Daily Audio Brief
~2 min · Iran/Gulf · Rachel
⚠ Day 99 / Sunday — Weekend held the Friday escalation — no follow-through hull strikes, but no de-escalation either. US Navy intercepts 2 more Iranian drones over Hormuz this morning (6 total in 72hrs, pattern now established); IRGC has not repeated the in-Strait tanker hit; Saudi/UAE infra not targeted. US-Iran talks publicly stalled — "deadlock" framing from Tehran, Pakistan still shuttling. No Trump MoU sign-off over the weekend. Brent $93.09 / WTI $90.54 carry over from Friday close; war premium ~$23/bbl. The week's pivot is data, not geopolitics: EIA June STEO + May CPI Wed Jun-10 (Cleveland Fed nowcast ~4.05% headline / ~2.9% core), then Warsh's first FOMC + dot plot Jun-16/17 — prediction markets ~98% on hold after Friday's hot jobs print, and the cut-curve flattening from Friday is what flushed AI-semis (PHLX -8.5%) and the quantum complex (IPO comp reset). Portfolio Jun-5 close still the operative print: DC Infra +24.2%, Quantum +15.0%, Robotics +3.7%. Monday open re-prices if drone tempo escalates to hull contact or if the MoU breaks publicly; absent that, the AI-semi/quantum reset is the dominant tape.
Diplomacy
• Talks publicly in “deadlock.” Indirect US-Iran channel via Oman/Pakistan still running but Tehran is openly saying “no tangible progress” this weekend. Pakistan Interior Min Naqvi made a third Tehran visit Sat-Sun, met FM Araghchi — messaging is push-to-table, no breakthrough. Frozen-asset release + Lebanon ceasefire precondition remain the structural blockers. No Trump MoU sign-off over the weekend; team still “consulting experts.”
• US redirecting Iranian frozen assets to Gulf allies. Treasury sources floated Sat that the US plans to channel seized Iranian assets to Gulf states for damage repair after Iran’s attacks — explicitly framed as Iranian ceasefire violation. Iran has called the US “violator of the fragile ceasefire” in response. Both sides locking in narrative for the next round of talks.
• Israel-Lebanon: IDF killed 3 senior Lebanese army officers + 4 civilians in southern Lebanon strikes Sat. Hezbollah continuing rocket fire. ISW frames southern Lebanon as effective Israeli de-facto occupation. No fresh formal track — same standoff.
• Watchpoint into Monday: Trump weekend MoU signature would short-cover everything (premium → ~$15, Brent → $83). Saudi/UAE infra hit OR US tonnage/personnel loss kills MoU (premium → $35-45, Brent → $105-115). Hard Hormuz mine campaign → $80+ premium (Brent $150+). Base case for tape is none of the above and CPI/STEO drive Monday-Wednesday.
• US redirecting Iranian frozen assets to Gulf allies. Treasury sources floated Sat that the US plans to channel seized Iranian assets to Gulf states for damage repair after Iran’s attacks — explicitly framed as Iranian ceasefire violation. Iran has called the US “violator of the fragile ceasefire” in response. Both sides locking in narrative for the next round of talks.
• Israel-Lebanon: IDF killed 3 senior Lebanese army officers + 4 civilians in southern Lebanon strikes Sat. Hezbollah continuing rocket fire. ISW frames southern Lebanon as effective Israeli de-facto occupation. No fresh formal track — same standoff.
• Watchpoint into Monday: Trump weekend MoU signature would short-cover everything (premium → ~$15, Brent → $83). Saudi/UAE infra hit OR US tonnage/personnel loss kills MoU (premium → $35-45, Brent → $105-115). Hard Hormuz mine campaign → $80+ premium (Brent $150+). Base case for tape is none of the above and CPI/STEO drive Monday-Wednesday.
Oil
• Brent $93.09 (Aug-26, Fri close — markets closed Sat/Sun) · WTI $90.54 · Dubai ~$90.46. Brent-WTI spread ~$2.5, Brent-Dubai ~$2.6 — paper-vs-physical convergence held over the weekend; weekend drone intercepts did not re-open the spread on any cash market that moved.
• War premium ~$23/bbl vs $70 pre-war anchor — unchanged over the weekend. Asymmetric set-up into Monday: MoU signature → $15 (Brent ~$83); Saudi/UAE infra hit or US personnel loss → $35-45 (Brent $105-115); hard Hormuz mine campaign → $80+ (Brent $150+). Drone-only escalation pattern is consistent with current $23 — doesn’t move the dial absent a hull or land hit.
