Daily Audio Brief
~2 min · Iran/Gulf · Rachel
⚠ Day 154 / Saturday — The oil premium re-armed and the diplomatic track broke down. The July truce MOU collapsed, and on Jul 31 the IRGC struck two US-escorted tankers in the Strait of Hormuz — claiming they used an "undeclared route," turning four more back, and reasserting "full control" of the strait (CENTCOM disputes it, says it redirected 24 vessels). Brent settled back above $90 ($90.12, +1.2%), capping a ~24% July gain — its biggest month since March; WTI ~$82. Trump is threatening fresh strikes and reports flag a possible US/Israeli hit on Iranian energy infrastructure this weekend. The equity leg was earnings-driven, not macro: DC-Infra holdings ripped on Q2 blowouts — MPWR +8.4% (record revenue, 130% enterprise-data guide, $500M buyback), ETN +7.3% (record adj EPS, backlog +43%), VRT +6.2%, ANET/COHR +5.5%; MU gave back -5.9% on profit-taking after Thursday's +18% rip. DC Infra vaulted to +17.1% YTD, ahead of QQQ. FOMC still at 3.50-3.75%; SPR still at its 1983 low (~311M bbl). Net: war premium snapping back on the truce collapse and tanker strikes, growth baskets bid on earnings, defense leg firmly in play.
- Diplomacy: Deteriorating — the truce collapsed and the US is threatening escalation. The July truce MOU has broken down, with the US accusing Iran of violating it by attacking commercial ships and killing US soldiers. President Trump is now threatening fresh strikes, saying the US will hit Iran "very hard"; White House reports flag a possible joint US/Israeli bombing campaign on Iranian energy infrastructure as soon as this weekend. Underneath, the mediation track survives but is barely moving: Qatar/Pakistan-brokered technical talks in Switzerland and Doha show "little sign" of progress, and Omani/Iranian officials are still nominally working toward a Hormuz compromise — but analysts warn the US has hit a "strategic dead end." The Oman off-ramp stays dead (Iran demands full control of the strait) and the US naval blockade of Iranian ports continues (24 vessels redirected). Net: the diplomatic cushion the market was pricing yesterday has thinned sharply — the tail is live and near-term.
- Oil: Higher — the war premium re-armed on the truce collapse and fresh tanker strikes. Brent settled $90.12 (+$1.09, +1.2%) and WTI ~$82, back above $90 after the IRGC struck two US-escorted tankers in Hormuz. July closed up ~24% — the biggest monthly gain since March. Intraday quotes touched $92+ as the escalation headlines hit. Brent-WTI spread ~$8; Dubai's premium to Brent stays firm on prompt-barrel risk. War premium re-widened to roughly ~$11-21/bbl over a pre-war ~$69 WTI / ~$78-79 Brent baseline. Structural tightness reinforces the bid: the 2026 supply deficit has doubled to ~1.5M b/d and US crude stocks are drawing. Q3 Brent forecasts span $74 (EIA) to $82-86 (Goldman/JPM); the $120+ tail is now the live scenario, not a distant one — a weekend strike on Gulf energy infra is the single clearest trigger (cycle peak ~$126 Brent in April).
- Shipping: Re-escalating — the IRGC hit US-escorted tankers and reasserted control of the strait. The headline: on Jul 31 the IRGC struck and stopped two oil tankers transiting Hormuz under US air escort via an "undeclared route," turned four more back, and reasserted "full control and management" of the waterway. CENTCOM disputes the claims, says commercial navigation is safe but that it redirected 24 commercial vessels recently. This follows a Jul 26 tanker that struck a naval mine after deviating from an Iran-designated route. The IMO still warns transits are too dangerous and traffic stays far below pre-war levels. War-risk hull cover stays structurally elevated — marine war-risk premiums ~7.5-10% of hull value (from a ~0.15-0.25% norm), single-VLCC cover reported topping $10M per transit; insurers selective/voyage-specific, ~6,000 seafarers still trapped in the region. Many vessels reroute via the Cape of Good Hope; ~47M bbl of Iranian crude stranded on Gulf tankers. Bab al-Mandeb stays a second front — Houthis blockade Saudi ports. Saudi E-W and UAE Fujairah bypass lines run near-full as pressure-relief valves.
