Daily Audio Brief
~2 min · Iran/Gulf · Rachel
⚠ Day 156 / Monday — The war premium is unwinding hard. Crude is cratering intraday — Brent ~$83-84 (−~7%) / WTI ~$79.6 (−~4.6%) — as Trump says US-Iran talks resume today and OPEC+ adds a 5th straight monthly hike (+188k b/d for Aug). The counter-signal: Iran's Foreign Ministry denies any direct US talks — only Oman-mediated Hormuz-route talks (said to be in final stages), and Tehran insists the strait "will not return to pre-Feb-28 status." A tanker was still struck near Oman Aug 2 (UKMTO). So paper is pricing de-escalation faster than the physical picture confirms it. War-risk hull cover stays ~3-10%; SPR still at its 1983 low (~311M bbl); FOMC still 3.50-3.75%. Portfolio marks are Friday's close (weekend markets shut) — DC Infra held its Q2-earnings blowouts at +17.1% YTD (ahead of QQQ). Net: for the first time the risk premium is coming out of the tape — a clean disinflationary tailwind if diplomacy sticks, but Iran's denial + live incidents mean the snap-back tail is still armed.
- Diplomacy: Momentum, but the two sides don't agree on the facts. Trump says US-Iran talks resume today (Aug 3), expressing optimism on reopening Hormuz and addressing Iran's nuclear program; he claims he called off a strike at Gulf allies' urging (Saudi/UAE/Qatar). But Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson (Baqaei) explicitly denied any negotiations are underway with the US. What Iran does confirm: Oman-mediated talks on a Hormuz transit route, reportedly in final stages — but Tehran insists any deal "will in no way return the strait to its pre-Feb-28 status." Mediators are separately trying to revive the collapsed June MOU (open Hormuz 60 days, no fees, renewed ceasefire). Net: the direction is de-escalatory and the market is running with it, but the US-Iran channel is contested — confirmation vs. denial is the whole game.
- Oil: Sharp risk-off unwind — the premium is bleeding on the open. Intraday Aug 3: Brent ~$83-84 (−~7% from a $90.12 Fri close) / WTI ~$79.6 (−~4.6% from $84.67). Brent-WTI spread ~$4; Dubai's premium easing as prompt-barrel fear recedes. War premium now roughly ~$5-15/bbl over a pre-war ~$69 WTI / ~$78-79 Brent baseline — down from ~$11-21 Friday. Three drivers stacking: (1) Trump's talks-resume headline, (2) OPEC+ 5th straight hike (+188k b/d for Aug), (3) tanker traffic normalizing off the mid-June ceasefire baseline. Structural tightness still caps the downside — the 2026 deficit ~1.5M b/d persists. Q3 forecasts span $74 (EIA) to $85-98 (Goldman/high-case). Two-sided from here: sustained diplomacy pulls toward the low-$70s; an Iran denial hardening or fresh incident re-arms the $120+ tail (cycle peak ~$126 Brent in April).
- Shipping: Normalizing on the surface, still a war-risk zone underneath. Tanker traffic through Hormuz is recovering and accelerating off the mid-June ceasefire baseline — the single biggest reason paper is de-rating. But the physical picture isn't clean: a tanker was struck near Oman Aug 2 (UKMTO; crew safe), and GPS spoofing/jamming warnings persist off Fujairah. War-risk hull cover stays elevated and voyage-specific — quotes now span a wide ~1.5% to 10% of hull value (from a ~0.1-0.25% norm) depending on flag/owner/route; underwriters reprice within hours of any incident. Notably, the Persian/Arabian Gulf, Gulf of Oman and Southern Red Sea were re-designated Additional Premium Areas effective Aug 7 — so cover stays structurally expensive even as transits resume. Iran and Oman finalizing a new mutually-acceptable route; annual policies still not being written for the Gulf (voyage-by-voyage only). Bab al-Mandeb remains a second front on Houthi risk.
- Energy adjacency: Qatari LNG (~25% of global LNG) still transits Hormuz, so the transit-gap tail eases as traffic normalizes — a relief for European buyers. TTF stays structurally firm (mid-€40s/MWh) but the acute spike risk is deflating with crude; US Henry Hub ~$2.9-3.1, domestic gas insulated and US LNG the relative winner. Consumer read: June CPI showed a 9.7% m/m gasoline drop that pulled headline CPI -0.4% m/m (annual eased to 3.5% from 4.2%, core 2.6%). July's crude spike had re-armed pump-price pass-through into the Jul/Aug prints — but today's crude crack, if it holds, pulls that inflation tail back down before it fully feeds through. US pump prices ~$4.09/gal in late July.