• EIA June STEO + May CPI both Wed Jun-10. EIA has been running Brent ~$106 May/June with a glide to $89 by Q4 on ME production recovery — spot now $93 is already through that path on the way down. If STEO marks-to-market lower without changing the recovery curve, that’s a quietly bearish-for-oil revision. May CPI consensus ~4.05% headline / 2.9% core; energy-index drag on the print is what the spot tape implies.
• OPEC+ buffer: 3-4M b/d spare intact; Saudi/UAE bypass flowing; US production +1.2M b/d vs pre-war the physical floor. The clean read of the Brent tape across Friday’s kinetic and the weekend drone tempo: supply-side cushion is winning the marginal trade unless and until something demonstrably hits supply.
• War premium ~$23/bbl vs $70 pre-war anchor — unchanged over the weekend. Asymmetric set-up into Monday: MoU signature → $15 (Brent ~$83); Saudi/UAE infra hit or US personnel loss → $35-45 (Brent $105-115); hard Hormuz mine campaign → $80+ (Brent $150+). Drone-only escalation pattern is consistent with current $23 — doesn’t move the dial absent a hull or land hit.
• EIA June STEO + May CPI both Wed Jun-10. EIA has been running Brent ~$106 May/June with a glide to $89 by Q4 on ME production recovery — spot now $93 is already through that path on the way down. If STEO marks-to-market lower without changing the recovery curve, that’s a quietly bearish-for-oil revision. May CPI consensus ~4.05% headline / 2.9% core; energy-index drag on the print is what the spot tape implies.
• OPEC+ buffer: 3-4M b/d spare intact; Saudi/UAE bypass flowing; US production +1.2M b/d vs pre-war the physical floor. The clean read of the Brent tape across Friday’s kinetic and the weekend drone tempo: supply-side cushion is winning the marginal trade unless and until something demonstrably hits supply.
Shipping
• Hormuz status: officially closed, Day 99 — weekend did not produce a follow-through hull strike, but it also did not produce de-escalation. US Navy reports intercepting 2 more Iranian one-way attack drones Sun morning, bringing the 72-hour count to 6 intercepts. Iran-Oman joint-management framework still nominally in force but the IRGC “authorized transit” channel demonstrably unreliable after Friday’s tanker hit.
• Insurance — Monday’s test: AWRP entered Friday ~1% of H&M per 7-day transit (off March 2.5% / extreme 10%). Reinsurers had been pricing soft-reopen optimism through May; Friday’s hull hit + weekend drone tempo likely steps that up at Mon AM renewals — watch S&P Global / Lloyd’s prints. VLCC additional premium peaked ~$7.5M/voyage in March. Gard/Skuld still not writing standard hull war; US $20B DFC reinsurance facility remains load-bearing.
• Stranded count steady: ~1,600 vessels / ~22,500 mariners; 57 loaded VLCCs in-Strait. Exit pace ~29 of 109 trapped non-Iranian tankers had exited since Feb-28 — Friday’s tanker hit froze that over the weekend; resumption pace Mon-Tue is the real shipping signal of the week. UANI noted zero crude shipments through the US blockade in May (-90% m/m).
• Container freight spot rates +80% since late February per Lloyd’s/MEED, unchanged.
• Thresholds: Friday tripped first Iranian kinetic on Gulf-state infra (Kuwait/Bahrain salvo) and first commercial hull hit in-Strait since Feb-28. Still not tripped: Saudi/UAE infra hit, US troops engaged on ground, hard Hormuz mine re-laying campaign.
• Insurance — Monday’s test: AWRP entered Friday ~1% of H&M per 7-day transit (off March 2.5% / extreme 10%). Reinsurers had been pricing soft-reopen optimism through May; Friday’s hull hit + weekend drone tempo likely steps that up at Mon AM renewals — watch S&P Global / Lloyd’s prints. VLCC additional premium peaked ~$7.5M/voyage in March. Gard/Skuld still not writing standard hull war; US $20B DFC reinsurance facility remains load-bearing.
• Stranded count steady: ~1,600 vessels / ~22,500 mariners; 57 loaded VLCCs in-Strait. Exit pace ~29 of 109 trapped non-Iranian tankers had exited since Feb-28 — Friday’s tanker hit froze that over the weekend; resumption pace Mon-Tue is the real shipping signal of the week. UANI noted zero crude shipments through the US blockade in May (-90% m/m).