- Energy adjacency: Qatari LNG (~25% of global LNG) stays physically gated by Hormuz — the tanker strikes and rejected Oman plan keep transit-gap risk elevated. TTF stays structurally firm (mid-€40s/MWh) and firms at the margin with crude back above $90; US Henry Hub ~$2.9-3.1, domestic gas insulated and US LNG the relative winner. On the consumer side, June CPI showed a 9.7% m/m drop in gasoline that pulled headline CPI -0.4% m/m (annual 3.5%, core 2.6%) — crude climbing back above $90 re-adds pump-price pass-through risk into the July/August prints. US pump prices ~$4.09/gal in late July. The Red Sea re-routing tax persists as a second insurance/freight drag.
- Macro spillover: The FOMC held at 3.50-3.75% Jul 29 — a fifth straight hold — but with three dissents for a hike and hike risk still priced into Sept/Oct; the 30yr Treasury yield sits near a 19-year peak on sticky-inflation worry. The tape leg this week was earnings-driven — strong Q2 datacenter/power-infra prints (MPWR, ETN, VRT) carried the DC-Infra basket rather than a macro re-rate. But crude back above $90 re-arms the inflation tail the July spike created, a headwind to the CPI path just as three FOMC members already want a hike. The SPR at a 1983 low keeps the policy shock-absorber thin; GDP growth is a steady ~2.0-2.1%. On defense capex, the Pentagon restock thesis holds and the truce collapse plus threatened US/Israeli strikes keep the LMT/RTX tailwind firmly intact.
- Portfolio read: Both legs bid — growth on earnings, the war/defense hedge on the re-escalation. The three growth baskets are war-insulated, not selloff-insulated, and this week Q2 earnings did the work: DC Infra led on datacenter/power-infra blowouts — MPWR +8.4%, ETN +7.3%, VRT +6.2%, ANET/COHR +5.5% (MU gave back -5.9% on profit-taking) — vaulting the basket to +17.1% YTD, ahead of QQQ. Robotics +3.5%; Quantum still deepest in the hole at -15.4% YTD into its Aug 5-6 earnings cluster. SPY +9.9% / QQQ +12.6% for reference. Crucially, the oil/defense hedge re-armed today: with the truce collapsed, tankers struck, and US/Israeli strikes threatened, the LMT/RTX defense leg and pure-energy tilt are both back in favor — the diversification is working as designed. Net: growth carried by earnings, hedge carried by the war. Swing factors: whether the US/Israel hits Gulf energy infra this weekend, and whether the chip bid holds into AMD/ANET (Aug 4), IonQ (Aug 5), Rigetti/D-Wave (Aug 6). Live marks below.
Triggers to watch
• Weekend strike on Gulf energy infra? — reports flag a possible US/Israeli bombing campaign on Iranian energy infrastructure this weekend. This is now the single clearest lever to snap Brent toward $120+ and is the dominant near-term tail.
• Hormuz tanker war — the IRGC struck two US-escorted tankers Jul 31 and claims "full control" of the strait; CENTCOM disputes it. Whether Iran keeps hitting escorted vessels (premium re-arms further) or backs off is the biggest oil swing factor.
• Diplomatic track — the July truce MOU collapsed and Qatar/Pakistan-brokered talks show "little progress"; a surprise ceasefire or safe-passage deal would collapse the premium toward $5-10, but the odds have thinned.
• Does the earnings bid hold? — DC-Infra Q2 blowouts (MPWR, ETN, VRT) carried the basket. Watch AMD/ANET (Aug 4), IonQ (Aug 5), Rigetti/D-Wave (Aug 6) to confirm datacenter-ROI confidence is durable.
• Sticky-inflation / rates — three FOMC dissents for a hike and a 30yr yield near a 19-year peak; with crude back above $90, the inflation-tail re-arms and the hike-risk repricing is the main threat to the growth baskets.
• Hormuz tanker war — the IRGC struck two US-escorted tankers Jul 31 and claims "full control" of the strait; CENTCOM disputes it. Whether Iran keeps hitting escorted vessels (premium re-arms further) or backs off is the biggest oil swing factor.
• Diplomatic track — the July truce MOU collapsed and Qatar/Pakistan-brokered talks show "little progress"; a surprise ceasefire or safe-passage deal would collapse the premium toward $5-10, but the odds have thinned.
• Does the earnings bid hold? — DC-Infra Q2 blowouts (MPWR, ETN, VRT) carried the basket. Watch AMD/ANET (Aug 4), IonQ (Aug 5), Rigetti/D-Wave (Aug 6) to confirm datacenter-ROI confidence is durable.
