Daily Audio Brief
~2 min · Iran/Gulf · Rachel
⚠ Day 96 — Diplomatic pivot, no kinetic flare in last 24h: Israel-Lebanon ceasefire was renewed and Trump/Rubio are publicly pitching a US-Iran framework “by this weekend.” Brent eased to ~$96.6 (-1.3% d/d), war premium ~$27. Tehran denies substantive progress; uranium-enrichment red line still unresolved. Rubio (Jun-2): Iran now negotiating items previously off-limits; IAEA’s Grossi says any new deal must look meaningfully different from 2015 JCPOA. Hormuz remains de-facto closed (Day 96) — ~57 VLCCs still stuck, ~1,600 vessels stranded — but no new incidents reported. The big tape move was a sector-wide quantum unwind as investors reassessed the policy-driven CHIPS rip: RGTI -10.4% on CTO David Rivas’ $12.7M insider sale (filed Jun-1), ARQQ -10.0%, QBTS -7.9%, LAES -6.7%. AVAV -6.3% on recirculated SCAR class-action deadline reminders. HON -5.1% ahead of Jun-29 HON/HONA spin-off split. Portfolio close (Jun-3): DC Infra +40.2%, Quantum +33.2%, Robotics +8.6%.
Diplomacy
• Israel-Lebanon ceasefire renewed (Jun-4) — the Lebanon precondition that crashed talks last week is partially addressed; one structural overhang removed.
• Trump: framework deal possible “by this weekend” — Rubio confirms Tehran now willing to negotiate items previously off-limits (interpretation: enrichment scope is in play, not just timing). Tehran publicly denies meaningful progress — standard pre-deal posturing or genuine impasse, unclear.
• IAEA reality-check: Grossi says any new agreement must differ materially from 2015 JCPOA given Iran’s post-conflict program advances; UNSC 1737/2231 review on the June calendar.
• Watchpoint: a written framework by Sunday snaps Brent back toward $85-90 and war premium to $15-20; failure-to-deliver into next week re-prices to the kinetic baseline. Asymmetric — the upside on a deal is bigger than the downside on no-deal from here.
• Trump: framework deal possible “by this weekend” — Rubio confirms Tehran now willing to negotiate items previously off-limits (interpretation: enrichment scope is in play, not just timing). Tehran publicly denies meaningful progress — standard pre-deal posturing or genuine impasse, unclear.
• IAEA reality-check: Grossi says any new agreement must differ materially from 2015 JCPOA given Iran’s post-conflict program advances; UNSC 1737/2231 review on the June calendar.
• Watchpoint: a written framework by Sunday snaps Brent back toward $85-90 and war premium to $15-20; failure-to-deliver into next week re-prices to the kinetic baseline. Asymmetric — the upside on a deal is bigger than the downside on no-deal from here.
Oil
• Brent ~$96.6 (Aug-26, -1.3% d/d) · WTI ~$95.2 (Jul-26, -0.8% d/d) · Dubai ~$104. Brent-WTI spread ~$1.4 — still compressed. Brent-Dubai inverted ~$-7.5 — paper still trailing physical despite the easing.
• War premium ~$27/bbl vs $70 pre-war anchor — -$1 d/d on the Lebanon-ceasefire-renewal + US-Iran framework chatter. BMI cut 2026 Dated Brent forecast to $88 citing improving deal-resolution odds; Street still $90-100 absent a full closure, with $150-160 spike risk if Hormuz stays choked through summer.
• EIA June STEO due Jun-10 alongside CPI — the macro set-piece pair. Six straight weeks of US crude inventory draws layer a physical-tightness floor under the easing premium.
• OPEC+ buffer: 3-4M b/d spare capacity intact; Saudi/UAE bypass routes flowing. Asymmetry remains binary on Hormuz — deal narrative carries until it doesn’t.