• Container freight spot rates +80% since late February per Lloyd’s/MEED, unchanged.
• Thresholds: Friday tripped first Iranian kinetic on Gulf-state infra (Kuwait/Bahrain salvo) and first commercial hull hit in-Strait since Feb-28. Still not tripped: Saudi/UAE infra hit, US troops engaged on ground, hard Hormuz mine re-laying campaign.
Macro spillover
• CPI Wed Jun-10: May print is the data event of the week. April ran 3.8% headline / 2.8% core; Cleveland Fed nowcast ~4.05% YoY headline / ~2.9% core, peaking ~4.5% by year-end on PIIE/S&P paths. Brent rolling lower (-$13 off May average) helps the print at the margin — the energy-index drag is the swing factor.
• Fed: target 3.50–3.75%. Friday’s hot May jobs print is the operative signal heading into Warsh’s first FOMC + dot plot Jun-16/17 — prediction markets ~98% on hold, cut-curve flattened. JPM’s 2027-hike call gained traction; Goldman’s Dec-2026 first-cut now looks early. Markets are no longer pricing any 2026/2027 cuts; some are flagging a potential hike by Dec-26/early-27 if CPI stays sticky. That repricing — not the kinetic — is what flushed AI-semis and quantum on Friday and is the dominant tape coming into Monday.
• Defense capex: Global ~$2.6T 2026 (+8.1% YoY), US >$1T (+15-17% YoY in FY26), DoD weapons spend +22% YoY to $113B, structural. NATO 5%-of-GDP commitment underpins multi-year visibility. But the tape signal Friday: defense did NOT bid the kinetic — LMT +0.9%, TDY -2.6%, AVAV -9.0%. Read: Street is pricing the kinetic as bounded + still inside the MoU lane, and rate-duration drag from the jobs print dominates the long-cycle contract names. Kinetic-hedge expression is suspended pending an actual MoU breakdown.
• Fed: target 3.50–3.75%. Friday’s hot May jobs print is the operative signal heading into Warsh’s first FOMC + dot plot Jun-16/17 — prediction markets ~98% on hold, cut-curve flattened. JPM’s 2027-hike call gained traction; Goldman’s Dec-2026 first-cut now looks early. Markets are no longer pricing any 2026/2027 cuts; some are flagging a potential hike by Dec-26/early-27 if CPI stays sticky. That repricing — not the kinetic — is what flushed AI-semis and quantum on Friday and is the dominant tape coming into Monday.
• Defense capex: Global ~$2.6T 2026 (+8.1% YoY), US >$1T (+15-17% YoY in FY26), DoD weapons spend +22% YoY to $113B, structural. NATO 5%-of-GDP commitment underpins multi-year visibility. But the tape signal Friday: defense did NOT bid the kinetic — LMT +0.9%, TDY -2.6%, AVAV -9.0%. Read: Street is pricing the kinetic as bounded + still inside the MoU lane, and rate-duration drag from the jobs print dominates the long-cycle contract names. Kinetic-hedge expression is suspended pending an actual MoU breakdown.
Energy adjacency
• TTF ~€48.5/MWh Fri close, +5.3% wk / +10.5% m/m / +32.8% y/y — EU gas is on watch but not pricing the weekend drone tempo. Asian LNG benchmark $18.20/MMBtu per the latest read, +75% since pre-conflict; Pakistan paid $19.13/MMBtu for a Jun-6/7 cargo — priciest in four years. Uniper publicly flagging “significant volatility” risk if Hormuz disruption coincides with summer cooling demand + EU winter restocking. €50+ TTF flag goes live next week if Iran extends the salvo to Saudi/UAE infra; absent that, TTF holds the €47-49 band.
Portfolio read
• DC Infra +24.2% (Jun-5 close, carried over weekend): basket sits at the post-Broadcom-reset level. Friday’s flush — NVDA -6.2%, MRVL -16.7%, MU -13.3%, MPWR -10.4%, GLW -10.2%, AVGO -7.9% — priced in an earlier AI-spend ceiling than was on the books. Long-term thesis (Nvidia→COHR optical, custom silicon, power/cooling) intact; near-term setup is dip-buyability into MU earnings Jun-24 vs further multiple compression if CPI prints hot Wed.
