Daily Audio Brief
~2 min · Iran/Gulf · Rachel
⚠ Day 155 / Sunday — A diplomatic curveball against a still-hot physical backdrop. On Aug 2 Trump said he's calling off the threatened US strikes, claiming the "perimeters of a deal" have been agreed with Iran and Gulf states — an "immediate, complete OPENING of the Hormuz Strait" plus an end to Iran's nuclear threat. But Iran has not confirmed: a semi-official agency called it a "new lie," and the acting defense minister says forces are at highest readiness. Critically, the physical war didn't pause — a tanker was hit Aug 1 and a fresh explosion near a vessel Aug 2 off Oman (UKMTO / Royal Navy confirmed). So the market has a headline de-escalation with zero physical follow-through. Oil last printed Brent $90.12 / WTI $84.67 at Friday's close (weekend markets shut), capping a ~24% July gain — its biggest month since March. War-risk hull cover stays ~7.5-10%; SPR still at its 1983 low (~311M bbl); FOMC still 3.50-3.75%. Equity baskets are flat over the weekend — DC Infra rode Friday's Q2-earnings blowouts to +17.1% YTD (ahead of QQQ). Net: a genuine off-ramp is on the table for the first time in weeks, but it's unconfirmed and contradicted by live tanker strikes — the tail cuts both ways from here.
- Diplomacy: A possible off-ramp — but unconfirmed and one-sided. The shift: on Aug 2 Trump announced he's calling off the threatened strikes, saying the "perimeters of a deal" have been agreed with Iran and Middle Eastern allies — framed as an "Immediate, Complete, and Total OPENING OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT" plus an end to Iran's nuclear threat. Gulf mediators (per SCMP/AP) reportedly outlined the framework. But the counter-signal is loud: Iran has not confirmed — a semi-official Iranian agency dismissed it as a "new lie," and the acting defense minister says Tehran treats all threats as credible and is raising military readiness. This echoes the June Islamabad MOU that collapsed in July, so the market should treat a one-sided US announcement skeptically until Tehran signs on. Meanwhile the US State Dept issued fresh security alerts (Aug 1) for Americans across ten regional countries. Net: for the first time in weeks there's a credible de-escalation path on the table — if Iran confirms, the premium collapses fast; if it's hollow, the threatened strikes come back into frame.
- Oil: Elevated and unchanged over the weekend — futures markets are closed; the deal headline hasn't been priced yet. Last prints: Brent $90.12 / WTI $84.67 at Friday's settle, capping a ~24% July gain — the biggest monthly move since March. Brent-WTI spread ~$5.5; Dubai's premium to Brent stays firm on prompt-barrel risk. War premium sits at roughly ~$11-21/bbl over a pre-war ~$69 WTI / ~$78-79 Brent baseline. Structural tightness underpins: the 2026 supply deficit ~1.5M b/d and US crude stocks drawing. The big swing on Monday's open: if Iran confirms Trump's Hormuz-reopening deal, paper likely gaps down $5-10 as the premium bleeds; if the deal is hollow and tanker strikes continue, the $120+ tail re-arms (cycle peak ~$126 Brent in April). Q3 forecasts still span $74 (EIA) to $85-98 (Goldman/high-case).
- Shipping: Still dangerous — the diplomacy hasn't reached the water yet. The tell that the deal is unconfirmed: a tanker was hit Aug 1 and a fresh explosion was reported near a vessel Aug 2 off Oman, both confirmed by UKMTO and the Royal Navy; Kuwait also reported responding to new Iranian drone activity. GPS spoofing/jamming warnings remain active off Fujairah, flagged high-risk for mariners. War-risk hull cover stays structurally elevated — premiums ~7.5-10% of hull value (from a ~0.15-0.25% norm), single-VLCC cover reported topping $10M per transit; insurers selective/voyage-specific, ~6,000 seafarers still trapped in the region. Visible AIS traffic stays far below normal with many operators delaying transits or running dark. Many vessels reroute via the Cape of Good Hope; ~47M bbl of Iranian crude stranded on Gulf tankers. Bab al-Mandeb stays a second front — Houthis disrupt Red Sea traffic, forcing Saudi reroutes. Saudi E-W and UAE Fujairah bypass lines run near-full. Late-July US sanctions also targeted Iran's emerging Hormuz maritime-services/insurance network.