• War premium ~$27/bbl vs $70 pre-war anchor — -$1 d/d on the Lebanon-ceasefire-renewal + US-Iran framework chatter. BMI cut 2026 Dated Brent forecast to $88 citing improving deal-resolution odds; Street still $90-100 absent a full closure, with $150-160 spike risk if Hormuz stays choked through summer.
• EIA June STEO due Jun-10 alongside CPI — the macro set-piece pair. Six straight weeks of US crude inventory draws layer a physical-tightness floor under the easing premium.
• OPEC+ buffer: 3-4M b/d spare capacity intact; Saudi/UAE bypass routes flowing. Asymmetry remains binary on Hormuz — deal narrative carries until it doesn’t.
Shipping
• Hormuz status: de-facto closed, Day 96. No new incidents in last 24h — cooling after this week’s kinetic exchange. Iran’s “Persian Gulf Strait Authority” toll regime continues (~$2M/ship); a quarter of trapped non-Iranian tankers (29 of 109) have now exited since Feb-28, some with US informational support.
• Insurance: war-risk premiums ~2-6% of vessel value per transit (~1% of H&M value) — off March peaks (~10%) but still 4-8x pre-war floors. Major underwriters (Gard, Skuld) still not writing standard hull war cover; US $20B DFC maritime reinsurance facility remains the load-bearing wall.
• ~1,600 vessels / ~22,500 mariners stranded; 57 loaded VLCCs still stuck in/around the Strait (Jun-2 count). Industry view: full normalization not before end-2026; some owners won’t redeploy even after reopening.
• Next thresholds: full IRGC mining/blockade, Saudi/UAE infra hit, US ground casualties. None tripped in last 24h.
• Insurance: war-risk premiums ~2-6% of vessel value per transit (~1% of H&M value) — off March peaks (~10%) but still 4-8x pre-war floors. Major underwriters (Gard, Skuld) still not writing standard hull war cover; US $20B DFC maritime reinsurance facility remains the load-bearing wall.
• ~1,600 vessels / ~22,500 mariners stranded; 57 loaded VLCCs still stuck in/around the Strait (Jun-2 count). Industry view: full normalization not before end-2026; some owners won’t redeploy even after reopening.
• Next thresholds: full IRGC mining/blockade, Saudi/UAE infra hit, US ground casualties. None tripped in last 24h.
Energy adjacency
• TTF gas ~€48.5/MWh (-1.4% d/d) — modest mean-reversion off this week’s pop as Brent eases and Lebanon-ceasefire renewal calms the Asia-Europe LNG-tightening fear. €50 flag still in play if Hormuz traffic stays choked into Q3 (Wood Mackenzie’s ~20%-of-global-LNG-at-risk scenario). Asian LNG spot off recent highs but still bid on Mid-East shipment risk.
Macro spillover
• CPI: May print Jun-10. April ran 3.8% headline / 2.8% core; Cleveland Fed nowcast pegs May headline at ~4.1% YoY, with the curve projected to peak at ~4.5% by year-end. Energy still the dominant contributor; even with Brent easing 1-2% d/d, the May tape was loaded by the late-May kinetic.
• Fed: target 3.50–3.75%. Prediction markets ~95-98% on hold Jun-16/17 — Warsh’s first meeting as Chair + new dot plot. Consensus base case: zero cuts in 2026, energy shock treated as non-transitory. JPM Global Research now flags a 2027 hike as plausible. Goldman still the outlier with two H2 cuts.
• Defense capex: Global defense ~$2.6T 2026 (+8.1% YoY); US budget >$1T (+15% YoY). Gulf air-defense pull (NASAMS, PAC-3, THAAD) still active but no new contracts announced today. Hyperscaler AI capex $700B-$800B continues to underwrite DC Infra independent of the Gulf tape — the Nvidia→COHR capital-injection template is now the structural read for the whole AI-optics complex.
• Fed: target 3.50–3.75%. Prediction markets ~95-98% on hold Jun-16/17 — Warsh’s first meeting as Chair + new dot plot. Consensus base case: zero cuts in 2026, energy shock treated as non-transitory. JPM Global Research now flags a 2027 hike as plausible. Goldman still the outlier with two H2 cuts.