• Quantum +15.0% (Jun-5 close, carried over weekend): basket halved its YTD over two sessions on the Quantinuum-IPO-break comp reset (IONQ -13.5%, QBTS -13.7%, RGTI -14.4%, ARQQ -14.6%, LAES -12.3%). Comp-driven, not thesis-broken — but the next leg is sentiment-bound. Watch Quantinuum follow-on trading Mon for a floor signal.
• Robotics +3.7% (Jun-5 close, carried over weekend): rate-duration drag (TER -12.0%, AVAV -9.0%) + chip-equipment sympathy (AMAT -9.7%) the dominant Friday cuts. Defense slice still the cleanest hedge structurally, but it didn’t bid Friday’s kinetic — kinetic-hedge expression is suspended pending an actual MoU breakdown or Saudi/UAE infra hit.
• Bid: none over the weekend, markets closed. Bleeding: AI-semis + quantum still wear Friday’s factor stack (Broadcom guide + jobs print + Quantinuum comp + rate duration). Cross-current: hot CPI Wed would deepen the AI-semi/quantum cut and re-bid defense; soft CPI restores some cut hope and unwinds the duration squeeze.
• Watch this week: (1) Iranian drone/hull tempo in Hormuz; (2) Mon-AM AWRP renewals + transit-count resumption; (3) EIA STEO + May CPI Wed Jun-10; (4) Trump MoU sign-off or formal collapse; (5) Quantinuum follow-on Mon for quantum floor; (6) Warsh’s first FOMC + dot plot Jun-16/17; (7) MU earnings Jun-24 as the next AI-spend reset/recovery vote.
• Quantum +15.0% (Jun-5 close, carried over weekend): basket halved its YTD over two sessions on the Quantinuum-IPO-break comp reset (IONQ -13.5%, QBTS -13.7%, RGTI -14.4%, ARQQ -14.6%, LAES -12.3%). Comp-driven, not thesis-broken — but the next leg is sentiment-bound. Watch Quantinuum follow-on trading Mon for a floor signal.
• Robotics +3.7% (Jun-5 close, carried over weekend): rate-duration drag (TER -12.0%, AVAV -9.0%) + chip-equipment sympathy (AMAT -9.7%) the dominant Friday cuts. Defense slice still the cleanest hedge structurally, but it didn’t bid Friday’s kinetic — kinetic-hedge expression is suspended pending an actual MoU breakdown or Saudi/UAE infra hit.
• Bid: none over the weekend, markets closed. Bleeding: AI-semis + quantum still wear Friday’s factor stack (Broadcom guide + jobs print + Quantinuum comp + rate duration). Cross-current: hot CPI Wed would deepen the AI-semi/quantum cut and re-bid defense; soft CPI restores some cut hope and unwinds the duration squeeze.
• Watch this week: (1) Iranian drone/hull tempo in Hormuz; (2) Mon-AM AWRP renewals + transit-count resumption; (3) EIA STEO + May CPI Wed Jun-10; (4) Trump MoU sign-off or formal collapse; (5) Quantinuum follow-on Mon for quantum floor; (6) Warsh’s first FOMC + dot plot Jun-16/17; (7) MU earnings Jun-24 as the next AI-spend reset/recovery vote.
Risk Indicators
Hormuz Status
CLOSED — DRONE TEMPO HOLDING
Day 99. Weekend update: US Navy intercepts 2 more Iranian one-way attack drones over Hormuz Sun morning, bringing the 72-hr count to 6. No follow-through hull strike after Friday’s IRGC tanker hit; Saudi/UAE infra not targeted. Iran-Oman joint-management framework still nominally in force but the IRGC “authorized transit” channel demonstrably unreliable. AWRP entered Friday ~1% of H&M per 7-day transit (off March 2.5% / extreme 10%); Monday-AM renewals are the test — reinsurers had been pricing soft-reopen optimism through May. Transit-specific cover 3-5%; US/UK/Israeli-tied tonnage pays ~3x. Gard/Skuld still not writing standard hull war; US $20B DFC reinsurance facility remains the load-bearing wall. Container freight spot rates +80% since late February. ~1,600 vessels / ~22,500 mariners stranded; 57 loaded VLCCs in-Strait; ~29 of 109 trapped non-Iranian tankers had exited since Feb-28 — resumption pace Mon-Tue is the real shipping signal of the week. UANI: zero crude shipments through US blockade in May (-90% m/m).
