down sessions, driven by Iran's ballistic-missile launch at US forces and the IRGC halting three tankers. Brent-WTI spread ~$5; Dubai's premium firming again as prompt-barrel risk returns. Premium vs a ~$69 WTI / ~$78-79 Brent pre-war baseline. Scenarios: pause restored + strait reopens → premium fades to $5-10, Brent high-$70s; kinetic exchange continues but no infra hit → $9-19 (analysts see $80-100 range); sustained strikes or a Gulf energy-infra hit → snaps to $40+ (Goldman's $120+ tail, cycle peak ~$126).
Paper vs Physical Gap
Gap re-widening — paper snaps higher on the kinetic re-escalation while physical stays hard-gated
Brent-WTI ~$5 (Brent ~$87-88 / WTI ~$82) as the geopolitical bid re-arms; Dubai's premium for non-Hormuz Gulf grades is firming again. Paper reversed higher on the missile strike + tanker seizures, and the physical outage is deepening — three fresh seizures, Oman plan rejected, strait still shut. The tape prices a re-escalating partial outage with OPEC+ spare, US +1.2M b/d, and Saudi/UAE bypass routes cushioning. Gap widens violently on a US retaliation or a Gulf energy-infra strike; it compresses only on a restored pause and an actual Hormuz reopening.
U.S. Energy Insulation
+1.2M bbl/day
13.6M vs 12.4M pre-war domestic production
SPR Level
~44% filled — LOWEST SINCE 1983
~311M bbl / 714M capacity | Lowest level since 1983 after a ~99M-bbl draw since March | 10yr range: 44-94% (311M-638M bbl) | The shock-absorber is now thin just as the physical Hormuz outage bites
Supply at Risk - Global Snapshot
~18M
bbl/day at risk (Hormuz)
RESTORED
Saudi E-W pipeline + Manifa
3.2M
bbl/day diverted (Red Sea)
~37 days
SPR buffer — lowest since 1983
+1.2M
bbl/day US surplus vs pre-war
■ S&P 500 FORECAST: Probability-weighted expected return by Nov 1, 2026: -3% to +3% | Day 79: Iran formalized the Strait via the new Persian Gulf Strait Authority — tolls up to $2M/ship in yuan/BTC, US blockade running in parallel. Trump signals "few days" patience window. Brent $108.09 / WTI $101.78 / Dubai ~$104.50; spread $6.31, war premium ~$38. Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed chair into a 3.8% CPI / structural-expectations-at-19-yr-high backdrop — Fed minutes leaned toward removing the easing bias. The big tape signal of the day was the Trump $2B/9-company quantum CHIPS announcement: every quantum holding ripped (QBTS +33, RGTI +31, ARQQ +26), and AI-optics (GLW/COHR/ANET +5-6%) joined the bid. Diplomatic ladder is symbolic; toll regime is structural; portfolio engine is government-of-quantum + AI-optics.
15-25% Probability ↓↓
Hormuz Reopens / Diplomatic Breakthrough (DEAL PATH)
- Brent Target
- $80-90 by Q3
- S&P 500 Impact
- Recovery rally, +5-8%
- S&P 500 by Nov 1
- +8% to +12%
- Sector Rotation
- Energy down, consumer up
- Trigger
- Trump-Xi Beijing summit Thu opens China-brokered parallel track - US-China joint statement opposing Hormuz tolls already on record. VP Vance Thu: "progress" being made in talks. Iran-Israel-Lebanon talks resume Washington Thu (Lebanon track). 14-point MoU revival would still require Iran to soften on enrichment moratorium + Hormuz sequencing, or US to accept partial framework. Pakistan/Qatar mediators publicly hopeful.
- Obstacle
- Iran FM Araghchi at BRICS Delhi (Thu) accuses UAE of direct co-belligerence - first formal Gulf-state-as-co-belligerent claim - hardens Tehran's diplomatic position rather than softening. Fujairah ship-seizure Thu directly threatens UAE bypass route. Hezbollah drone wounds Israeli civilians near border Thu; IDF responds with strikes + evacuation warnings. Trump Mon called ceasefire "on life support" after rejecting Iran's MoU response. Past framework attempts collapsed within days.
