Daily Audio Brief
~2 min · Iran/Gulf · Rachel
⚠ Day 94 — Iran formally suspends indirect US talks; fragile 60-day ceasefire fraying as Israel resumes Lebanon ops; Hormuz still functionally closed; Brent steady ~$95 with war premium ~$25. Tehran linked the suspension to Israel’s southern-Lebanon advance and “severely undermined trust” in Washington’s mixed signals. Trump claimed a brokered Israel-Hezbollah halt on Jun-1; Netanyahu publicly rejected the framing within hours and said operations continue. UNSC emergency session today. AI-infrastructure tape ripped at the open on Computex 2026: Huang called MRVL the “next trillion-dollar company,” unveiled RTX Spark + Vera Rubin in full production; MRVL +7.0%, ANET +7.0%, MU +6.6%, NVDA +6.3%. Portfolio close (Jun-1): DC Infra +30.2%, Quantum +38.9%, Robotics +7.8%.
Diplomacy
• Iran formally suspends indirect talks with Washington (Jun-2) — first hard pause in months. Tehran cites Israel’s Lebanon ops as a breach of “all-fronts” ceasefire framing and Washington’s contradictory positions. Two new conditions still in play: Lebanon ceasefire enforcement + frozen-funds release.
• Trump–Netanyahu split in public view — Trump (Jun-1) claimed a brokered Israel-Hezbollah halt; Netanyahu rejected within hours, said southern Lebanon ops continue as planned. Hezbollah cites ceasefire breaches and continues fire. UNSC emergency session today on the Lebanon advance.
• MoU off the table for now — Trump pen now gates against a hotter tape, not a cooler one. Pakistan/Qatar mediation channel quiet.
• Watchpoint: any Tehran walk-back of the Lebanon-precondition, or a US partial concession on frozen funds, would re-open the deal path. Absent that, war premium sustains through June.
• Trump–Netanyahu split in public view — Trump (Jun-1) claimed a brokered Israel-Hezbollah halt; Netanyahu rejected within hours, said southern Lebanon ops continue as planned. Hezbollah cites ceasefire breaches and continues fire. UNSC emergency session today on the Lebanon advance.
• MoU off the table for now — Trump pen now gates against a hotter tape, not a cooler one. Pakistan/Qatar mediation channel quiet.
• Watchpoint: any Tehran walk-back of the Lebanon-precondition, or a US partial concession on frozen funds, would re-open the deal path. Absent that, war premium sustains through June.
Oil
• Brent ~$95.0 (Aug-26 $94.06–$95.04 Jun-2) · WTI ~$92.0 (Jul-26 $91.01–$91.99) · Dubai ~$103. Brent-WTI spread ~$3, stable. Brent-Dubai inverted ~$-8 — physical Gulf cargo still trading at a premium to paper but the gap narrowed vs Friday’s ~$-10/-11 as paper digested the talks-suspension headline.
• War premium ~$25/bbl vs $70 pre-war anchor — firmer than Friday’s $23-24. Reuters benchmarks the deal-path premium at $7–10; the residual is Hormuz-closure tape. Asymmetric: any pause/de-escalation snaps premium back to $15-20 (Brent $85-90); a hot week of two-sided strikes re-prints $33-40 (Brent $103-110).
• IEA framing: calls the Gulf disruption the largest supply shock in oil-market history; >1B barrels affected. Wood Mackenzie now modeling three LNG scenarios assuming ~20% of global supply removed. EIA June STEO is the next set-piece this week.
• OPEC+ buffer: 3-4M b/d spare capacity; Saudi/UAE bypass routes still flowing. Forecasters warning of regional product shortages by mid-June if Hormuz traffic doesn’t normalize.
• War premium ~$25/bbl vs $70 pre-war anchor — firmer than Friday’s $23-24. Reuters benchmarks the deal-path premium at $7–10; the residual is Hormuz-closure tape. Asymmetric: any pause/de-escalation snaps premium back to $15-20 (Brent $85-90); a hot week of two-sided strikes re-prints $33-40 (Brent $103-110).