Brent War Premium
~$23/bbl
Brent $93.09 (Aug-26, Fri close — markets closed Sat/Sun) vs pre-war ~$70 anchor = ~$23 premium. Weekend drone tempo did not move the dial on cash markets that opened (LME/Asian flat). WTI $90.54. Asymmetric set-up into Monday: Trump MoU signature → premium $15 (Brent ~$83); Saudi/UAE infra hit or US personnel loss → $35-45 (Brent $105-115); hard Hormuz mine campaign → $80+ (Brent $150+). Drone-only escalation pattern consistent with current $23. EIA June STEO + May CPI both Wed Jun-10 the data pivot.
Paper vs Physical Gap
Brent > WTI by ~$2.5
Brent-WTI spread ~$2.5 ($93.09 Brent / $90.54 WTI) — still compressed vs pre-war ~$4-5. Brent-Dubai spread ~$2.6 on the July contract (vs ~$9 in March) — paper-vs-physical convergence essentially complete and held over the weekend. Weekend drone intercepts did not re-open the spread. Japan METI still on Dubai gasoline-subsidy benchmark (since Jun-4).
U.S. Energy Insulation
+1.2M bbl/day
13.6M vs 12.4M pre-war domestic production
SPR Level
~52% filled
~372M bbl / 714M capacity | 10yr range: 50-94% (358M-638M bbl) | Post-Biden drawdown low: 50% (Oct 2023) | Near historical floor
Supply at Risk - Global Snapshot
~18M
bbl/day at risk (Hormuz)
RESTORED
Saudi E-W pipeline + Manifa
3.2M
bbl/day diverted (Red Sea)
~44 days
SPR buffer at current draw
+1.2M
bbl/day US surplus vs pre-war
■ S&P 500 FORECAST: Probability-weighted expected return by Nov 1, 2026: -3% to +3% | Day 79: Iran formalized the Strait via the new Persian Gulf Strait Authority — tolls up to $2M/ship in yuan/BTC, US blockade running in parallel. Trump signals "few days" patience window. Brent $108.09 / WTI $101.78 / Dubai ~$104.50; spread $6.31, war premium ~$38. Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed chair into a 3.8% CPI / structural-expectations-at-19-yr-high backdrop — Fed minutes leaned toward removing the easing bias. The big tape signal of the day was the Trump $2B/9-company quantum CHIPS announcement: every quantum holding ripped (QBTS +33, RGTI +31, ARQQ +26), and AI-optics (GLW/COHR/ANET +5-6%) joined the bid. Diplomatic ladder is symbolic; toll regime is structural; portfolio engine is government-of-quantum + AI-optics.
15-25% Probability ↓↓
Hormuz Reopens / Diplomatic Breakthrough (DEAL PATH)
- Brent Target
- $80-90 by Q3
- S&P 500 Impact
- Recovery rally, +5-8%
- S&P 500 by Nov 1
- +8% to +12%
- Sector Rotation
- Energy down, consumer up
- Trigger
- Trump-Xi Beijing summit Thu opens China-brokered parallel track - US-China joint statement opposing Hormuz tolls already on record. VP Vance Thu: "progress" being made in talks. Iran-Israel-Lebanon talks resume Washington Thu (Lebanon track). 14-point MoU revival would still require Iran to soften on enrichment moratorium + Hormuz sequencing, or US to accept partial framework. Pakistan/Qatar mediators publicly hopeful.
- Obstacle
- Iran FM Araghchi at BRICS Delhi (Thu) accuses UAE of direct co-belligerence - first formal Gulf-state-as-co-belligerent claim - hardens Tehran's diplomatic position rather than softening. Fujairah ship-seizure Thu directly threatens UAE bypass route. Hezbollah drone wounds Israeli civilians near border Thu; IDF responds with strikes + evacuation warnings. Trump Mon called ceasefire "on life support" after rejecting Iran's MoU response. Past framework attempts collapsed within days.
40-50% Probability ↑
Frozen Conflict / Toll Regime Persists
- Brent Target
- $95-115 sustained
- S&P 500 Impact
- Sideways, ±3%
- S&P 500 by Nov 1
- 0% to +4%
- Sector Rotation
- Energy flat-up, defensives lead
- Trigger
- Trump-Xi summit + Vance "progress" framing keep deal track alive on paper but no breakthrough; Iran's UAE-accusation hardens posture; Fujairah seizure stays single-incident; rhetoric ladder doesn't translate to Iranian energy/enrichment strikes. Iran PGSA tolling regime persists (US-China statement notwithstanding). Hormuz reopens only selectively (Qatar LNG-style permits). Israel-Lebanon front grinds - Hezbollah drone wounds Israeli civilians Thu, IDF strikes + evacuation warnings, expanded ground op preparation continues. Slow attrition without Iranian infra strikes. Aramco's 2027-stability warning underwrites sustained $95-115 band.