• Sticky-inflation / rates — three FOMC dissents for a hike and a 30yr yield near a 19-year peak; with crude back above $90, the inflation-tail re-arms and the hike-risk repricing is the main threat to the growth baskets.
Risk Indicators
Hormuz Status
RE-ESCALATING — IRGC STRUCK TWO US-ESCORTED TANKERS JUL 31 AND REASSERTED "FULL CONTROL" OF THE STRAIT
Day 154. The shift: on Jul 31 the IRGC struck and stopped two US-escorted oil tankers transiting via an "undeclared route," turned four more back, and reasserted "full control and management" of Hormuz. CENTCOM disputes the claims, says commercial navigation is safe but that it redirected 24 vessels recently. This follows a Jul 26 tanker that hit a naval mine after deviating from an Iran-designated route. The IMO still warns transits are too dangerous and traffic stays far below pre-war levels. Hull war-risk cover ~7.5-10% of hull value (from ~0.15-0.25% norm), single-VLCC cover reported topping $10M per transit; costs now structural, ~6,000 seafarers trapped in the region. Many vessels reroute via the Cape of Good Hope; ~47M bbl Iranian crude stranded on Gulf tankers. Saudi E-W and UAE Fujairah bypass lines at near-full capacity.
Brent War Premium
~$11-21/bbl — re-arming on the truce collapse and fresh tanker strikes
Brent $90.12 / WTI ~$82 — Brent +1.2% on the day, back above $90; July closed +~24%, its biggest month since March (intraday touched $92+). Driven by the collapsed truce and the IRGC striking two US-escorted tankers. Brent-WTI spread ~$8; Dubai's premium firm. Premium vs a ~$69 WTI / ~$78-79 Brent pre-war baseline. Structural tightness reinforces: the 2026 deficit doubled to ~1.5M b/d, US stocks drawing. Scenarios: surprise ceasefire → fades toward $5-10 (odds thinned); contested → $11-21 (Q3 forecasts $74 EIA / $82-86 GS-JPM); weekend Gulf energy-infra strike → snaps to $40+ (Goldman's $120+ tail, cycle peak ~$126).
Paper vs Physical Gap
Gap re-widening — paper is re-pricing the premium up on the escalation while physical stays gapped and dangerous
Brent-WTI ~$8 (Brent $90.12 / WTI ~$82) as the geopolitical bid returns; Dubai's premium for non-Hormuz Gulf grades firm. Paper is re-arming on the truce collapse and IRGC tanker strikes, while physical stays bifurcated — IMO-flagged as dangerous, Iran hitting escorted tankers, ~47M bbl stranded, Oman plan rejected. The tape prices a contested partial outage cushioned by OPEC+ spare, US +1.2M b/d, and Saudi/UAE bypass routes. Gap widens violently on a weekend Gulf energy-infra strike; it compresses only on a formal ceasefire and unrestricted Hormuz flow.
U.S. Energy Insulation
+1.2M bbl/day
13.6M vs 12.4M pre-war domestic production
SPR Level
~44% filled — LOWEST SINCE 1983
~311M bbl / 714M capacity | Lowest level since 1983 after a ~99M-bbl draw since March | 10yr range: 44-94% (311M-638M bbl) | The shock-absorber is now thin just as the physical Hormuz outage bites
Supply at Risk - Global Snapshot
~18M
bbl/day at risk (Hormuz)
RESTORED
Saudi E-W pipeline + Manifa
3.2M
bbl/day diverted (Red Sea)
~37 days
SPR buffer — lowest since 1983
+1.2M
bbl/day US surplus vs pre-war
■ S&P 500 FORECAST: Probability-weighted expected return by Nov 1, 2026: -3% to +3% | Day 79: Iran formalized the Strait via the new Persian Gulf Strait Authority — tolls up to $2M/ship in yuan/BTC, US blockade running in parallel. Trump signals "few days" patience window. Brent $108.09 / WTI $101.78 / Dubai ~$104.50; spread $6.31, war premium ~$38. Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed chair into a 3.8% CPI / structural-expectations-at-19-yr-high backdrop — Fed minutes leaned toward removing the easing bias. The big tape signal of the day was the Trump $2B/9-company quantum CHIPS announcement: every quantum holding ripped (QBTS +33, RGTI +31, ARQQ +26), and AI-optics (GLW/COHR/ANET +5-6%) joined the bid. Diplomatic ladder is symbolic; toll regime is structural; portfolio engine is government-of-quantum + AI-optics.