• IEA framing: calls the Gulf disruption the largest supply shock in oil-market history; >1B barrels affected. Wood Mackenzie now modeling three LNG scenarios assuming ~20% of global supply removed. EIA June STEO is the next set-piece this week.
• OPEC+ buffer: 3-4M b/d spare capacity; Saudi/UAE bypass routes still flowing. Forecasters warning of regional product shortages by mid-June if Hormuz traffic doesn’t normalize.
Shipping
• Hormuz status: functionally closed, Day 94. IRGC Navy claims 24 ships transited under Iranian permission in the last 24h; US CENTCOM continues to disable/divert non-compliant vessels. Oman Maritime Security Centre issued an alert for a suspected floating mine in Omani waters of the Strait. UKMTO retains extreme war-risk classification.
• Insurance: hull war-risk premiums 1-5% of vessel value typical, up to 10% at the extreme — still ~8x pre-war. Many underwriters declining direct-Hormuz coverage; broader Mid-East Gulf pricing up to 1%. Iran’s ~$2M/ship “safe corridor” fee continues on top. DFC $20B reinsurance backstop the only thing keeping any commercial traffic alive.
• ~1,550 vessels / ~22,500 mariners stranded — unchanged. Global shipping leaders publicly demanding security guarantees before normal traffic resumes; analysts not pricing a clean resolution before year-end.
• No new major incident in the last 24h (Kuwait base intercept, Fujairah seizure prior-week). Threshold watch: Saudi/UAE infra hit, US troops engaged, or direct Iran-Israel kinetic.
• Insurance: hull war-risk premiums 1-5% of vessel value typical, up to 10% at the extreme — still ~8x pre-war. Many underwriters declining direct-Hormuz coverage; broader Mid-East Gulf pricing up to 1%. Iran’s ~$2M/ship “safe corridor” fee continues on top. DFC $20B reinsurance backstop the only thing keeping any commercial traffic alive.
• ~1,550 vessels / ~22,500 mariners stranded — unchanged. Global shipping leaders publicly demanding security guarantees before normal traffic resumes; analysts not pricing a clean resolution before year-end.
• No new major incident in the last 24h (Kuwait base intercept, Fujairah seizure prior-week). Threshold watch: Saudi/UAE infra hit, US troops engaged, or direct Iran-Israel kinetic.
Energy adjacency
• TTF gas €47.5/MWh (Jun-2, -1.9% d/d) — no material move; still below the €50 flag. EU storage gap to seasonal avg unchanged. China May LNG imports rebounded, intensifying Asia-Europe spot competition. Wood Mackenzie published three LNG scenarios with the Iran conflict removing ~20% of global supply — nothing actionable today, but a real Q3 setup if Hormuz stays choked.
Macro spillover
• CPI: Cleveland Fed nowcast for May ~3.9% headline / 2.8% core; prediction markets pricing May >3.9% and June >4.0%. JPM baseline now 3.6% YoY by Jun-26, lifted by energy + tariff pass-through. May CPI prints Jun-10. Brent steady $95+ keeps the energy contribution loaded into the June print.
• Fed: target range 3.50–3.75%. Kalshi/Polymarket ~96–98% on hold at Jun-16/17 — Warsh’s first meeting as Chair. JPM and Morgan Stanley expect hold through 2026; Goldman still sees core easing to 2.1% by YE. Hawkish chorus (Schmid, Waller, Jefferson, Bowman) treating the energy shock as non-transitory; zero cuts in 2026 fully priced.
• Defense capex: Global defense spend tracking $2.6T in 2026 (+8.1% YoY); US budget >$1T (+15% YoY), adding ~0.2pp to real GDP. Gulf air-defense pull (NASAMS, PAC-3, THAAD) continues post-Kuwait-base intercept. Hyperscaler AI capex now $700B–$800B range (Alphabet $180–190B guide, Amazon ~$200B) — underwrites DC Infra basket independent of the Gulf tape.