30-40% Probability ↑
Escalation / Infrastructure Hits
- Brent Target
- $130-150+
- S&P 500 Impact
- -10-15% correction
- S&P 500 by Nov 1
- -8% to -15%
- Sector Rotation
- Energy spikes, broad selloff
- Trigger
- Fujairah ship-seizure Thu opens UAE-east-coast bypass route to attack; Iran's BRICS-Delhi accusation of UAE direct co-belligerence sets predicate for further UAE-Iran kinetic exchange. If a second/third Fujairah-area incident follows, ADNOC export terminal directly exposed. Netanyahu "dismantled" + ground-op rhetoric still on table; Israel coordinating contingency strikes vs Iran energy/officials with US (CNN). Hezbollah drone-on-Israeli-civilians threshold crossed Thu. Russia rearming Iran via Caspian (ISW). Kharg strike / Houthi Bab al-Mandeb closure / direct Iran-Israel resumption. Iran parliament passes Hormuz toll-law 2nd reading.
◆ WATCHLIST: Names researched but not yet held - grouped by portfolio. Each entry shows Moat / Valuation / Composite score (Moat×0.6 + Val×0.4, same rubric as holdings tables) plus YTD performance, the thesis, and the trigger that would move it from watchlist → portfolio. Composite ≥ 3.5 = buy on trigger. < 3.0 = monitor only.
DC Infrastructure
ARM $221
Moat 5 / Val 2 / 3.8 · YTD +100%
Custom-CPU royalty layer for Graviton, Cobalt, Axion; v9 royalty rates accelerating in data center.
Trigger: pullback below $180, OR v9 royalty stall.
Trigger: pullback below $180, OR v9 royalty stall.
INTC $118
Moat 3 / Val 2 / 2.6 · YTD +226%
Agentic-CPU re-rate has played out. Foundry deals with Apple + Google driving the move; Granite Rapids landed in the right workload.
Trigger: pullback to $80 OR Granite Rapids miss creating asymmetric re-entry.
Trigger: pullback to $80 OR Granite Rapids miss creating asymmetric re-entry.
SMCI $32
Moat 2 / Val 3 / 2.4 · YTD +4%
AI server integrator - leverage to total servers shipped. Governance overhang lingering.
Trigger: clean audit cycle + visible margin floor.
Trigger: clean audit cycle + visible margin floor.
AI Robotics
KTOS $52
Moat 3 / Val 1 / 2.2 · YTD -30%
Defense autonomy (Valkyrie scaling to 40/yr by '28, hypersonics $400M '26 → $700M '27). Q1 strong + FY raised; market punished on Q2 guide + valuation.
Trigger: FCF inflection OR P/E < 100x. Currently ~330x with negative FCF and recent insider selling.
Trigger: FCF inflection OR P/E < 100x. Currently ~330x with negative FCF and recent insider selling.
MCHP $97
Moat 3 / Val 2 / 2.6 · YTD +56%
Motor control / microcontroller franchise - humanoid BOM exposure (every robot needs precision motion).
Trigger: pullback under $80.
Trigger: pullback under $80.
Quantum
XNDU → promoted to Quantum portfolio at 3% (May 15, 2026). Q1 print delivered: revenue +300% YoY, AMD CFD benchmark (25× CPU speedup), customer pipeline expanded (Lockheed, TELUS, Fidelity FCAT). Funded by trimming QBTS 25→22%. See Quantum tab change log for details.
QUBT $11
Moat 2 / Val 2 / 2.0 · YTD +19%
Lower-quality pure-play; basket already covers gate + annealing + photonic.
Trigger: needs material quality improvement (revenue traction or credible roadmap proof) - currently a pass.
Trigger: needs material quality improvement (revenue traction or credible roadmap proof) - currently a pass.
Private - track for IPO signal
• Atom Computing - neutral-atom quantum; well-funded.
• PsiQuantum - photonic quantum (competes with XNDU); rumored '26 listing.
• Quantinuum - HON owns ~54%, so indirect exposure via HON in Robotics.