• Defense capex: Global defense ~$2.6T 2026 (+8.1% YoY); US budget >$1T (+15% YoY). Gulf air-defense pull (NASAMS, PAC-3, THAAD) still active but no new contracts announced today. Hyperscaler AI capex $700B-$800B continues to underwrite DC Infra independent of the Gulf tape — the Nvidia→COHR capital-injection template is now the structural read for the whole AI-optics complex.
Portfolio read
• DC Infra +40.2% (Jun-3 close, +0.9pp d/d): the AI-optics story held the bid even as the headline tape cooled. MPWR +4.0%, MRVL +3.7%, LRCX +2.8% extended the Computex follow-through. NVDA -3.6% the only material drag — routine profit-take, no idiosyncratic news. Basket finally has a structural floor (Nvidia-capital-injection template) independent of the Iran tape.
• Quantum +33.2% (-10.3pp d/d): the sector unwind landed. RGTI -10.4% on CTO David Rivas’ $12.7M (499k-share) insider sale disclosed Jun-1. ARQQ -10.0%, QBTS -7.9%, LAES -6.7% all caught the policy-driven-rip reassessment wave — investors re-pricing the US equity-stake CHIPS funding model (potential dilution) against still-thin revenue lines. IONQ -4.4% in sympathy. Thesis intact, but this is the first real test of the May CHIPS gains — expect choppy.
• Robotics +8.6% (-0.7pp d/d): TER +4.3% extended the Computex tape. AVAV -6.3% on recirculated SCAR class-action deadline (Jul-27); HON -5.1% ahead of Jun-29 HON/HONA spin-off. Defense sub-basket (LMT/TDY) flat — the diplomatic cooling caps the kinetic-hedge bid for now.
• Bid: AI-optics + AI-WFE (Nvidia capital-injection template). Bleeding: Quantum (sector unwind), defense (diplomatic cool). Cross-current: a written US-Iran framework lifts AI complex via rate-cut hopes but knocks defense.
• Watch: (1) US-Iran framework by Sunday; (2) Iran response to renewed Israel-Lebanon ceasefire; (3) EIA June STEO + May CPI Jun-10; (4) Warsh’s first FOMC + dot plot Jun-16/17; (5) quantum sector — does the unwind extend or reverse on fresh CHIPS announcements; (6) Hormuz incident watch — silence is fragile.
• Quantum +33.2% (-10.3pp d/d): the sector unwind landed. RGTI -10.4% on CTO David Rivas’ $12.7M (499k-share) insider sale disclosed Jun-1. ARQQ -10.0%, QBTS -7.9%, LAES -6.7% all caught the policy-driven-rip reassessment wave — investors re-pricing the US equity-stake CHIPS funding model (potential dilution) against still-thin revenue lines. IONQ -4.4% in sympathy. Thesis intact, but this is the first real test of the May CHIPS gains — expect choppy.
• Robotics +8.6% (-0.7pp d/d): TER +4.3% extended the Computex tape. AVAV -6.3% on recirculated SCAR class-action deadline (Jul-27); HON -5.1% ahead of Jun-29 HON/HONA spin-off. Defense sub-basket (LMT/TDY) flat — the diplomatic cooling caps the kinetic-hedge bid for now.
• Bid: AI-optics + AI-WFE (Nvidia capital-injection template). Bleeding: Quantum (sector unwind), defense (diplomatic cool). Cross-current: a written US-Iran framework lifts AI complex via rate-cut hopes but knocks defense.
• Watch: (1) US-Iran framework by Sunday; (2) Iran response to renewed Israel-Lebanon ceasefire; (3) EIA June STEO + May CPI Jun-10; (4) Warsh’s first FOMC + dot plot Jun-16/17; (5) quantum sector — does the unwind extend or reverse on fresh CHIPS announcements; (6) Hormuz incident watch — silence is fragile.