15-25% Probability ↓↓
Hormuz Reopens / Diplomatic Breakthrough (DEAL PATH)
- Brent Target
- $80-90 by Q3
- S&P 500 Impact
- Recovery rally, +5-8%
- S&P 500 by Nov 1
- +8% to +12%
- Sector Rotation
- Energy down, consumer up
- Trigger
- Trump-Xi Beijing summit Thu opens China-brokered parallel track - US-China joint statement opposing Hormuz tolls already on record. VP Vance Thu: "progress" being made in talks. Iran-Israel-Lebanon talks resume Washington Thu (Lebanon track). 14-point MoU revival would still require Iran to soften on enrichment moratorium + Hormuz sequencing, or US to accept partial framework. Pakistan/Qatar mediators publicly hopeful.
- Obstacle
- Iran FM Araghchi at BRICS Delhi (Thu) accuses UAE of direct co-belligerence - first formal Gulf-state-as-co-belligerent claim - hardens Tehran's diplomatic position rather than softening. Fujairah ship-seizure Thu directly threatens UAE bypass route. Hezbollah drone wounds Israeli civilians near border Thu; IDF responds with strikes + evacuation warnings. Trump Mon called ceasefire "on life support" after rejecting Iran's MoU response. Past framework attempts collapsed within days.
40-50% Probability ↑
Frozen Conflict / Toll Regime Persists
- Brent Target
- $95-115 sustained
- S&P 500 Impact
- Sideways, ±3%
- S&P 500 by Nov 1
- 0% to +4%
- Sector Rotation
- Energy flat-up, defensives lead
- Trigger
- Trump-Xi summit + Vance "progress" framing keep deal track alive on paper but no breakthrough; Iran's UAE-accusation hardens posture; Fujairah seizure stays single-incident; rhetoric ladder doesn't translate to Iranian energy/enrichment strikes. Iran PGSA tolling regime persists (US-China statement notwithstanding). Hormuz reopens only selectively (Qatar LNG-style permits). Israel-Lebanon front grinds - Hezbollah drone wounds Israeli civilians Thu, IDF strikes + evacuation warnings, expanded ground op preparation continues. Slow attrition without Iranian infra strikes. Aramco's 2027-stability warning underwrites sustained $95-115 band.
30-40% Probability ↑
Escalation / Infrastructure Hits
- Brent Target
- $130-150+
- S&P 500 Impact
- -10-15% correction
- S&P 500 by Nov 1
- -8% to -15%
- Sector Rotation
- Energy spikes, broad selloff
- Trigger
- Fujairah ship-seizure Thu opens UAE-east-coast bypass route to attack; Iran's BRICS-Delhi accusation of UAE direct co-belligerence sets predicate for further UAE-Iran kinetic exchange. If a second/third Fujairah-area incident follows, ADNOC export terminal directly exposed. Netanyahu "dismantled" + ground-op rhetoric still on table; Israel coordinating contingency strikes vs Iran energy/officials with US (CNN). Hezbollah drone-on-Israeli-civilians threshold crossed Thu. Russia rearming Iran via Caspian (ISW). Kharg strike / Houthi Bab al-Mandeb closure / direct Iran-Israel resumption. Iran parliament passes Hormuz toll-law 2nd reading.
◆ WATCHLIST: Names researched but not yet held - grouped by portfolio. Each entry shows Moat / Valuation / Composite score (Moat×0.6 + Val×0.4, same rubric as holdings tables) plus YTD performance, the thesis, and the trigger that would move it from watchlist → portfolio. Composite ≥ 3.5 = buy on trigger. < 3.0 = monitor only.
DC Infrastructure
ARM $221
Moat 5 / Val 2 / 3.8 · YTD +100%
Custom-CPU royalty layer for Graviton, Cobalt, Axion; v9 royalty rates accelerating in data center.
Trigger: pullback below $180, OR v9 royalty stall.
Trigger: pullback below $180, OR v9 royalty stall.
INTC $118
Moat 3 / Val 2 / 2.6 · YTD +226%
Agentic-CPU re-rate has played out. Foundry deals with Apple + Google driving the move; Granite Rapids landed in the right workload.
Trigger: pullback to $80 OR Granite Rapids miss creating asymmetric re-entry.
Trigger: pullback to $80 OR Granite Rapids miss creating asymmetric re-entry.
SMCI $32
Moat 2 / Val 3 / 2.4 · YTD +4%
AI server integrator - leverage to total servers shipped. Governance overhang lingering.
Trigger: clean audit cycle + visible margin floor.