- Macro spillover: The FOMC held at 3.50-3.75% Jul 29 — a fifth straight hold — with markets discounting ~a one-in-three hike chance and Sept/Oct hike risk live; the 30yr yield sits near a 19-year peak on sticky-inflation worry. Today's crude unwind is the cleanest disinflationary development in weeks — Brent down ~7% bleeds the premium out of the CPI path and takes pressure off the hike case (the earlier ceasefire helped drop headline CPI to 3.5% from 4.2%). The move from ~$90 to ~$83 Brent, if sustained, meaningfully softens the Aug/Sept print risk. The SPR at a 1983 low keeps the shock-absorber thin; GDP growth a steady ~2.0-2.1%. On defense capex, the Pentagon restock thesis holds — elevated-spending trend keeps the LMT/RTX tailwind intact — but a durable de-escalation trims the acute war bid, so the energy/defense hedge gives back some of its recent outperformance on days like today.
- Portfolio read: Marks are Friday's close; today's crude unwind is a net tailwind for the growth baskets. The three growth baskets are war-insulated, not selloff-insulated, so a receding premium + softening CPI path is squarely constructive for them. Friday's Q2 earnings carried the tape: DC Infra led on datacenter/power blowouts — MPWR +8.4%, ETN +7.3%, VRT +6.2%, ANET/COHR +5.5% (MU gave back -5.9%) — holding the basket at +17.1% YTD, ahead of QQQ. Robotics +3.5%; Quantum deepest in the hole at -15.4% YTD into its Aug 5-6 earnings cluster. SPY +9.9% / QQQ +12.6% for reference. The energy/defense hedge is the release valve: on de-escalation days it gives back some outperformance while the growth sleeves catch a bid — exactly the two-way design working. Swing factors: whether Iran's denial hardens or softens, and whether the chip bid holds into AMD/ANET (Aug 4), IonQ (Aug 5), Rigetti/D-Wave (Aug 6). Live marks below.
Triggers to watch
• Do the US-Iran talks materialize? — Trump says talks resume today; Iran's FM denies any direct US channel exists (only Oman-mediated route talks). Confirmation keeps the premium bleeding; a hard Iranian rejection snaps crude back up.
• Does the crude unwind hold? — Brent −~7% / WTI −~4.6% intraday on talks + OPEC+ supply. A sustained move toward the low-$70s is a clean disinflationary tailwind; a reversal re-arms the $120+ tail.
• Hormuz on the water — traffic is normalizing, but a tanker was struck near Oman Aug 2 and the Gulf/Gulf-of-Oman/S-Red-Sea are re-designated war-risk Additional Premium Areas effective Aug 7. Any fresh incident reprices cover within hours.
• Does the earnings bid hold? — DC-Infra Q2 blowouts (MPWR, ETN, VRT) carried the basket. Watch AMD/ANET (Aug 4), IonQ (Aug 5), Rigetti/D-Wave (Aug 6) to confirm datacenter-ROI confidence is durable.
• Sticky-inflation / rates — ~1-in-3 hike odds priced and a 30yr yield near a 19-year peak; today's crude crack takes pressure off the inflation tail and is the cleanest disinflationary relief for the growth baskets in weeks — if it sticks.
• Does the crude unwind hold? — Brent −~7% / WTI −~4.6% intraday on talks + OPEC+ supply. A sustained move toward the low-$70s is a clean disinflationary tailwind; a reversal re-arms the $120+ tail.
• Hormuz on the water — traffic is normalizing, but a tanker was struck near Oman Aug 2 and the Gulf/Gulf-of-Oman/S-Red-Sea are re-designated war-risk Additional Premium Areas effective Aug 7. Any fresh incident reprices cover within hours.
• Does the earnings bid hold? — DC-Infra Q2 blowouts (MPWR, ETN, VRT) carried the basket. Watch AMD/ANET (Aug 4), IonQ (Aug 5), Rigetti/D-Wave (Aug 6) to confirm datacenter-ROI confidence is durable.
• Sticky-inflation / rates — ~1-in-3 hike odds priced and a 30yr yield near a 19-year peak; today's crude crack takes pressure off the inflation tail and is the cleanest disinflationary relief for the growth baskets in weeks — if it sticks.