Risk Indicators
Hormuz Status
CLOSED — DIPLOMATIC THAW
Day 96. No new incidents in last 24h — cooling after this week’s US-Iran kinetic exchange. Israel-Lebanon ceasefire renewed (Jun-4); Trump/Rubio floating a US-Iran framework “by this weekend.” Iran’s “Persian Gulf Strait Authority” toll regime continues (~$2M/ship). War-risk premiums ~2-6% of vessel value (~1% of H&M) — off March peaks (~10%) but still 4-8x pre-war floors. Gard/Skuld still not writing standard hull war cover; US $20B DFC reinsurance facility remains the load-bearing wall. ~1,600 vessels / ~22,500 mariners stranded; 57 loaded VLCCs stuck; 29 of 109 trapped non-Iranian tankers have exited since Feb-28 (some with US support). Industry view: full normalization not before end-2026.
Brent War Premium
~$27/bbl
Brent ~$96.6 (Aug-26, -1.3% d/d) vs pre-war ~$70 anchor = ~$27 premium — -$1 d/d on Israel-Lebanon ceasefire renewal + US-Iran framework chatter. WTI ~$95.2 (-0.8%). Street range $90-100 absent a full closure; BMI cut 2026 Dated Brent forecast to $88 citing improving deal-resolution odds; $150-160 spike risk if Hormuz stays choked through summer. Asymmetric: written framework snaps premium to $15-20 (Brent $85-90); failure re-prices to $35-45 (Brent $105-115). EIA June STEO + May CPI both Jun-10.
Paper vs Physical Gap
Brent > WTI by ~$1.4
Spread holding ~$1.4 (~$96.6 Brent / ~$95.2 WTI) — still compressed vs pre-war ~$4-5. Brent-Dubai inverted ~$-7.5 (Dubai ~$104) — paper still trailing physical despite the easing. Continued kinetic narrows further toward parity; a credible US-Iran written framework re-widens as paper rallies harder than physical can fall.
U.S. Energy Insulation
+1.2M bbl/day
13.6M vs 12.4M pre-war domestic production
SPR Level
~52% filled
~372M bbl / 714M capacity | 10yr range: 50-94% (358M-638M bbl) | Post-Biden drawdown low: 50% (Oct 2023) | Near historical floor
Supply at Risk - Global Snapshot
~18M
bbl/day at risk (Hormuz)
RESTORED
Saudi E-W pipeline + Manifa
3.2M
bbl/day diverted (Red Sea)
~44 days
SPR buffer at current draw
+1.2M
bbl/day US surplus vs pre-war
■ S&P 500 FORECAST: Probability-weighted expected return by Nov 1, 2026: -3% to +3% | Day 79: Iran formalized the Strait via the new Persian Gulf Strait Authority — tolls up to $2M/ship in yuan/BTC, US blockade running in parallel. Trump signals "few days" patience window. Brent $108.09 / WTI $101.78 / Dubai ~$104.50; spread $6.31, war premium ~$38. Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed chair into a 3.8% CPI / structural-expectations-at-19-yr-high backdrop — Fed minutes leaned toward removing the easing bias. The big tape signal of the day was the Trump $2B/9-company quantum CHIPS announcement: every quantum holding ripped (QBTS +33, RGTI +31, ARQQ +26), and AI-optics (GLW/COHR/ANET +5-6%) joined the bid. Diplomatic ladder is symbolic; toll regime is structural; portfolio engine is government-of-quantum + AI-optics.
15-25% Probability ↓↓
Hormuz Reopens / Diplomatic Breakthrough (DEAL PATH)
- Brent Target
- $80-90 by Q3
- S&P 500 Impact
- Recovery rally, +5-8%
- S&P 500 by Nov 1
- +8% to +12%
- Sector Rotation
- Energy down, consumer up
- Trigger
- Trump-Xi Beijing summit Thu opens China-brokered parallel track - US-China joint statement opposing Hormuz tolls already on record. VP Vance Thu: "progress" being made in talks. Iran-Israel-Lebanon talks resume Washington Thu (Lebanon track). 14-point MoU revival would still require Iran to soften on enrichment moratorium + Hormuz sequencing, or US to accept partial framework. Pakistan/Qatar mediators publicly hopeful.