• Anduril - defense autonomy; rumored '26 IPO.
• PsiQuantum - photonic quantum (competes with XNDU); rumored '26 listing.
• Quantinuum - HON owns ~54%, so indirect exposure via HON in Robotics.
• Anduril - defense autonomy; rumored '26 IPO.
⚠ Watchlist is a research pipeline. Not investment advice. Composite scores and triggers can change as fundamentals evolve - verify current prices and conditions before acting.
△ PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE: All three portfolios benchmarked against SPY and QQQ since April 10, 2026. Returns are weighted by holding allocations. Data refreshed daily from Yahoo Finance close prices.
Cumulative Return Since April 10, 2026
Summary
| Portfolio | Return | vs SPY | vs QQQ |
|---|
⚠ Returns are computed from closing prices and reflect model portfolios -- no transaction costs, slippage, or taxes are included. Not investment advice.
⚡ DC INFRASTRUCTURE PORTFOLIO - FINALIZED: 15 holdings, conviction-weighted. $1,000,000 notional. Entry date: April 10, 2026. Thesis: Custom silicon, optical networking, power/cooling, and construction names benefiting from AI data center infrastructure buildout. ● LOCKED
Today’s Movers (│Δ│ ≥ 5%)
MRVL -16.74%
Worst-in-basket sympathy hit — PHLX -8.5% on Broadcom guide reset + hot jobs print despite Marvell’s own raised FY27/FY28 outlook a week ago; high-beta AI-semis got purged first.
MU -13.25%
AVGO-driven AI-semis sympathy sell-off plus memory-pricing-peak concerns and recent insider sales heading into Jun-24 earnings.
AMD -10.86%
Institutional de-risking off Broadcom guide + jobs print; valuation worry after run above $546 mid-week, geopolitical uncertainty rounds out the tape.
COHR -10.64%
AI-optics sympathy with GLW + Broadcom-driven AI-semi flush; the Nvidia→optical thesis got duration-discounted along with the rest of the stack.
MPWR -10.38%
Broadcom-driven AI capex reset + jobs-print rate squeeze; Blackwell-supplier overhang from March still in the back of the mind for the high-multiple power name.
GLW -10.18%
Sell-the-news: post-NVDA/Meta optical deal rally cooled when management reiterated rather than raised near-term targets; insider sales + valuation worries collided with the Broadcom-led semi flush.
LRCX -9.85%
US chip-shipment restrictions to China headline + Broadcom guide + analyst downgrades stacked on a fab-equipment basket already wobbling on the AI-capex pace reset.
AVGO -7.92%
FQ2 beat (rev $22.2B, +48% YoY) but Q3 AI semi guide ~$16B came in ~$1.2B light vs Street and CEO only reiterated (not raised) the $100B+ FY27 AI target — classic sell-the-news after a 40%+ pre-print run.
VRT -7.23%
DC-power/cooling beta to the AI-capex narrative; if Broadcom’s guide is the first sign of an AI-spend ceiling, Vertiv’s above-trend backlog math gets re-rated.
ANET -7.07%
Broad reassessment of AI-linked names + insider sales + valuation concerns; the AVGO-print read-through hits Arista directly on networking ASIC competition narrative.
ASML -6.58%
Six-session win streak snapped — Barclays + Morningstar downgrades earlier this week + CEO flagging potential EU Commission strategic-project control, layered onto the broader semi sell-off.
NVDA -6.20%
The bellwether takes the Broadcom guide-miss read-through head-on — if hyperscaler AI spend is plateauing earlier than priced, Nvidia’s multiple gets re-cut first. Jobs-print rate squeeze compounds.
APH -5.42%
Connector-to-AI-rack beta to the Broadcom guide-miss narrative; sells with the rest of the AI-spend pick-and-shovel stack.
ETN -5.42%
DC-power infrastructure name caught in the AI-capex repricing; long-duration backlog discounted further by the post-jobs-print rate move.