- Energy adjacency: Qatari LNG (~25% of global LNG) stays physically gated by Hormuz — the ongoing tanker strikes keep transit-gap risk elevated even with the deal headline. TTF stays structurally firm (mid-€40s/MWh); US Henry Hub ~$2.9-3.1, domestic gas insulated and US LNG the relative winner. On the consumer side, June CPI showed a 9.7% m/m drop in gasoline that pulled headline CPI -0.4% m/m (annual eased to 3.5% from 4.2%, core 2.6%) — but crude holding above $90 through July re-adds pump-price pass-through risk into the July/August prints (prediction markets price Aug CPI YoY >3.4%). US pump prices ~$4.09/gal in late July. The Red Sea re-routing tax persists as a second insurance/freight drag.
- Macro spillover: The FOMC held at 3.50-3.75% Jul 29 — a fifth straight hold — with markets discounting ~a one-in-three chance of a hike and Sept/Oct hike risk still live; the 30yr Treasury yield sits near a 19-year peak on sticky-inflation worry. A confirmed Hormuz-reopening deal would be the cleanest disinflationary catalyst in months — it would bleed the crude premium and pull the CPI tail back down, easing the hike pressure (recall the earlier US-Iran ceasefire helped drop headline CPI to 3.5% from 4.2%). Absent confirmation, crude above $90 keeps the inflation tail armed. The SPR at a 1983 low keeps the shock-absorber thin; GDP growth a steady ~2.0-2.1%. On defense capex, the Pentagon restock thesis holds; even a deal leaves the elevated-spending trend intact, keeping the LMT/RTX tailwind in place — though a durable ceasefire would trim the acute war bid.
- Portfolio read: Flat over the weekend; the diplomacy headline sets up a two-sided Monday. Marks are unchanged since Friday's close (weekend markets shut). The three growth baskets are war-insulated, not selloff-insulated, and Friday's Q2 earnings did the heavy lifting: DC Infra led on datacenter/power-infra blowouts — MPWR +8.4%, ETN +7.3%, VRT +6.2%, ANET/COHR +5.5% (MU gave back -5.9%) — holding the basket at +17.1% YTD, ahead of QQQ. Robotics +3.5%; Quantum still deepest in the hole at -15.4% YTD into its Aug 5-6 earnings cluster. SPY +9.9% / QQQ +12.6% for reference. The oil/defense hedge is the two-way lever now: a confirmed Hormuz deal would relieve the growth baskets (premium bleeds, CPI tail eases) while trimming the acute energy/defense war bid; an unconfirmed/hollow deal keeps the LMT/RTX + energy tilt firmly in favor. Either way the diversification is doing its job. Swing factors: Iran's response to Trump's deal claim, and whether the chip bid holds into AMD/ANET (Aug 4), IonQ (Aug 5), Rigetti/D-Wave (Aug 6). Live marks below.
Triggers to watch
• Does Iran confirm the deal? — Trump says the "perimeters" of a Hormuz-reopening deal are agreed; Iran calls it a "new lie." Tehran's formal response is now the dominant near-term catalyst — confirmation collapses the premium toward $5-10; a rejection re-arms the strike threat.
• Hormuz tanker war — a tanker was hit Aug 1 and a fresh explosion reported near a vessel Aug 2 off Oman (UKMTO/RN confirmed). Whether strikes stop (deal is real) or continue (deal is hollow) is the tell on the diplomacy.