• Fed: target range 3.50–3.75%. Kalshi/Polymarket ~96–98% on hold at Jun-16/17 — Warsh’s first meeting as Chair. JPM and Morgan Stanley expect hold through 2026; Goldman still sees core easing to 2.1% by YE. Hawkish chorus (Schmid, Waller, Jefferson, Bowman) treating the energy shock as non-transitory; zero cuts in 2026 fully priced.
• Defense capex: Global defense spend tracking $2.6T in 2026 (+8.1% YoY); US budget >$1T (+15% YoY), adding ~0.2pp to real GDP. Gulf air-defense pull (NASAMS, PAC-3, THAAD) continues post-Kuwait-base intercept. Hyperscaler AI capex now $700B–$800B range (Alphabet $180–190B guide, Amazon ~$200B) — underwrites DC Infra basket independent of the Gulf tape.
Portfolio read
• DC Infra +30.2% (Jun-1 close): Computex tape is the engine — MRVL +7.0% (Huang “trillion-dollar” call), ANET +7.0% (XPO optics + AI-spine), MU +6.6% (HBM4 36GB + 256GB SOCAMM2), NVDA +6.3% (RTX Spark + Vera Rubin in production). Basket is fully bid; primary risk is rate repricing into a hot June CPI.
• Quantum +38.9%: post-CHIPS-rip consolidation continues. No fresh idiosyncratic catalyst today; QBTS Investor Day takeaways still digesting. LAES/RGTI profit-taking from Friday hasn’t reversed.
• Robotics +7.8%: NVDA dragged it green on Computex. Defense sub-basket (LMT/TDY/AVAV) still the cleanest macro hedge against escalation — underweighted vs the contract pace.
• Bid: AI-infra (Computex follow-through), defense (Gulf air-defense pull), domestic E&P. Unaffected: Quantum (idiosyncratic). Cross-current: AI-memory and optics are geographically insulated but rate-sensitive into a hot CPI.
• Watch: (1) any Tehran walk-back of the Lebanon-precondition or Trump concession on frozen funds; (2) Computex Day-2/3 follow-through into Wed-Thu; (3) EIA June STEO this week; (4) May CPI Jun-10; (5) Warsh’s first FOMC Jun-16/17.
• Quantum +38.9%: post-CHIPS-rip consolidation continues. No fresh idiosyncratic catalyst today; QBTS Investor Day takeaways still digesting. LAES/RGTI profit-taking from Friday hasn’t reversed.
• Robotics +7.8%: NVDA dragged it green on Computex. Defense sub-basket (LMT/TDY/AVAV) still the cleanest macro hedge against escalation — underweighted vs the contract pace.
• Bid: AI-infra (Computex follow-through), defense (Gulf air-defense pull), domestic E&P. Unaffected: Quantum (idiosyncratic). Cross-current: AI-memory and optics are geographically insulated but rate-sensitive into a hot CPI.
• Watch: (1) any Tehran walk-back of the Lebanon-precondition or Trump concession on frozen funds; (2) Computex Day-2/3 follow-through into Wed-Thu; (3) EIA June STEO this week; (4) May CPI Jun-10; (5) Warsh’s first FOMC Jun-16/17.
Risk Indicators
Hormuz Status
CLOSED — TALKS SUSPENDED
Day 94. Hormuz remains functionally closed; IRGC Navy claims 24 transits in last 24h under Iranian permission, US CENTCOM continues to disable/divert non-compliant vessels. Oman MSC alert for suspected floating mine in Omani Strait waters. Iran formally suspended indirect US talks (Jun-2), citing Israel’s Lebanon ops + contradictory US positions; conditions stack to (a) Lebanon ceasefire enforcement and (b) frozen-funds release. UNSC emergency session today. Hull war-risk premiums 1-5% typical, up to 10% extreme (~8x pre-war); many underwriters declining direct Hormuz coverage; Iran ~$2M/ship “safe corridor” fee continues. DFC $20B reinsurance backstop the only thing keeping any traffic alive. ~1,550 vessels / ~22,500 mariners stranded. No new major incident in 24h.