40-50% Probability ↑
Frozen Conflict / Toll Regime Persists
- Brent Target
- $95-115 sustained
- S&P 500 Impact
- Sideways, ±3%
- S&P 500 by Nov 1
- 0% to +4%
- Sector Rotation
- Energy flat-up, defensives lead
- Trigger
- Trump-Xi summit + Vance "progress" framing keep deal track alive on paper but no breakthrough; Iran's UAE-accusation hardens posture; Fujairah seizure stays single-incident; rhetoric ladder doesn't translate to Iranian energy/enrichment strikes. Iran PGSA tolling regime persists (US-China statement notwithstanding). Hormuz reopens only selectively (Qatar LNG-style permits). Israel-Lebanon front grinds - Hezbollah drone wounds Israeli civilians Thu, IDF strikes + evacuation warnings, expanded ground op preparation continues. Slow attrition without Iranian infra strikes. Aramco's 2027-stability warning underwrites sustained $95-115 band.
30-40% Probability ↑
Escalation / Infrastructure Hits
- Brent Target
- $130-150+
- S&P 500 Impact
- -10-15% correction
- S&P 500 by Nov 1
- -8% to -15%
- Sector Rotation
- Energy spikes, broad selloff
- Trigger
- Fujairah ship-seizure Thu opens UAE-east-coast bypass route to attack; Iran's BRICS-Delhi accusation of UAE direct co-belligerence sets predicate for further UAE-Iran kinetic exchange. If a second/third Fujairah-area incident follows, ADNOC export terminal directly exposed. Netanyahu "dismantled" + ground-op rhetoric still on table; Israel coordinating contingency strikes vs Iran energy/officials with US (CNN). Hezbollah drone-on-Israeli-civilians threshold crossed Thu. Russia rearming Iran via Caspian (ISW). Kharg strike / Houthi Bab al-Mandeb closure / direct Iran-Israel resumption. Iran parliament passes Hormuz toll-law 2nd reading.
◆ WATCHLIST: Names researched but not yet held - grouped by portfolio. Each entry shows Moat / Valuation / Composite score (Moat×0.6 + Val×0.4, same rubric as holdings tables) plus YTD performance, the thesis, and the trigger that would move it from watchlist → portfolio. Composite ≥ 3.5 = buy on trigger. < 3.0 = monitor only.
DC Infrastructure
ARM $221
Moat 5 / Val 2 / 3.8 · YTD +100%
Custom-CPU royalty layer for Graviton, Cobalt, Axion; v9 royalty rates accelerating in data center.
Trigger: pullback below $180, OR v9 royalty stall.
Trigger: pullback below $180, OR v9 royalty stall.
INTC $118
Moat 3 / Val 2 / 2.6 · YTD +226%
Agentic-CPU re-rate has played out. Foundry deals with Apple + Google driving the move; Granite Rapids landed in the right workload.
Trigger: pullback to $80 OR Granite Rapids miss creating asymmetric re-entry.
Trigger: pullback to $80 OR Granite Rapids miss creating asymmetric re-entry.
SMCI $32
Moat 2 / Val 3 / 2.4 · YTD +4%
AI server integrator - leverage to total servers shipped. Governance overhang lingering.
Trigger: clean audit cycle + visible margin floor.
Trigger: clean audit cycle + visible margin floor.
AI Robotics
KTOS $52
Moat 3 / Val 1 / 2.2 · YTD -30%
Defense autonomy (Valkyrie scaling to 40/yr by '28, hypersonics $400M '26 → $700M '27). Q1 strong + FY raised; market punished on Q2 guide + valuation.
Trigger: FCF inflection OR P/E < 100x. Currently ~330x with negative FCF and recent insider selling.
Trigger: FCF inflection OR P/E < 100x. Currently ~330x with negative FCF and recent insider selling.
MCHP $97
Moat 3 / Val 2 / 2.6 · YTD +56%
Motor control / microcontroller franchise - humanoid BOM exposure (every robot needs precision motion).
Trigger: pullback under $80.
Trigger: pullback under $80.