• Monday's oil open — futures were shut all weekend, so the deal headline is unpriced. A confirmed deal likely gaps Brent down $5-10; continued strikes re-arm the $120+ tail.
• Does the earnings bid hold? — DC-Infra Q2 blowouts (MPWR, ETN, VRT) carried the basket. Watch AMD/ANET (Aug 4), IonQ (Aug 5), Rigetti/D-Wave (Aug 6) to confirm datacenter-ROI confidence is durable.
• Sticky-inflation / rates — ~1-in-3 hike odds priced and a 30yr yield near a 19-year peak; crude holding above $90 keeps the inflation-tail armed, but a confirmed Hormuz deal would be the cleanest disinflationary relief for the growth baskets in months.
• Hormuz tanker war — a tanker was hit Aug 1 and a fresh explosion reported near a vessel Aug 2 off Oman (UKMTO/RN confirmed). Whether strikes stop (deal is real) or continue (deal is hollow) is the tell on the diplomacy.
• Monday's oil open — futures were shut all weekend, so the deal headline is unpriced. A confirmed deal likely gaps Brent down $5-10; continued strikes re-arm the $120+ tail.
• Does the earnings bid hold? — DC-Infra Q2 blowouts (MPWR, ETN, VRT) carried the basket. Watch AMD/ANET (Aug 4), IonQ (Aug 5), Rigetti/D-Wave (Aug 6) to confirm datacenter-ROI confidence is durable.
• Sticky-inflation / rates — ~1-in-3 hike odds priced and a 30yr yield near a 19-year peak; crude holding above $90 keeps the inflation-tail armed, but a confirmed Hormuz deal would be the cleanest disinflationary relief for the growth baskets in months.
Risk Indicators
Hormuz Status
CLOSED / DANGEROUS — TRUMP CLAIMS A REOPENING DEAL, BUT IRAN DENIES IT AND TANKERS WERE STILL HIT AUG 1-2
Day 155. The shift: Trump says the "perimeters of a deal" to fully reopen Hormuz are agreed — but Iran calls it a "new lie" and hasn't confirmed. The physical war hasn't paused: a tanker was hit Aug 1 and a fresh explosion near a vessel Aug 2 off Oman (UKMTO/Royal Navy confirmed); Kuwait reported new Iranian drone activity; GPS spoofing/jamming warnings active off Fujairah. Visible AIS traffic stays far below normal, many operators delaying or running dark. Hull war-risk cover ~7.5-10% of hull value (from ~0.15-0.25% norm), single-VLCC cover topping $10M per transit; ~6,000 seafarers trapped in the region. Many vessels reroute via the Cape of Good Hope; ~47M bbl Iranian crude stranded on Gulf tankers. Saudi E-W and UAE Fujairah bypass lines at near-full capacity. The single tell to watch: whether Iran confirms the deal and the tanker strikes stop.
Brent War Premium
~$11-21/bbl — held over the weekend; deal headline is unpriced until Monday's open
Brent $90.12 / WTI $84.67 at Friday's settle (weekend markets shut); July closed +~24%, its biggest month since March. Brent-WTI spread ~$5.5; Dubai's premium firm. Premium vs a ~$69 WTI / ~$78-79 Brent pre-war baseline. Structural tightness underpins: the 2026 deficit ~1.5M b/d, US stocks drawing. Scenarios into Monday: Iran confirms Trump's Hormuz-reopening deal → premium bleeds toward $5-10; deal stays unconfirmed / hollow → holds $11-21 (Q3 forecasts $74 EIA / $85-98 GS-high); strikes escalate → snaps toward $40+ (the $120+ tail, cycle peak ~$126).