Brent War Premium
~$25/bbl
Brent ~$95.0 (Aug-26 $94.06–$95.04 Jun-2) vs pre-war ~$70 anchor = ~$25 premium — firmer than Friday’s $23-24 as Iran formally suspended indirect US talks. WTI ~$92. Reuters benchmarks the deal-path premium at $7–10; the residual is Hormuz-closure tape. Asymmetric: any pause/de-escalation snaps premium back to $15-20 (Brent $85-90); a hot week of two-sided strikes re-prints $33-40 (Brent $103-110). IEA calls the Gulf disruption the largest supply shock in oil-market history; EIA June STEO drop this week is the next set-piece.
Paper vs Physical Gap
Brent > WTI by ~$3
Spread ~$3 stable (~$95 Brent / ~$92 WTI). Brent-Dubai gap still inverted ~$-8 (Dubai ~$103) — physical Gulf cargo still at a premium to paper, gap narrowed from Friday’s ~$-10/-11 as paper digested the Iran-talks-suspension. Cleanest single-number gauge of remaining deal-hope in the curve. Sustained suspension narrows further toward parity; any de-escalation re-widens the inversion as paper rallies harder than physical can fall.
U.S. Energy Insulation
+1.2M bbl/day
13.6M vs 12.4M pre-war domestic production
SPR Level
~52% filled
~372M bbl / 714M capacity | 10yr range: 50-94% (358M-638M bbl) | Post-Biden drawdown low: 50% (Oct 2023) | Near historical floor
Supply at Risk - Global Snapshot
~18M
bbl/day at risk (Hormuz)
RESTORED
Saudi E-W pipeline + Manifa
3.2M
bbl/day diverted (Red Sea)
~44 days
SPR buffer at current draw
+1.2M
bbl/day US surplus vs pre-war
■ S&P 500 FORECAST: Probability-weighted expected return by Nov 1, 2026: -3% to +3% | Day 79: Iran formalized the Strait via the new Persian Gulf Strait Authority — tolls up to $2M/ship in yuan/BTC, US blockade running in parallel. Trump signals "few days" patience window. Brent $108.09 / WTI $101.78 / Dubai ~$104.50; spread $6.31, war premium ~$38. Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed chair into a 3.8% CPI / structural-expectations-at-19-yr-high backdrop — Fed minutes leaned toward removing the easing bias. The big tape signal of the day was the Trump $2B/9-company quantum CHIPS announcement: every quantum holding ripped (QBTS +33, RGTI +31, ARQQ +26), and AI-optics (GLW/COHR/ANET +5-6%) joined the bid. Diplomatic ladder is symbolic; toll regime is structural; portfolio engine is government-of-quantum + AI-optics.
15-25% Probability ↓↓
Hormuz Reopens / Diplomatic Breakthrough (DEAL PATH)
- Brent Target
- $80-90 by Q3
- S&P 500 Impact
- Recovery rally, +5-8%
- S&P 500 by Nov 1
- +8% to +12%
- Sector Rotation
- Energy down, consumer up
- Trigger
- Trump-Xi Beijing summit Thu opens China-brokered parallel track - US-China joint statement opposing Hormuz tolls already on record. VP Vance Thu: "progress" being made in talks. Iran-Israel-Lebanon talks resume Washington Thu (Lebanon track). 14-point MoU revival would still require Iran to soften on enrichment moratorium + Hormuz sequencing, or US to accept partial framework. Pakistan/Qatar mediators publicly hopeful.
- Obstacle
- Iran FM Araghchi at BRICS Delhi (Thu) accuses UAE of direct co-belligerence - first formal Gulf-state-as-co-belligerent claim - hardens Tehran's diplomatic position rather than softening. Fujairah ship-seizure Thu directly threatens UAE bypass route. Hezbollah drone wounds Israeli civilians near border Thu; IDF responds with strikes + evacuation warnings. Trump Mon called ceasefire "on life support" after rejecting Iran's MoU response. Past framework attempts collapsed within days.