Quantum
XNDU → promoted to Quantum portfolio at 3% (May 15, 2026). Q1 print delivered: revenue +300% YoY, AMD CFD benchmark (25× CPU speedup), customer pipeline expanded (Lockheed, TELUS, Fidelity FCAT). Funded by trimming QBTS 25→22%. See Quantum tab change log for details.
QUBT $11
Moat 2 / Val 2 / 2.0 · YTD +19%
Lower-quality pure-play; basket already covers gate + annealing + photonic.
Trigger: needs material quality improvement (revenue traction or credible roadmap proof) - currently a pass.
Trigger: needs material quality improvement (revenue traction or credible roadmap proof) - currently a pass.
Private - track for IPO signal
• Atom Computing - neutral-atom quantum; well-funded.
• PsiQuantum - photonic quantum (competes with XNDU); rumored '26 listing.
• Quantinuum - HON owns ~54%, so indirect exposure via HON in Robotics.
• Anduril - defense autonomy; rumored '26 IPO.
• PsiQuantum - photonic quantum (competes with XNDU); rumored '26 listing.
• Quantinuum - HON owns ~54%, so indirect exposure via HON in Robotics.
• Anduril - defense autonomy; rumored '26 IPO.
⚠ Watchlist is a research pipeline. Not investment advice. Composite scores and triggers can change as fundamentals evolve - verify current prices and conditions before acting.
△ PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE: All three portfolios benchmarked against SPY and QQQ since April 10, 2026. Returns are weighted by holding allocations. Data refreshed daily from Yahoo Finance close prices.
Cumulative Return Since April 10, 2026
Summary
| Portfolio | Return | vs SPY | vs QQQ |
|---|
⚠ Returns are computed from closing prices and reflect model portfolios -- no transaction costs, slippage, or taxes are included. Not investment advice.
⚡ DC INFRASTRUCTURE PORTFOLIO - FINALIZED: 15 holdings, conviction-weighted. $1,000,000 notional. Entry date: April 10, 2026. Thesis: Custom silicon, optical networking, power/cooling, and construction names benefiting from AI data center infrastructure buildout. ● LOCKED
Today’s Movers (│Δ│ ≥ 5%)
GLW -12.10%
Q2 beat but soft/in-line Q3 optical guidance ($4.9-5.0B) triggered a sell-the-news plunge; BofA cut it from its US 1 List on valuation, dragging the optical complex.
COHR -10.31%
Optical-component read-through from Corning's soft guidance plus the broad AI/memory-chip de-risking on datacenter-ROI fears.
MU -8.85%
Memory selloff on SK Hynix -16% / Samsung -10% results, China domestic-memory (CXMT) supply fears, and a $37M CEO stock sale; now ~30%+ off its June high.
AMD -8.15%
Sell-the-news after its "Advancing AI 2026" event, plus a broad memory/AI-chip de-risking and pre-earnings anxiety into the Aug 4 report.
MRVL -7.77%
Caught in the AI/custom-silicon de-risking; valuation-driven selling with the stock still well above intrinsic value estimates and heavy insider selling.
LRCX -7.54%
WFE-equipment de-risking into its fiscal Q4 print (after today's close) plus China domestic-tool progress fears weighing on the group.
VRT -6.27%
Q2 EPS beat ($1.52) but revenue missed ($3.27B vs $3.38B est); the miss fed the broader "AI-infra hopes too high" de-rating despite 24% YoY growth.
GEV -5.34%
Continued post-earnings fade (Q2 EPS missed despite 88% order surge) as the market reprices datacenter-equipment names on "expectations too high."