Risk Indicators
Hormuz Status
CONTESTED / NORMALIZING — TRAFFIC RECOVERING ON DIPLOMACY, BUT STILL A WAR-RISK ZONE AND A TANKER WAS STRUCK AUG 2
Day 156. The shift: tanker traffic through Hormuz is recovering and accelerating off the mid-June ceasefire baseline — the main reason paper is de-rating. Trump says US-Iran talks resume today; Iran denies a direct US channel but confirms Oman-mediated route talks in final stages (while insisting the strait won't return to pre-Feb-28 status). Still not clean: a tanker was struck near Oman Aug 2 (UKMTO; crew safe) and GPS spoofing/jamming warnings persist off Fujairah. War-risk hull cover stays elevated and voyage-specific — quotes span ~1.5-10% of hull value (from ~0.1-0.25% norm), repriced within hours of any incident. The Gulf, Gulf of Oman and S-Red-Sea are re-designated Additional Premium Areas effective Aug 7, keeping cover structurally expensive even as transits resume. Iran/Oman finalizing a new mutually-acceptable route. The tell to watch: whether the talks hold or Iran's denial hardens.
Brent War Premium
~$5-15/bbl — bleeding out intraday on talks + OPEC+ supply
Brent ~$83-84 (−~7%) / WTI ~$79.6 (−~4.6%) intraday Aug 3, from a $90.12 / $84.67 Friday settle. Brent-WTI spread ~$4; Dubai's premium easing. Premium vs a ~$69 WTI / ~$78-79 Brent pre-war baseline, down from ~$11-21 Friday. Three drivers: Trump's talks-resume headline, OPEC+ 5th straight hike (+188k b/d Aug), and Hormuz traffic normalizing. Structural tightness still caps downside — 2026 deficit ~1.5M b/d. Scenarios: talks hold → premium keeps bleeding toward the low-$70s (Q3 EIA $74); Iran's denial hardens → stalls here; fresh incident/escalation → snaps back toward the $120+ tail (cycle peak ~$126).
Paper vs Physical Gap
Gap compressing — paper de-rating fast on diplomacy as physical flow normalizes
Brent-WTI ~$4 (Brent ~$83-84 / WTI ~$79.6 intraday); Dubai's premium for non-Hormuz Gulf grades easing. Paper is re-pricing lower on the talks headline + OPEC+ supply, and physical is catching up on the same side — Hormuz traffic recovering, though a tanker was struck Aug 2 and cover stays war-zone-priced. The tape is moving from a contested-outage premium toward a fundamentals read (OPEC+ spare, US +1.2M b/d, Saudi/UAE bypass). Gap keeps compressing if talks hold; it re-widens violently on any fresh incident or an Iranian walk-back.
U.S. Energy Insulation
+1.2M bbl/day
13.6M vs 12.4M pre-war domestic production
SPR Level
~44% filled — LOWEST SINCE 1983
~311M bbl / 714M capacity | Lowest level since 1983 after a ~99M-bbl draw since March | 10yr range: 44-94% (311M-638M bbl) | The shock-absorber is now thin just as the physical Hormuz outage bites
Supply at Risk - Global Snapshot
~18M
bbl/day at risk (Hormuz)
RESTORED
Saudi E-W pipeline + Manifa
3.2M
bbl/day diverted (Red Sea)
~37 days
SPR buffer — lowest since 1983
+1.2M
bbl/day US surplus vs pre-war
■ S&P 500 FORECAST: Probability-weighted expected return by Nov 1, 2026: -3% to +3% | Day 79: Iran formalized the Strait via the new Persian Gulf Strait Authority — tolls up to $2M/ship in yuan/BTC, US blockade running in parallel. Trump signals "few days" patience window. Brent $108.09 / WTI $101.78 / Dubai ~$104.50; spread $6.31, war premium ~$38. Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed chair into a 3.8% CPI / structural-expectations-at-19-yr-high backdrop — Fed minutes leaned toward removing the easing bias. The big tape signal of the day was the Trump $2B/9-company quantum CHIPS announcement: every quantum holding ripped (QBTS +33, RGTI +31, ARQQ +26), and AI-optics (GLW/COHR/ANET +5-6%) joined the bid. Diplomatic ladder is symbolic; toll regime is structural; portfolio engine is government-of-quantum + AI-optics.