Trigger: clean audit cycle + visible margin floor.
AI Robotics
KTOS $52
Moat 3 / Val 1 / 2.2 · YTD -30%
Defense autonomy (Valkyrie scaling to 40/yr by '28, hypersonics $400M '26 → $700M '27). Q1 strong + FY raised; market punished on Q2 guide + valuation.
Trigger: FCF inflection OR P/E < 100x. Currently ~330x with negative FCF and recent insider selling.
Trigger: FCF inflection OR P/E < 100x. Currently ~330x with negative FCF and recent insider selling.
MCHP $97
Moat 3 / Val 2 / 2.6 · YTD +56%
Motor control / microcontroller franchise - humanoid BOM exposure (every robot needs precision motion).
Trigger: pullback under $80.
Trigger: pullback under $80.
Quantum
XNDU → promoted to Quantum portfolio at 3% (May 15, 2026). Q1 print delivered: revenue +300% YoY, AMD CFD benchmark (25× CPU speedup), customer pipeline expanded (Lockheed, TELUS, Fidelity FCAT). Funded by trimming QBTS 25→22%. See Quantum tab change log for details.
QUBT $11
Moat 2 / Val 2 / 2.0 · YTD +19%
Lower-quality pure-play; basket already covers gate + annealing + photonic.
Trigger: needs material quality improvement (revenue traction or credible roadmap proof) - currently a pass.
Trigger: needs material quality improvement (revenue traction or credible roadmap proof) - currently a pass.
Private - track for IPO signal
• Atom Computing - neutral-atom quantum; well-funded.
• PsiQuantum - photonic quantum (competes with XNDU); rumored '26 listing.
• Quantinuum - HON owns ~54%, so indirect exposure via HON in Robotics.
• Anduril - defense autonomy; rumored '26 IPO.
• PsiQuantum - photonic quantum (competes with XNDU); rumored '26 listing.
• Quantinuum - HON owns ~54%, so indirect exposure via HON in Robotics.
• Anduril - defense autonomy; rumored '26 IPO.
⚠ Watchlist is a research pipeline. Not investment advice. Composite scores and triggers can change as fundamentals evolve - verify current prices and conditions before acting.
△ PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE: All three portfolios benchmarked against SPY and QQQ since April 10, 2026. Returns are weighted by holding allocations. Data refreshed daily from Yahoo Finance close prices.
Cumulative Return Since April 10, 2026
Summary
| Portfolio | Return | vs SPY | vs QQQ |
|---|
⚠ Returns are computed from closing prices and reflect model portfolios -- no transaction costs, slippage, or taxes are included. Not investment advice.
⚡ DC INFRASTRUCTURE PORTFOLIO - FINALIZED: 15 holdings, conviction-weighted. $1,000,000 notional. Entry date: April 10, 2026. Thesis: Custom silicon, optical networking, power/cooling, and construction names benefiting from AI data center infrastructure buildout. ● LOCKED
Today’s Movers (│Δ│ ≥ 5%)
MPWR +8.35%
Q2 blowout — record $980.6M revenue (+47.6% YoY), EPS $6.50 vs $5.88 est; raised enterprise-data growth guide to 130% and added $500M buyback.
ETN +7.32%
Q2 beat — record adj EPS $3.15 and $8.5B revenue; datacenter backlog +43% YoY, raised full-year organic-growth guide to 11-13%.
VRT +6.18%
Q2 beat — adj EPS +60%, net sales +24% YoY; raised full-year guidance across all metrics on AI-datacenter thermal demand.
MU -5.90%
Profit-taking after Thursday's +18% rip — pared on rate-hike jitters, Burry short disclosure, and China memory-competition fears; JPM calls the dip a buy.
COHR +5.55%
AI-optics bid ahead of Aug 12 earnings on the NVIDIA co-packaged-optics partnership and new Alibaba CPO tie-up; datacenter-ROI confidence firming.
ANET +5.46%
Ran to $180 into Aug 4 earnings on raised 2026 guidance and strong AI-networking demand; Azure strength reaffirmed the build-out.