- Obstacle
- Iran FM Araghchi at BRICS Delhi (Thu) accuses UAE of direct co-belligerence - first formal Gulf-state-as-co-belligerent claim - hardens Tehran's diplomatic position rather than softening. Fujairah ship-seizure Thu directly threatens UAE bypass route. Hezbollah drone wounds Israeli civilians near border Thu; IDF responds with strikes + evacuation warnings. Trump Mon called ceasefire "on life support" after rejecting Iran's MoU response. Past framework attempts collapsed within days.
40-50% Probability ↑
Frozen Conflict / Toll Regime Persists
- Brent Target
- $95-115 sustained
- S&P 500 Impact
- Sideways, ±3%
- S&P 500 by Nov 1
- 0% to +4%
- Sector Rotation
- Energy flat-up, defensives lead
- Trigger
- Trump-Xi summit + Vance "progress" framing keep deal track alive on paper but no breakthrough; Iran's UAE-accusation hardens posture; Fujairah seizure stays single-incident; rhetoric ladder doesn't translate to Iranian energy/enrichment strikes. Iran PGSA tolling regime persists (US-China statement notwithstanding). Hormuz reopens only selectively (Qatar LNG-style permits). Israel-Lebanon front grinds - Hezbollah drone wounds Israeli civilians Thu, IDF strikes + evacuation warnings, expanded ground op preparation continues. Slow attrition without Iranian infra strikes. Aramco's 2027-stability warning underwrites sustained $95-115 band.
30-40% Probability ↑
Escalation / Infrastructure Hits
- Brent Target
- $130-150+
- S&P 500 Impact
- -10-15% correction
- S&P 500 by Nov 1
- -8% to -15%
- Sector Rotation
- Energy spikes, broad selloff
- Trigger
- Fujairah ship-seizure Thu opens UAE-east-coast bypass route to attack; Iran's BRICS-Delhi accusation of UAE direct co-belligerence sets predicate for further UAE-Iran kinetic exchange. If a second/third Fujairah-area incident follows, ADNOC export terminal directly exposed. Netanyahu "dismantled" + ground-op rhetoric still on table; Israel coordinating contingency strikes vs Iran energy/officials with US (CNN). Hezbollah drone-on-Israeli-civilians threshold crossed Thu. Russia rearming Iran via Caspian (ISW). Kharg strike / Houthi Bab al-Mandeb closure / direct Iran-Israel resumption. Iran parliament passes Hormuz toll-law 2nd reading.
◆ WATCHLIST: Names researched but not yet held - grouped by portfolio. Each entry shows Moat / Valuation / Composite score (Moat×0.6 + Val×0.4, same rubric as holdings tables) plus YTD performance, the thesis, and the trigger that would move it from watchlist → portfolio. Composite ≥ 3.5 = buy on trigger. < 3.0 = monitor only.
DC Infrastructure
ARM $221
Moat 5 / Val 2 / 3.8 · YTD +100%
Custom-CPU royalty layer for Graviton, Cobalt, Axion; v9 royalty rates accelerating in data center.
Trigger: pullback below $180, OR v9 royalty stall.
Trigger: pullback below $180, OR v9 royalty stall.
INTC $118
Moat 3 / Val 2 / 2.6 · YTD +226%
Agentic-CPU re-rate has played out. Foundry deals with Apple + Google driving the move; Granite Rapids landed in the right workload.
Trigger: pullback to $80 OR Granite Rapids miss creating asymmetric re-entry.
Trigger: pullback to $80 OR Granite Rapids miss creating asymmetric re-entry.
SMCI $32
Moat 2 / Val 3 / 2.4 · YTD +4%
AI server integrator - leverage to total servers shipped. Governance overhang lingering.