40-50% Probability ↑
Frozen Conflict / Toll Regime Persists
- Brent Target
- $95-115 sustained
- S&P 500 Impact
- Sideways, ±3%
- S&P 500 by Nov 1
- 0% to +4%
- Sector Rotation
- Energy flat-up, defensives lead
- Trigger
- Trump-Xi summit + Vance "progress" framing keep deal track alive on paper but no breakthrough; Iran's UAE-accusation hardens posture; Fujairah seizure stays single-incident; rhetoric ladder doesn't translate to Iranian energy/enrichment strikes. Iran PGSA tolling regime persists (US-China statement notwithstanding). Hormuz reopens only selectively (Qatar LNG-style permits). Israel-Lebanon front grinds - Hezbollah drone wounds Israeli civilians Thu, IDF strikes + evacuation warnings, expanded ground op preparation continues. Slow attrition without Iranian infra strikes. Aramco's 2027-stability warning underwrites sustained $95-115 band.
30-40% Probability ↑
Escalation / Infrastructure Hits
- Brent Target
- $130-150+
- S&P 500 Impact
- -10-15% correction
- S&P 500 by Nov 1
- -8% to -15%
- Sector Rotation
- Energy spikes, broad selloff
- Trigger
- Fujairah ship-seizure Thu opens UAE-east-coast bypass route to attack; Iran's BRICS-Delhi accusation of UAE direct co-belligerence sets predicate for further UAE-Iran kinetic exchange. If a second/third Fujairah-area incident follows, ADNOC export terminal directly exposed. Netanyahu "dismantled" + ground-op rhetoric still on table; Israel coordinating contingency strikes vs Iran energy/officials with US (CNN). Hezbollah drone-on-Israeli-civilians threshold crossed Thu. Russia rearming Iran via Caspian (ISW). Kharg strike / Houthi Bab al-Mandeb closure / direct Iran-Israel resumption. Iran parliament passes Hormuz toll-law 2nd reading.
◆ WATCHLIST: Names researched but not yet held - grouped by portfolio. Each entry shows Moat / Valuation / Composite score (Moat×0.6 + Val×0.4, same rubric as holdings tables) plus YTD performance, the thesis, and the trigger that would move it from watchlist → portfolio. Composite ≥ 3.5 = buy on trigger. < 3.0 = monitor only.
DC Infrastructure
ARM $221
Moat 5 / Val 2 / 3.8 · YTD +100%
Custom-CPU royalty layer for Graviton, Cobalt, Axion; v9 royalty rates accelerating in data center.
Trigger: pullback below $180, OR v9 royalty stall.
Trigger: pullback below $180, OR v9 royalty stall.
INTC $118
Moat 3 / Val 2 / 2.6 · YTD +226%
Agentic-CPU re-rate has played out. Foundry deals with Apple + Google driving the move; Granite Rapids landed in the right workload.
Trigger: pullback to $80 OR Granite Rapids miss creating asymmetric re-entry.
Trigger: pullback to $80 OR Granite Rapids miss creating asymmetric re-entry.
SMCI $32
Moat 2 / Val 3 / 2.4 · YTD +4%
AI server integrator - leverage to total servers shipped. Governance overhang lingering.
Trigger: clean audit cycle + visible margin floor.
Trigger: clean audit cycle + visible margin floor.
AI Robotics
KTOS $52
Moat 3 / Val 1 / 2.2 · YTD -30%
Defense autonomy (Valkyrie scaling to 40/yr by '28, hypersonics $400M '26 → $700M '27). Q1 strong + FY raised; market punished on Q2 guide + valuation.
Trigger: FCF inflection OR P/E < 100x. Currently ~330x with negative FCF and recent insider selling.
Trigger: FCF inflection OR P/E < 100x. Currently ~330x with negative FCF and recent insider selling.
MCHP $97
Moat 3 / Val 2 / 2.6 · YTD +56%
Motor control / microcontroller franchise - humanoid BOM exposure (every robot needs precision motion).