Paper vs Physical Gap
Gap frozen over the weekend — paper hasn't yet reacted to the deal headline; physical stays gapped and dangerous
Brent-WTI ~$5.5 (Brent $90.12 / WTI $84.67, Friday's close); Dubai's premium for non-Hormuz Gulf grades firm. Paper is stale into Monday — the Aug 2 Trump deal claim is unpriced — while physical stays bifurcated: still IMO-dangerous, tankers hit Aug 1-2, ~47M bbl stranded, AIS traffic depressed. The tape prices a contested partial outage cushioned by OPEC+ spare, US +1.2M b/d, and Saudi/UAE bypass routes. Gap compresses fast if Iran confirms the reopening and flow normalizes; it widens violently if strikes escalate instead.
U.S. Energy Insulation
+1.2M bbl/day
13.6M vs 12.4M pre-war domestic production
SPR Level
~44% filled — LOWEST SINCE 1983
~311M bbl / 714M capacity | Lowest level since 1983 after a ~99M-bbl draw since March | 10yr range: 44-94% (311M-638M bbl) | The shock-absorber is now thin just as the physical Hormuz outage bites
Supply at Risk - Global Snapshot
~18M
bbl/day at risk (Hormuz)
RESTORED
Saudi E-W pipeline + Manifa
3.2M
bbl/day diverted (Red Sea)
~37 days
SPR buffer — lowest since 1983
+1.2M
bbl/day US surplus vs pre-war
■ S&P 500 FORECAST: Probability-weighted expected return by Nov 1, 2026: -3% to +3% | Day 79: Iran formalized the Strait via the new Persian Gulf Strait Authority — tolls up to $2M/ship in yuan/BTC, US blockade running in parallel. Trump signals "few days" patience window. Brent $108.09 / WTI $101.78 / Dubai ~$104.50; spread $6.31, war premium ~$38. Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed chair into a 3.8% CPI / structural-expectations-at-19-yr-high backdrop — Fed minutes leaned toward removing the easing bias. The big tape signal of the day was the Trump $2B/9-company quantum CHIPS announcement: every quantum holding ripped (QBTS +33, RGTI +31, ARQQ +26), and AI-optics (GLW/COHR/ANET +5-6%) joined the bid. Diplomatic ladder is symbolic; toll regime is structural; portfolio engine is government-of-quantum + AI-optics.
15-25% Probability ↓↓
Hormuz Reopens / Diplomatic Breakthrough (DEAL PATH)
- Brent Target
- $80-90 by Q3
- S&P 500 Impact
- Recovery rally, +5-8%
- S&P 500 by Nov 1
- +8% to +12%
- Sector Rotation
- Energy down, consumer up
- Trigger
- Trump-Xi Beijing summit Thu opens China-brokered parallel track - US-China joint statement opposing Hormuz tolls already on record. VP Vance Thu: "progress" being made in talks. Iran-Israel-Lebanon talks resume Washington Thu (Lebanon track). 14-point MoU revival would still require Iran to soften on enrichment moratorium + Hormuz sequencing, or US to accept partial framework. Pakistan/Qatar mediators publicly hopeful.
- Obstacle
- Iran FM Araghchi at BRICS Delhi (Thu) accuses UAE of direct co-belligerence - first formal Gulf-state-as-co-belligerent claim - hardens Tehran's diplomatic position rather than softening. Fujairah ship-seizure Thu directly threatens UAE bypass route. Hezbollah drone wounds Israeli civilians near border Thu; IDF responds with strikes + evacuation warnings. Trump Mon called ceasefire "on life support" after rejecting Iran's MoU response. Past framework attempts collapsed within days.
40-50% Probability ↑
Frozen Conflict / Toll Regime Persists
- Brent Target
- $95-115 sustained
- S&P 500 Impact
- Sideways, ±3%
- S&P 500 by Nov 1
- 0% to +4%
- Sector Rotation
- Energy flat-up, defensives lead
- Trigger
- Trump-Xi summit + Vance "progress" framing keep deal track alive on paper but no breakthrough; Iran's UAE-accusation hardens posture; Fujairah seizure stays single-incident; rhetoric ladder doesn't translate to Iranian energy/enrichment strikes. Iran PGSA tolling regime persists (US-China statement notwithstanding). Hormuz reopens only selectively (Qatar LNG-style permits). Israel-Lebanon front grinds - Hezbollah drone wounds Israeli civilians Thu, IDF strikes + evacuation warnings, expanded ground op preparation continues. Slow attrition without Iranian infra strikes. Aramco's 2027-stability warning underwrites sustained $95-115 band.