$1,117,915
Portfolio Value
+$117,924
Total P&L
+11.79%
Return
SPY: +9.04%
vs S&P 500
QQQ: +10.54%
vs NASDAQ 100
Holdings
| Ticker | Company | Role in Stack | Moat | Value | Score | Weight % | Shares | Entry Price | Current Price | P&L % | P&L $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | Nvidia | GPU/AI accelerator silicon powering DC compute | 5 | 4 | 4.6 | 11.0% | 583.1 | $188.63 | $197.01 | +4.44% | +$4,886 |
| AVGO | Broadcom | Custom AI chips (Google TPUs) and networking ASICs | 5 | 3 | 4.2 | 9.0% | 242.2 | $371.55 | $380.91 | +2.52% | +$2,267 |
| APH | Amphenol | High-speed connectors and cables for every DC server rack | 5 | 3 | 4.2 | 8.0% | 568.3 | $140.75 | $143.85 | +2.20% | +$1,762 |
| ETN | Eaton Corp | Power management: switchgear, UPS, PDUs for DC electrical systems | 5 | 3 | 4.2 | 8.0% | 198.5 | $403.00 | $386.26 | -4.15% | $-3,323 |
| MRVL | Marvell Technology | Custom AI accelerator ASICs for hyperscale DC workloads | 4 | 3 | 3.6 | 7.0% | 544.7 | $128.49 | $174.47 | +35.78% | +$25,045 |
| COHR | Coherent | Optical transceivers, lasers, and photonics for 800G/1.6T DC interconnects | 4 | 3 | 3.6 | 7.0% | 227.6 | $307.50 | $243.33 | -20.87% | $-14,605 |
| ANET | Arista Networks | High-speed Ethernet switching for DC network fabrics | 4 | 3 | 3.6 | 6.0% | 407.1 | $147.35 | $169.71 | +15.17% | +$9,103 |
| MU | Micron Technology | HBM and DRAM memory for AI training/inference | 3 | 5 | 3.8 | 7.0% | 166.4 | $420.59 | $820.53 | +95.09% | +$66,550 |
| ASML | ASML Holding | Sole maker of EUV lithography machines for leading-edge chip fabrication | 5 | 2 | 3.8 | 7.0% | 47.4 | $1,478.28 | $1,582.95 | +7.08% | +$4,961 |
| LRCX | Lam Research | Dominant etch equipment (45% share) for advanced chip fabrication | 5 | 2 | 3.5 | 5.0% | 189.6 | $263.66 | $269.61 | +2.26% | +$1,128 |
| VRT | Vertiv Holdings | Power distribution and thermal/cooling infrastructure | 4 | 2 | 3.2 | 5.0% | 169.4 | $295.11 | $269.56 | -8.66% | $-4,328 |
| GEV | GE Vernova | Power generation and grid equipment for DC energy demand | 4 | 2 | 3.2 | 5.0% | 50.4 | $991.32 | $943.38 | -4.84% | $-2,416 |
| GLW | Corning | Optical fiber and specialty glass for DC connectivity | 4 | 2 | 3.2 | 5.0% | 291.9 | $171.24 | $126.01 | -26.41% | $-13,203 |
| AMD | Advanced Micro Devices | DC GPUs and server CPUs; growing AI accelerator share vs Nvidia | 4 | 3 | 3.3 | 5.0% | 204.0 | $245.04 | $454.62 | +85.53% | +$42,754 |
| MPWR | Monolithic Power Systems | Dominant high-density power management ICs for AI GPU racks | 5 | 2 | 3.3 | 5.0% | 37.0 | $1,353.85 | $1,282.01 | -5.31% | $-2,658 |
Benchmark Comparison
S&P 500 (SPY)
$740.86
Entry: $679.46 (Apr 10) | +9.04%
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ)
$675.49
Entry: $611.07 (Apr 10) | +10.54%
Change Log
Apr 14, 2026 - Fractional Shares + Live Prices
Switched to fractional share counts (1 decimal) for precise $1M notional allocation.
NVDA weight adjusted from 10% to 11% (DC portfolio) to correct weights summing to 99%.
Integrated Finnhub API for live price updates. SPY/QQQ benchmarks corrected to Apr 10 closes ($679.46/$611.07).
Prices update daily at 7:30 AM ET via automated cron.
Apr 12, 2026 - Portfolio Finalized (v3)
OUT: AMKR (3.0, weak OSAT moat), MOD (3.0, commoditized cooling), EME (3.4, contractor moat)
IN: LRCX (3.5, 45% etch market share), AMD (3.3, growing DC GPU share + Meta deal), MPWR (3.3, dominant AI power delivery)
Moat floor raised from 3.0 to 3.2. Average moat improved from 4.0 to 4.2. MRVL adjusted to 7%, ANET to 6%. Entry prices: Apr 10 close.
⚠ This is a model portfolio for tracking purposes only. Not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.