15-25% Probability ↓↓
Hormuz Reopens / Diplomatic Breakthrough (DEAL PATH)
- Brent Target
- $80-90 by Q3
- S&P 500 Impact
- Recovery rally, +5-8%
- S&P 500 by Nov 1
- +8% to +12%
- Sector Rotation
- Energy down, consumer up
- Trigger
- Trump-Xi Beijing summit Thu opens China-brokered parallel track - US-China joint statement opposing Hormuz tolls already on record. VP Vance Thu: "progress" being made in talks. Iran-Israel-Lebanon talks resume Washington Thu (Lebanon track). 14-point MoU revival would still require Iran to soften on enrichment moratorium + Hormuz sequencing, or US to accept partial framework. Pakistan/Qatar mediators publicly hopeful.
- Obstacle
- Iran FM Araghchi at BRICS Delhi (Thu) accuses UAE of direct co-belligerence - first formal Gulf-state-as-co-belligerent claim - hardens Tehran's diplomatic position rather than softening. Fujairah ship-seizure Thu directly threatens UAE bypass route. Hezbollah drone wounds Israeli civilians near border Thu; IDF responds with strikes + evacuation warnings. Trump Mon called ceasefire "on life support" after rejecting Iran's MoU response. Past framework attempts collapsed within days.
40-50% Probability ↑
Frozen Conflict / Toll Regime Persists
- Brent Target
- $95-115 sustained
- S&P 500 Impact
- Sideways, ±3%
- S&P 500 by Nov 1
- 0% to +4%
- Sector Rotation
- Energy flat-up, defensives lead
- Trigger
- Trump-Xi summit + Vance "progress" framing keep deal track alive on paper but no breakthrough; Iran's UAE-accusation hardens posture; Fujairah seizure stays single-incident; rhetoric ladder doesn't translate to Iranian energy/enrichment strikes. Iran PGSA tolling regime persists (US-China statement notwithstanding). Hormuz reopens only selectively (Qatar LNG-style permits). Israel-Lebanon front grinds - Hezbollah drone wounds Israeli civilians Thu, IDF strikes + evacuation warnings, expanded ground op preparation continues. Slow attrition without Iranian infra strikes. Aramco's 2027-stability warning underwrites sustained $95-115 band.
30-40% Probability ↑
Escalation / Infrastructure Hits
- Brent Target
- $130-150+
- S&P 500 Impact
- -10-15% correction
- S&P 500 by Nov 1
- -8% to -15%
- Sector Rotation
- Energy spikes, broad selloff
- Trigger
- Fujairah ship-seizure Thu opens UAE-east-coast bypass route to attack; Iran's BRICS-Delhi accusation of UAE direct co-belligerence sets predicate for further UAE-Iran kinetic exchange. If a second/third Fujairah-area incident follows, ADNOC export terminal directly exposed. Netanyahu "dismantled" + ground-op rhetoric still on table; Israel coordinating contingency strikes vs Iran energy/officials with US (CNN). Hezbollah drone-on-Israeli-civilians threshold crossed Thu. Russia rearming Iran via Caspian (ISW). Kharg strike / Houthi Bab al-Mandeb closure / direct Iran-Israel resumption. Iran parliament passes Hormuz toll-law 2nd reading.
◆ WATCHLIST: Names researched but not yet held - grouped by portfolio. Each entry shows Moat / Valuation / Composite score (Moat×0.6 + Val×0.4, same rubric as holdings tables) plus YTD performance, the thesis, and the trigger that would move it from watchlist → portfolio. Composite ≥ 3.5 = buy on trigger. < 3.0 = monitor only.
DC Infrastructure
ARM $221
Moat 5 / Val 2 / 3.8 · YTD +100%
Custom-CPU royalty layer for Graviton, Cobalt, Axion; v9 royalty rates accelerating in data center.
Trigger: pullback below $180, OR v9 royalty stall.
Trigger: pullback below $180, OR v9 royalty stall.
INTC $118
Moat 3 / Val 2 / 2.6 · YTD +226%
Agentic-CPU re-rate has played out. Foundry deals with Apple + Google driving the move; Granite Rapids landed in the right workload.
Trigger: pullback to $80 OR Granite Rapids miss creating asymmetric re-entry.
Trigger: pullback to $80 OR Granite Rapids miss creating asymmetric re-entry.
SMCI $32
Moat 2 / Val 3 / 2.4 · YTD +4%
AI server integrator - leverage to total servers shipped. Governance overhang lingering.
Trigger: clean audit cycle + visible margin floor.
Trigger: clean audit cycle + visible margin floor.