Trigger: pullback under $80.
Trigger: pullback under $80.
Quantum
XNDU → promoted to Quantum portfolio at 3% (May 15, 2026). Q1 print delivered: revenue +300% YoY, AMD CFD benchmark (25× CPU speedup), customer pipeline expanded (Lockheed, TELUS, Fidelity FCAT). Funded by trimming QBTS 25→22%. See Quantum tab change log for details.
QUBT $11
Moat 2 / Val 2 / 2.0 · YTD +19%
Lower-quality pure-play; basket already covers gate + annealing + photonic.
Trigger: needs material quality improvement (revenue traction or credible roadmap proof) - currently a pass.
Trigger: needs material quality improvement (revenue traction or credible roadmap proof) - currently a pass.
Private - track for IPO signal
• Atom Computing - neutral-atom quantum; well-funded.
• PsiQuantum - photonic quantum (competes with XNDU); rumored '26 listing.
• Quantinuum - HON owns ~54%, so indirect exposure via HON in Robotics.
• Anduril - defense autonomy; rumored '26 IPO.
• PsiQuantum - photonic quantum (competes with XNDU); rumored '26 listing.
• Quantinuum - HON owns ~54%, so indirect exposure via HON in Robotics.
• Anduril - defense autonomy; rumored '26 IPO.
⚠ Watchlist is a research pipeline. Not investment advice. Composite scores and triggers can change as fundamentals evolve - verify current prices and conditions before acting.
△ PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE: All three portfolios benchmarked against SPY and QQQ since April 10, 2026. Returns are weighted by holding allocations. Data refreshed daily from Yahoo Finance close prices.
Cumulative Return Since April 10, 2026
Summary
| Portfolio | Return | vs SPY | vs QQQ |
|---|
⚠ Returns are computed from closing prices and reflect model portfolios -- no transaction costs, slippage, or taxes are included. Not investment advice.
⚡ DC INFRASTRUCTURE PORTFOLIO - FINALIZED: 15 holdings, conviction-weighted. $1,000,000 notional. Entry date: April 10, 2026. Thesis: Custom silicon, optical networking, power/cooling, and construction names benefiting from AI data center infrastructure buildout. ● LOCKED
Today’s Movers (│Δ│ ≥ 5%)
MRVL +7.04%
Jensen Huang called MRVL the “next trillion-dollar company” at Computex; Barclays PT to $275, Rosenblatt to $240; Teralynx T100 (102.4 Tbps AI switch silicon) launched.
ANET +7.03%
AI-networking follow-through — XPO liquid-cooled pluggable optics + 7800-series “universal AI spine” unveiled; FY26 revenue guide ~$11.5B; AI revenue tracking to more than double in 2026.
MU +6.64%
HBM sold out through FY26 + Susquehanna PT raised $600→$1,750 and UBS $535→$1,625; MU crossed $1T market cap this week (third US semi after NVDA/AVGO).
NVDA +6.26%
Computex keynote: RTX Spark PC chip launch (direct shot at Intel/AMD) + Vera Rubin rack-scale in full production; Huang says supply secured to meet AI-GPU demand. +$319B mcap day.