30-40% Probability ↑
Escalation / Infrastructure Hits
- Brent Target
- $130-150+
- S&P 500 Impact
- -10-15% correction
- S&P 500 by Nov 1
- -8% to -15%
- Sector Rotation
- Energy spikes, broad selloff
- Trigger
- Fujairah ship-seizure Thu opens UAE-east-coast bypass route to attack; Iran's BRICS-Delhi accusation of UAE direct co-belligerence sets predicate for further UAE-Iran kinetic exchange. If a second/third Fujairah-area incident follows, ADNOC export terminal directly exposed. Netanyahu "dismantled" + ground-op rhetoric still on table; Israel coordinating contingency strikes vs Iran energy/officials with US (CNN). Hezbollah drone-on-Israeli-civilians threshold crossed Thu. Russia rearming Iran via Caspian (ISW). Kharg strike / Houthi Bab al-Mandeb closure / direct Iran-Israel resumption. Iran parliament passes Hormuz toll-law 2nd reading.
◆ WATCHLIST: Names researched but not yet held - grouped by portfolio. Each entry shows Moat / Valuation / Composite score (Moat×0.6 + Val×0.4, same rubric as holdings tables) plus YTD performance, the thesis, and the trigger that would move it from watchlist → portfolio. Composite ≥ 3.5 = buy on trigger. < 3.0 = monitor only.
DC Infrastructure
ARM $221
Moat 5 / Val 2 / 3.8 · YTD +100%
Custom-CPU royalty layer for Graviton, Cobalt, Axion; v9 royalty rates accelerating in data center.
Trigger: pullback below $180, OR v9 royalty stall.
Trigger: pullback below $180, OR v9 royalty stall.
INTC $118
Moat 3 / Val 2 / 2.6 · YTD +226%
Agentic-CPU re-rate has played out. Foundry deals with Apple + Google driving the move; Granite Rapids landed in the right workload.
Trigger: pullback to $80 OR Granite Rapids miss creating asymmetric re-entry.
Trigger: pullback to $80 OR Granite Rapids miss creating asymmetric re-entry.
SMCI $32
Moat 2 / Val 3 / 2.4 · YTD +4%
AI server integrator - leverage to total servers shipped. Governance overhang lingering.
Trigger: clean audit cycle + visible margin floor.
Trigger: clean audit cycle + visible margin floor.
AI Robotics
KTOS $52
Moat 3 / Val 1 / 2.2 · YTD -30%
Defense autonomy (Valkyrie scaling to 40/yr by '28, hypersonics $400M '26 → $700M '27). Q1 strong + FY raised; market punished on Q2 guide + valuation.
Trigger: FCF inflection OR P/E < 100x. Currently ~330x with negative FCF and recent insider selling.
Trigger: FCF inflection OR P/E < 100x. Currently ~330x with negative FCF and recent insider selling.
MCHP $97
Moat 3 / Val 2 / 2.6 · YTD +56%
Motor control / microcontroller franchise - humanoid BOM exposure (every robot needs precision motion).
Trigger: pullback under $80.
Trigger: pullback under $80.
Quantum
XNDU → promoted to Quantum portfolio at 3% (May 15, 2026). Q1 print delivered: revenue +300% YoY, AMD CFD benchmark (25× CPU speedup), customer pipeline expanded (Lockheed, TELUS, Fidelity FCAT). Funded by trimming QBTS 25→22%. See Quantum tab change log for details.