$1,241,444
Portfolio Value
+$241,452
Total P&L
+24.15%
Return
SPY: +8.55%
vs S&P 500
QQQ: +15.38%
vs NASDAQ 100
Holdings
| Ticker | Company | Role in Stack | Moat | Value | Score | Weight % | Shares | Entry Price | Current Price | P&L % | P&L $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | Nvidia | GPU/AI accelerator silicon powering DC compute | 5 | 4 | 4.6 | 11.0% | 583.1 | $188.63 | $205.10 | +8.73% | +$9,604 |
| AVGO | Broadcom | Custom AI chips (Google TPUs) and networking ASICs | 5 | 3 | 4.2 | 9.0% | 242.2 | $371.55 | $385.73 | +3.82% | +$3,434 |
| APH | Amphenol | High-speed connectors and cables for every DC server rack | 5 | 3 | 4.2 | 8.0% | 568.3 | $140.75 | $138.81 | -1.38% | $-1,103 |
| ETN | Eaton Corp | Power management: switchgear, UPS, PDUs for DC electrical systems | 5 | 3 | 4.2 | 8.0% | 198.5 | $403.00 | $395.94 | -1.75% | $-1,401 |
| MRVL | Marvell Technology | Custom AI accelerator ASICs for hyperscale DC workloads | 4 | 3 | 3.6 | 7.0% | 544.7 | $128.49 | $263.47 | +105.05% | +$73,524 |
| COHR | Coherent | Optical transceivers, lasers, and photonics for 800G/1.6T DC interconnects | 4 | 3 | 3.6 | 7.0% | 227.6 | $307.50 | $376.99 | +22.60% | +$15,816 |
| ANET | Arista Networks | High-speed Ethernet switching for DC network fabrics | 4 | 3 | 3.6 | 6.0% | 407.1 | $147.35 | $154.27 | +4.70% | +$2,817 |
| MU | Micron Technology | HBM and DRAM memory for AI training/inference | 3 | 5 | 3.8 | 7.0% | 166.4 | $420.59 | $864.01 | +105.43% | +$73,785 |
| ASML | ASML Holding | Sole maker of EUV lithography machines for leading-edge chip fabrication | 5 | 2 | 3.8 | 7.0% | 47.4 | $1,478.28 | $1,641.74 | +11.06% | +$7,748 |
| LRCX | Lam Research | Dominant etch equipment (45% share) for advanced chip fabrication | 5 | 2 | 3.5 | 5.0% | 189.6 | $263.66 | $303.28 | +15.03% | +$7,512 |
| VRT | Vertiv Holdings | Power distribution and thermal/cooling infrastructure | 4 | 2 | 3.2 | 5.0% | 169.4 | $295.11 | $300.51 | +1.83% | +$915 |
| GEV | GE Vernova | Power generation and grid equipment for DC energy demand | 4 | 2 | 3.2 | 5.0% | 50.4 | $991.32 | $933.61 | -5.82% | $-2,909 |
| GLW | Corning | Optical fiber and specialty glass for DC connectivity | 4 | 2 | 3.2 | 5.0% | 291.9 | $171.24 | $177.58 | +3.70% | +$1,851 |
| AMD | Advanced Micro Devices | DC GPUs and server CPUs; growing AI accelerator share vs Nvidia | 4 | 3 | 3.3 | 5.0% | 204.0 | $245.04 | $466.38 | +90.33% | +$45,153 |
| MPWR | Monolithic Power Systems | Dominant high-density power management ICs for AI GPU racks | 5 | 2 | 3.3 | 5.0% | 37.0 | $1,353.85 | $1,481.05 | +9.40% | +$4,706 |
Benchmark Comparison
S&P 500 (SPY)
$737.55
Entry: $679.46 (Apr 10) | +8.55%
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ)
$705.06
Entry: $611.07 (Apr 10) | +15.38%
Change Log
Apr 14, 2026 - Fractional Shares + Live Prices
Switched to fractional share counts (1 decimal) for precise $1M notional allocation.
NVDA weight adjusted from 10% to 11% (DC portfolio) to correct weights summing to 99%.
Integrated Finnhub API for live price updates. SPY/QQQ benchmarks corrected to Apr 10 closes ($679.46/$611.07).
Prices update daily at 7:30 AM ET via automated cron.
Apr 12, 2026 - Portfolio Finalized (v3)
OUT: AMKR (3.0, weak OSAT moat), MOD (3.0, commoditized cooling), EME (3.4, contractor moat)
IN: LRCX (3.5, 45% etch market share), AMD (3.3, growing DC GPU share + Meta deal), MPWR (3.3, dominant AI power delivery)
Moat floor raised from 3.0 to 3.2. Average moat improved from 4.0 to 4.2. MRVL adjusted to 7%, ANET to 6%. Entry prices: Apr 10 close.
⚠ This is a model portfolio for tracking purposes only. Not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.