Trigger: clean audit cycle + visible margin floor.
Trigger: clean audit cycle + visible margin floor.
AI Robotics
KTOS $52
Moat 3 / Val 1 / 2.2 · YTD -30%
Defense autonomy (Valkyrie scaling to 40/yr by '28, hypersonics $400M '26 → $700M '27). Q1 strong + FY raised; market punished on Q2 guide + valuation.
Trigger: FCF inflection OR P/E < 100x. Currently ~330x with negative FCF and recent insider selling.
Trigger: FCF inflection OR P/E < 100x. Currently ~330x with negative FCF and recent insider selling.
MCHP $97
Moat 3 / Val 2 / 2.6 · YTD +56%
Motor control / microcontroller franchise - humanoid BOM exposure (every robot needs precision motion).
Trigger: pullback under $80.
Trigger: pullback under $80.
Quantum
XNDU → promoted to Quantum portfolio at 3% (May 15, 2026). Q1 print delivered: revenue +300% YoY, AMD CFD benchmark (25× CPU speedup), customer pipeline expanded (Lockheed, TELUS, Fidelity FCAT). Funded by trimming QBTS 25→22%. See Quantum tab change log for details.
QUBT $11
Moat 2 / Val 2 / 2.0 · YTD +19%
Lower-quality pure-play; basket already covers gate + annealing + photonic.
Trigger: needs material quality improvement (revenue traction or credible roadmap proof) - currently a pass.
Trigger: needs material quality improvement (revenue traction or credible roadmap proof) - currently a pass.
Private - track for IPO signal
• Atom Computing - neutral-atom quantum; well-funded.
• PsiQuantum - photonic quantum (competes with XNDU); rumored '26 listing.
• Quantinuum - HON owns ~54%, so indirect exposure via HON in Robotics.
• Anduril - defense autonomy; rumored '26 IPO.
• PsiQuantum - photonic quantum (competes with XNDU); rumored '26 listing.
• Quantinuum - HON owns ~54%, so indirect exposure via HON in Robotics.
• Anduril - defense autonomy; rumored '26 IPO.
⚠ Watchlist is a research pipeline. Not investment advice. Composite scores and triggers can change as fundamentals evolve - verify current prices and conditions before acting.
△ PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE: All three portfolios benchmarked against SPY and QQQ since April 10, 2026. Returns are weighted by holding allocations. Data refreshed daily from Yahoo Finance close prices.
Cumulative Return Since April 10, 2026
Summary
| Portfolio | Return | vs SPY | vs QQQ |
|---|
⚠ Returns are computed from closing prices and reflect model portfolios -- no transaction costs, slippage, or taxes are included. Not investment advice.
⚡ DC INFRASTRUCTURE PORTFOLIO - FINALIZED: 15 holdings, conviction-weighted. $1,000,000 notional. Entry date: April 10, 2026. Thesis: Custom silicon, optical networking, power/cooling, and construction names benefiting from AI data center infrastructure buildout. ● LOCKED
$1,402,032
Portfolio Value
+$402,040
Total P&L
+40.20%
Return
SPY: +11.01%
vs S&P 500
QQQ: +21.79%
vs NASDAQ 100
Holdings
| Ticker | Company | Role in Stack | Moat | Value | Score | Weight % | Shares | Entry Price | Current Price | P&L % | P&L $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | Nvidia | GPU/AI accelerator silicon powering DC compute | 5 | 4 | 4.6 | 11.0% | 583.1 | $188.63 | $214.75 | +13.85% | +$15,231 |