$1,171,311
Portfolio Value
+$171,320
Total P&L
+17.13%
Return
SPY: +9.94%
vs S&P 500
QQQ: +12.59%
vs NASDAQ 100
Holdings
| Ticker | Company | Role in Stack | Moat | Value | Score | Weight % | Shares | Entry Price | Current Price | P&L % | P&L $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | Nvidia | GPU/AI accelerator silicon powering DC compute | 5 | 4 | 4.6 | 11.0% | 583.1 | $188.63 | $200.75 | +6.43% | +$7,067 |
| AVGO | Broadcom | Custom AI chips (Google TPUs) and networking ASICs | 5 | 3 | 4.2 | 9.0% | 242.2 | $371.55 | $389.28 | +4.77% | +$4,294 |
| APH | Amphenol | High-speed connectors and cables for every DC server rack | 5 | 3 | 4.2 | 8.0% | 568.3 | $140.75 | $160.70 | +14.17% | +$11,338 |
| ETN | Eaton Corp | Power management: switchgear, UPS, PDUs for DC electrical systems | 5 | 3 | 4.2 | 8.0% | 198.5 | $403.00 | $415.20 | +3.03% | +$2,422 |
| MRVL | Marvell Technology | Custom AI accelerator ASICs for hyperscale DC workloads | 4 | 3 | 3.6 | 7.0% | 544.7 | $128.49 | $187.56 | +45.97% | +$32,175 |
| COHR | Coherent | Optical transceivers, lasers, and photonics for 800G/1.6T DC interconnects | 4 | 3 | 3.6 | 7.0% | 227.6 | $307.50 | $262.89 | -14.51% | $-10,153 |
| ANET | Arista Networks | High-speed Ethernet switching for DC network fabrics | 4 | 3 | 3.6 | 6.0% | 407.1 | $147.35 | $180.35 | +22.40% | +$13,434 |
| MU | Micron Technology | HBM and DRAM memory for AI training/inference | 3 | 5 | 3.8 | 7.0% | 166.4 | $420.59 | $823.03 | +95.68% | +$66,966 |
| ASML | ASML Holding | Sole maker of EUV lithography machines for leading-edge chip fabrication | 5 | 2 | 3.8 | 7.0% | 47.4 | $1,478.28 | $1,629.00 | +10.20% | +$7,144 |
| LRCX | Lam Research | Dominant etch equipment (45% share) for advanced chip fabrication | 5 | 2 | 3.5 | 5.0% | 189.6 | $263.66 | $293.02 | +11.14% | +$5,567 |
| VRT | Vertiv Holdings | Power distribution and thermal/cooling infrastructure | 4 | 2 | 3.2 | 5.0% | 169.4 | $295.11 | $241.57 | -18.14% | $-9,070 |
| GEV | GE Vernova | Power generation and grid equipment for DC energy demand | 4 | 2 | 3.2 | 5.0% | 50.4 | $991.32 | $990.29 | -0.10% | $-52 |
| GLW | Corning | Optical fiber and specialty glass for DC connectivity | 4 | 2 | 3.2 | 5.0% | 291.9 | $171.24 | $138.25 | -19.27% | $-9,630 |
| AMD | Advanced Micro Devices | DC GPUs and server CPUs; growing AI accelerator share vs Nvidia | 4 | 3 | 3.3 | 5.0% | 204.0 | $245.04 | $476.15 | +94.32% | +$47,146 |
| MPWR | Monolithic Power Systems | Dominant high-density power management ICs for AI GPU racks | 5 | 2 | 3.3 | 5.0% | 37.0 | $1,353.85 | $1,426.03 | +5.33% | +$2,671 |
Benchmark Comparison
S&P 500 (SPY)
$747.03
Entry: $679.46 (Apr 10) | +9.94%
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ)
$687.99
Entry: $611.07 (Apr 10) | +12.59%
Change Log
Apr 14, 2026 - Fractional Shares + Live Prices
Switched to fractional share counts (1 decimal) for precise $1M notional allocation.
NVDA weight adjusted from 10% to 11% (DC portfolio) to correct weights summing to 99%.
Integrated Finnhub API for live price updates. SPY/QQQ benchmarks corrected to Apr 10 closes ($679.46/$611.07).
Prices update daily at 7:30 AM ET via automated cron.
Apr 12, 2026 - Portfolio Finalized (v3)
OUT: AMKR (3.0, weak OSAT moat), MOD (3.0, commoditized cooling), EME (3.4, contractor moat)
IN: LRCX (3.5, 45% etch market share), AMD (3.3, growing DC GPU share + Meta deal), MPWR (3.3, dominant AI power delivery)
Moat floor raised from 3.0 to 3.2. Average moat improved from 4.0 to 4.2. MRVL adjusted to 7%, ANET to 6%. Entry prices: Apr 10 close.
⚠ This is a model portfolio for tracking purposes only. Not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.