QUBT $11
Moat 2 / Val 2 / 2.0 · YTD +19%
Lower-quality pure-play; basket already covers gate + annealing + photonic.
Trigger: needs material quality improvement (revenue traction or credible roadmap proof) - currently a pass.
Trigger: needs material quality improvement (revenue traction or credible roadmap proof) - currently a pass.
Private - track for IPO signal
• Atom Computing - neutral-atom quantum; well-funded.
• PsiQuantum - photonic quantum (competes with XNDU); rumored '26 listing.
• Quantinuum - HON owns ~54%, so indirect exposure via HON in Robotics.
• Anduril - defense autonomy; rumored '26 IPO.
• PsiQuantum - photonic quantum (competes with XNDU); rumored '26 listing.
• Quantinuum - HON owns ~54%, so indirect exposure via HON in Robotics.
• Anduril - defense autonomy; rumored '26 IPO.
⚠ Watchlist is a research pipeline. Not investment advice. Composite scores and triggers can change as fundamentals evolve - verify current prices and conditions before acting.
△ PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE: All three portfolios benchmarked against SPY and QQQ since April 10, 2026. Returns are weighted by holding allocations. Data refreshed daily from Yahoo Finance close prices.
Cumulative Return Since April 10, 2026
Summary
| Portfolio | Return | vs SPY | vs QQQ |
|---|
⚠ Returns are computed from closing prices and reflect model portfolios -- no transaction costs, slippage, or taxes are included. Not investment advice.
⚡ DC INFRASTRUCTURE PORTFOLIO - FINALIZED: 15 holdings, conviction-weighted. $1,000,000 notional. Entry date: April 10, 2026. Thesis: Custom silicon, optical networking, power/cooling, and construction names benefiting from AI data center infrastructure buildout. ● LOCKED
Today’s Movers (│Δ│ ≥ 5%)
MPWR +8.35%
Q2 blowout — record $980.6M revenue (+47.6% YoY), EPS $6.50 vs $5.88 est; raised enterprise-data growth guide to 130% and added $500M buyback.
ETN +7.32%
Q2 beat — record adj EPS $3.15 and $8.5B revenue; datacenter backlog +43% YoY, raised full-year organic-growth guide to 11-13%.
VRT +6.18%
Q2 beat — adj EPS +60%, net sales +24% YoY; raised full-year guidance across all metrics on AI-datacenter thermal demand.
MU -5.90%
Profit-taking after Thursday's +18% rip — pared on rate-hike jitters, Burry short disclosure, and China memory-competition fears; JPM calls the dip a buy.
COHR +5.55%
AI-optics bid ahead of Aug 12 earnings on the NVIDIA co-packaged-optics partnership and new Alibaba CPO tie-up; datacenter-ROI confidence firming.
ANET +5.46%
Ran to $180 into Aug 4 earnings on raised 2026 guidance and strong AI-networking demand; Azure strength reaffirmed the build-out.