AI Robotics
KTOS $52
Moat 3 / Val 1 / 2.2 · YTD -30%
Defense autonomy (Valkyrie scaling to 40/yr by '28, hypersonics $400M '26 → $700M '27). Q1 strong + FY raised; market punished on Q2 guide + valuation.
Trigger: FCF inflection OR P/E < 100x. Currently ~330x with negative FCF and recent insider selling.
Trigger: FCF inflection OR P/E < 100x. Currently ~330x with negative FCF and recent insider selling.
MCHP $97
Moat 3 / Val 2 / 2.6 · YTD +56%
Motor control / microcontroller franchise - humanoid BOM exposure (every robot needs precision motion).
Trigger: pullback under $80.
Trigger: pullback under $80.
Quantum
XNDU → promoted to Quantum portfolio at 3% (May 15, 2026). Q1 print delivered: revenue +300% YoY, AMD CFD benchmark (25× CPU speedup), customer pipeline expanded (Lockheed, TELUS, Fidelity FCAT). Funded by trimming QBTS 25→22%. See Quantum tab change log for details.
QUBT $11
Moat 2 / Val 2 / 2.0 · YTD +19%
Lower-quality pure-play; basket already covers gate + annealing + photonic.
Trigger: needs material quality improvement (revenue traction or credible roadmap proof) - currently a pass.
Trigger: needs material quality improvement (revenue traction or credible roadmap proof) - currently a pass.
Private - track for IPO signal
• Atom Computing - neutral-atom quantum; well-funded.
• PsiQuantum - photonic quantum (competes with XNDU); rumored '26 listing.
• Quantinuum - HON owns ~54%, so indirect exposure via HON in Robotics.
• Anduril - defense autonomy; rumored '26 IPO.
• PsiQuantum - photonic quantum (competes with XNDU); rumored '26 listing.
• Quantinuum - HON owns ~54%, so indirect exposure via HON in Robotics.
• Anduril - defense autonomy; rumored '26 IPO.
⚠ Watchlist is a research pipeline. Not investment advice. Composite scores and triggers can change as fundamentals evolve - verify current prices and conditions before acting.
△ PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE: All three portfolios benchmarked against SPY and QQQ since April 10, 2026. Returns are weighted by holding allocations. Data refreshed daily from Yahoo Finance close prices.
Cumulative Return Since April 10, 2026
Summary
| Portfolio | Return | vs SPY | vs QQQ |
|---|
⚠ Returns are computed from closing prices and reflect model portfolios -- no transaction costs, slippage, or taxes are included. Not investment advice.
⚡ DC INFRASTRUCTURE PORTFOLIO - FINALIZED: 15 holdings, conviction-weighted. $1,000,000 notional. Entry date: April 10, 2026. Thesis: Custom silicon, optical networking, power/cooling, and construction names benefiting from AI data center infrastructure buildout. ● LOCKED
Today’s Movers (│Δ│ ≥ 5%)
MPWR +8.35%
Q2 blowout — record $980.6M revenue (+47.6% YoY), EPS $6.50 vs $5.88 est; raised enterprise-data growth guide to 130% and added $500M buyback.
ETN +7.32%
Q2 beat — record adj EPS $3.15 and $8.5B revenue; datacenter backlog +43% YoY, raised full-year organic-growth guide to 11-13%.
VRT +6.18%
Q2 beat — adj EPS +60%, net sales +24% YoY; raised full-year guidance across all metrics on AI-datacenter thermal demand.
MU -5.90%
Profit-taking after Thursday's +18% rip — pared on rate-hike jitters, Burry short disclosure, and China memory-competition fears; JPM calls the dip a buy.
COHR +5.55%
AI-optics bid ahead of Aug 12 earnings on the NVIDIA co-packaged-optics partnership and new Alibaba CPO tie-up; datacenter-ROI confidence firming.
ANET +5.46%
Ran to $180 into Aug 4 earnings on raised 2026 guidance and strong AI-networking demand; Azure strength reaffirmed the build-out.