$1,301,444
Portfolio Value
+$301,453
Total P&L
+30.15%
Return
SPY: +11.64%
vs S&P 500
QQQ: +21.55%
vs NASDAQ 100
Holdings
| Ticker | Company | Role in Stack | Moat | Value | Score | Weight % | Shares | Entry Price | Current Price | P&L % | P&L $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | Nvidia | GPU/AI accelerator silicon powering DC compute | 5 | 4 | 4.6 | 11.0% | 583.1 | $188.63 | $224.36 | +18.94% | +$20,834 |
| AVGO | Broadcom | Custom AI chips (Google TPUs) and networking ASICs | 5 | 3 | 4.2 | 9.0% | 242.2 | $371.55 | $459.97 | +23.80% | +$21,415 |
| APH | Amphenol | High-speed connectors and cables for every DC server rack | 5 | 3 | 4.2 | 8.0% | 568.3 | $140.75 | $146.34 | +3.97% | +$3,177 |
| ETN | Eaton Corp | Power management: switchgear, UPS, PDUs for DC electrical systems | 5 | 3 | 4.2 | 8.0% | 198.5 | $403.00 | $400.08 | -0.72% | $-580 |
| MRVL | Marvell Technology | Custom AI accelerator ASICs for hyperscale DC workloads | 4 | 3 | 3.6 | 7.0% | 544.7 | $128.49 | $219.43 | +70.78% | +$49,535 |
| COHR | Coherent | Optical transceivers, lasers, and photonics for 800G/1.6T DC interconnects | 4 | 3 | 3.6 | 7.0% | 227.6 | $307.50 | $362.90 | +18.02% | +$12,609 |
| ANET | Arista Networks | High-speed Ethernet switching for DC network fabrics | 4 | 3 | 3.6 | 6.0% | 407.1 | $147.35 | $170.68 | +15.83% | +$9,498 |
| MU | Micron Technology | HBM and DRAM memory for AI training/inference | 3 | 5 | 3.8 | 7.0% | 166.4 | $420.59 | $1,035.50 | +146.20% | +$102,321 |
| ASML | ASML Holding | Sole maker of EUV lithography machines for leading-edge chip fabrication | 5 | 2 | 3.8 | 7.0% | 47.4 | $1,478.28 | $1,628.57 | +10.17% | +$7,124 |
| LRCX | Lam Research | Dominant etch equipment (45% share) for advanced chip fabrication | 5 | 2 | 3.5 | 5.0% | 189.6 | $263.66 | $317.12 | +20.28% | +$10,136 |
| VRT | Vertiv Holdings | Power distribution and thermal/cooling infrastructure | 4 | 2 | 3.2 | 5.0% | 169.4 | $295.11 | $323.39 | +9.58% | +$4,791 |
| GEV | GE Vernova | Power generation and grid equipment for DC energy demand | 4 | 2 | 3.2 | 5.0% | 50.4 | $991.32 | $950.54 | -4.11% | $-2,055 |
| GLW | Corning | Optical fiber and specialty glass for DC connectivity | 4 | 2 | 3.2 | 5.0% | 291.9 | $171.24 | $176.70 | +3.19% | +$1,594 |
| AMD | Advanced Micro Devices | DC GPUs and server CPUs; growing AI accelerator share vs Nvidia | 4 | 3 | 3.3 | 5.0% | 204.0 | $245.04 | $510.13 | +108.18% | +$54,078 |
| MPWR | Monolithic Power Systems | Dominant high-density power management ICs for AI GPU racks | 5 | 2 | 3.3 | 5.0% | 37.0 | $1,353.85 | $1,542.39 | +13.93% | +$6,976 |
Benchmark Comparison
S&P 500 (SPY)
$758.54
Entry: $679.46 (Apr 10) | +11.64%
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ)
$742.74
Entry: $611.07 (Apr 10) | +21.55%
Change Log
Apr 14, 2026 - Fractional Shares + Live Prices
Switched to fractional share counts (1 decimal) for precise $1M notional allocation.
NVDA weight adjusted from 10% to 11% (DC portfolio) to correct weights summing to 99%.
Integrated Finnhub API for live price updates. SPY/QQQ benchmarks corrected to Apr 10 closes ($679.46/$611.07).
Prices update daily at 7:30 AM ET via automated cron.
Apr 12, 2026 - Portfolio Finalized (v3)
OUT: AMKR (3.0, weak OSAT moat), MOD (3.0, commoditized cooling), EME (3.4, contractor moat)
IN: LRCX (3.5, 45% etch market share), AMD (3.3, growing DC GPU share + Meta deal), MPWR (3.3, dominant AI power delivery)
Moat floor raised from 3.0 to 3.2. Average moat improved from 4.0 to 4.2. MRVL adjusted to 7%, ANET to 6%. Entry prices: Apr 10 close.
⚠ This is a model portfolio for tracking purposes only. Not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.