| AVGO | Broadcom | Custom AI chips (Google TPUs) and networking ASICs | 5 | 3 | 4.2 | 9.0% | 242.2 | $371.55 | $479.23 | +28.98% | +$26,080 |
| APH | Amphenol | High-speed connectors and cables for every DC server rack | 5 | 3 | 4.2 | 8.0% | 568.3 | $140.75 | $147.62 | +4.88% | +$3,904 |
| ETN | Eaton Corp | Power management: switchgear, UPS, PDUs for DC electrical systems | 5 | 3 | 4.2 | 8.0% | 198.5 | $403.00 | $421.21 | +4.52% | +$3,615 |
| MRVL | Marvell Technology | Custom AI accelerator ASICs for hyperscale DC workloads | 4 | 3 | 3.6 | 7.0% | 544.7 | $128.49 | $301.65 | +134.77% | +$94,320 |
| COHR | Coherent | Optical transceivers, lasers, and photonics for 800G/1.6T DC interconnects | 4 | 3 | 3.6 | 7.0% | 227.6 | $307.50 | $417.43 | +35.75% | +$25,020 |
| ANET | Arista Networks | High-speed Ethernet switching for DC network fabrics | 4 | 3 | 3.6 | 6.0% | 407.1 | $147.35 | $174.37 | +18.34% | +$11,000 |
| MU | Micron Technology | HBM and DRAM memory for AI training/inference | 3 | 5 | 3.8 | 7.0% | 166.4 | $420.59 | $1,079.57 | +156.68% | +$109,654 |
| ASML | ASML Holding | Sole maker of EUV lithography machines for leading-edge chip fabrication | 5 | 2 | 3.8 | 7.0% | 47.4 | $1,478.28 | $1,726.36 | +16.78% | +$11,759 |
| LRCX | Lam Research | Dominant etch equipment (45% share) for advanced chip fabrication | 5 | 2 | 3.5 | 5.0% | 189.6 | $263.66 | $343.71 | +30.36% | +$15,177 |
| VRT | Vertiv Holdings | Power distribution and thermal/cooling infrastructure | 4 | 2 | 3.2 | 5.0% | 169.4 | $295.11 | $331.44 | +12.31% | +$6,154 |
| GEV | GE Vernova | Power generation and grid equipment for DC energy demand | 4 | 2 | 3.2 | 5.0% | 50.4 | $991.32 | $959.36 | -3.22% | $-1,611 |
| GLW | Corning | Optical fiber and specialty glass for DC connectivity | 4 | 2 | 3.2 | 5.0% | 291.9 | $171.24 | $200.76 | +17.24% | +$8,617 |
| AMD | Advanced Micro Devices | DC GPUs and server CPUs; growing AI accelerator share vs Nvidia | 4 | 3 | 3.3 | 5.0% | 204.0 | $245.04 | $542.52 | +121.40% | +$60,686 |
| MPWR | Monolithic Power Systems | Dominant high-density power management ICs for AI GPU racks | 5 | 2 | 3.3 | 5.0% | 37.0 | $1,353.85 | $1,689.89 | +24.82% | +$12,433 |
Benchmark Comparison
S&P 500 (SPY)
$754.24
Entry: $679.46 (Apr 10) | +11.01%
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ)
$744.21
Entry: $611.07 (Apr 10) | +21.79%
Change Log
Apr 14, 2026 - Fractional Shares + Live Prices
Switched to fractional share counts (1 decimal) for precise $1M notional allocation.
NVDA weight adjusted from 10% to 11% (DC portfolio) to correct weights summing to 99%.
Integrated Finnhub API for live price updates. SPY/QQQ benchmarks corrected to Apr 10 closes ($679.46/$611.07).
Prices update daily at 7:30 AM ET via automated cron.
Apr 12, 2026 - Portfolio Finalized (v3)
OUT: AMKR (3.0, weak OSAT moat), MOD (3.0, commoditized cooling), EME (3.4, contractor moat)
IN: LRCX (3.5, 45% etch market share), AMD (3.3, growing DC GPU share + Meta deal), MPWR (3.3, dominant AI power delivery)
Moat floor raised from 3.0 to 3.2. Average moat improved from 4.0 to 4.2. MRVL adjusted to 7%, ANET to 6%. Entry prices: Apr 10 close.
⚠ This is a model portfolio for tracking purposes only. Not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.