$1,171,311
Portfolio Value
+$171,320
Total P&L
+17.13%
Return
SPY: +9.94%
vs S&P 500
QQQ: +12.59%
vs NASDAQ 100
Holdings
| Ticker | Company | Role in Stack | Moat | Value | Score | Weight % | Shares | Entry Price | Current Price | P&L % | P&L $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | Nvidia | GPU/AI accelerator silicon powering DC compute | 5 | 4 | 4.6 | 11.0% | 583.1 | $188.63 | $200.75 | +6.43% | +$7,067 |
| AVGO | Broadcom | Custom AI chips (Google TPUs) and networking ASICs | 5 | 3 | 4.2 | 9.0% | 242.2 | $371.55 | $389.28 | +4.77% | +$4,294 |
| APH | Amphenol | High-speed connectors and cables for every DC server rack | 5 | 3 | 4.2 | 8.0% | 568.3 | $140.75 | $160.70 | +14.17% | +$11,338 |
| ETN | Eaton Corp | Power management: switchgear, UPS, PDUs for DC electrical systems | 5 | 3 | 4.2 | 8.0% | 198.5 | $403.00 | $415.20 | +3.03% | +$2,422 |
| MRVL | Marvell Technology | Custom AI accelerator ASICs for hyperscale DC workloads | 4 | 3 | 3.6 | 7.0% | 544.7 | $128.49 | $187.56 | +45.97% | +$32,175 |
| COHR | Coherent | Optical transceivers, lasers, and photonics for 800G/1.6T DC interconnects | 4 | 3 | 3.6 | 7.0% | 227.6 | $307.50 | $262.89 | -14.51% | $-10,153 |
| ANET | Arista Networks | High-speed Ethernet switching for DC network fabrics | 4 | 3 | 3.6 | 6.0% | 407.1 | $147.35 | $180.35 | +22.40% | +$13,434 |
| MU | Micron Technology | HBM and DRAM memory for AI training/inference | 3 | 5 | 3.8 | 7.0% | 166.4 | $420.59 | $823.03 | +95.68% | +$66,966 |
| ASML | ASML Holding | Sole maker of EUV lithography machines for leading-edge chip fabrication | 5 | 2 | 3.8 | 7.0% | 47.4 | $1,478.28 | $1,629.00 | +10.20% | +$7,144 |
| LRCX | Lam Research | Dominant etch equipment (45% share) for advanced chip fabrication | 5 | 2 | 3.5 | 5.0% | 189.6 | $263.66 | $293.02 | +11.14% | +$5,567 |
| VRT | Vertiv Holdings | Power distribution and thermal/cooling infrastructure | 4 | 2 | 3.2 | 5.0% | 169.4 | $295.11 | $241.57 | -18.14% | $-9,070 |
| GEV | GE Vernova | Power generation and grid equipment for DC energy demand | 4 | 2 | 3.2 | 5.0% | 50.4 | $991.32 | $990.29 | -0.10% | $-52 |
| GLW | Corning | Optical fiber and specialty glass for DC connectivity | 4 | 2 | 3.2 | 5.0% | 291.9 | $171.24 | $138.25 | -19.27% | $-9,630 |
| AMD | Advanced Micro Devices | DC GPUs and server CPUs; growing AI accelerator share vs Nvidia | 4 | 3 | 3.3 | 5.0% | 204.0 | $245.04 | $476.15 | +94.32% | +$47,146 |
| MPWR | Monolithic Power Systems | Dominant high-density power management ICs for AI GPU racks | 5 | 2 | 3.3 | 5.0% | 37.0 | $1,353.85 | $1,426.03 | +5.33% | +$2,671 |
Benchmark Comparison
S&P 500 (SPY)
$747.03
Entry: $679.46 (Apr 10) | +9.94%
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ)
$687.99
Entry: $611.07 (Apr 10) | +12.59%
Change Log
Apr 14, 2026 - Fractional Shares + Live Prices
Switched to fractional share counts (1 decimal) for precise $1M notional allocation.
NVDA weight adjusted from 10% to 11% (DC portfolio) to correct weights summing to 99%.
Integrated Finnhub API for live price updates. SPY/QQQ benchmarks corrected to Apr 10 closes ($679.46/$611.07).
Prices update daily at 7:30 AM ET via automated cron.
Apr 12, 2026 - Portfolio Finalized (v3)
OUT: AMKR (3.0, weak OSAT moat), MOD (3.0, commoditized cooling), EME (3.4, contractor moat)
IN: LRCX (3.5, 45% etch market share), AMD (3.3, growing DC GPU share + Meta deal), MPWR (3.3, dominant AI power delivery)
Moat floor raised from 3.0 to 3.2. Average moat improved from 4.0 to 4.2. MRVL adjusted to 7%, ANET to 6%. Entry prices: Apr 10 close.
⚠ This is a model portfolio for tracking purposes only. Not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.