$1,171,311
Portfolio Value
+$171,320
Total P&L
+17.13%
Return
SPY: +9.94%
vs S&P 500
QQQ: +12.59%
vs NASDAQ 100
Holdings
| Ticker | Company | Role in Stack | Moat | Value | Score | Weight % | Shares | Entry Price | Current Price | P&L % | P&L $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | Nvidia | GPU/AI accelerator silicon powering DC compute | 5 | 4 | 4.6 | 11.0% | 583.1 | $188.63 | $200.75 | +6.43% | +$7,067 |
| AVGO | Broadcom | Custom AI chips (Google TPUs) and networking ASICs | 5 | 3 | 4.2 | 9.0% | 242.2 | $371.55 | $389.28 | +4.77% | +$4,294 |
| APH | Amphenol | High-speed connectors and cables for every DC server rack | 5 | 3 | 4.2 | 8.0% | 568.3 | $140.75 | $160.70 | +14.17% | +$11,338 |
| ETN | Eaton Corp | Power management: switchgear, UPS, PDUs for DC electrical systems | 5 | 3 | 4.2 | 8.0% | 198.5 | $403.00 | $415.20 | +3.03% | +$2,422 |
| MRVL | Marvell Technology | Custom AI accelerator ASICs for hyperscale DC workloads | 4 | 3 | 3.6 | 7.0% | 544.7 | $128.49 | $187.56 | +45.97% | +$32,175 |
| COHR | Coherent | Optical transceivers, lasers, and photonics for 800G/1.6T DC interconnects | 4 | 3 | 3.6 | 7.0% | 227.6 | $307.50 | $262.89 | -14.51% | $-10,153 |
| ANET | Arista Networks | High-speed Ethernet switching for DC network fabrics | 4 | 3 | 3.6 | 6.0% | 407.1 | $147.35 | $180.35 | +22.40% | +$13,434 |
| MU | Micron Technology | HBM and DRAM memory for AI training/inference | 3 | 5 | 3.8 | 7.0% | 166.4 | $420.59 | $823.03 | +95.68% | +$66,966 |
| ASML | ASML Holding | Sole maker of EUV lithography machines for leading-edge chip fabrication | 5 | 2 | 3.8 | 7.0% | 47.4 | $1,478.28 | $1,629.00 | +10.20% | +$7,144 |
| LRCX | Lam Research | Dominant etch equipment (45% share) for advanced chip fabrication | 5 | 2 | 3.5 | 5.0% | 189.6 | $263.66 | $293.02 | +11.14% | +$5,567 |
| VRT | Vertiv Holdings | Power distribution and thermal/cooling infrastructure | 4 | 2 | 3.2 | 5.0% | 169.4 | $295.11 | $241.57 | -18.14% | $-9,070 |
| GEV | GE Vernova | Power generation and grid equipment for DC energy demand | 4 | 2 | 3.2 | 5.0% | 50.4 | $991.32 | $990.29 | -0.10% | $-52 |
| GLW | Corning | Optical fiber and specialty glass for DC connectivity | 4 | 2 | 3.2 | 5.0% | 291.9 | $171.24 | $138.25 | -19.27% | $-9,630 |
| AMD | Advanced Micro Devices | DC GPUs and server CPUs; growing AI accelerator share vs Nvidia | 4 | 3 | 3.3 | 5.0% | 204.0 | $245.04 | $476.15 | +94.32% | +$47,146 |
| MPWR | Monolithic Power Systems | Dominant high-density power management ICs for AI GPU racks | 5 | 2 | 3.3 | 5.0% | 37.0 | $1,353.85 | $1,426.03 | +5.33% | +$2,671 |
Benchmark Comparison
S&P 500 (SPY)
$747.03
Entry: $679.46 (Apr 10) | +9.94%
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ)
$687.99
Entry: $611.07 (Apr 10) | +12.59%
Change Log
Apr 14, 2026 - Fractional Shares + Live Prices
Switched to fractional share counts (1 decimal) for precise $1M notional allocation.
NVDA weight adjusted from 10% to 11% (DC portfolio) to correct weights summing to 99%.
Integrated Finnhub API for live price updates. SPY/QQQ benchmarks corrected to Apr 10 closes ($679.46/$611.07).
Prices update daily at 7:30 AM ET via automated cron.
Apr 12, 2026 - Portfolio Finalized (v3)
OUT: AMKR (3.0, weak OSAT moat), MOD (3.0, commoditized cooling), EME (3.4, contractor moat)
IN: LRCX (3.5, 45% etch market share), AMD (3.3, growing DC GPU share + Meta deal), MPWR (3.3, dominant AI power delivery)
Moat floor raised from 3.0 to 3.2. Average moat improved from 4.0 to 4.2. MRVL adjusted to 7%, ANET to 6%. Entry prices: Apr 10 close.
⚠ This is a model portfolio for tracking purposes only. Not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.