Oil Prices - Front-Month Contracts
Brent Front-Month (CLM26)
$99.43
Brent Second-Month (CLN26)
$97.90
WTI Front-Month (CLK26)
$90.54
WTI Second-Month (CLM26)
$90.70
Market Indicators
Brent-WTI Spread
+$8.89
Dubai Physical
$102.15
⚠ DAY 54 - CEASEFIRE EXTENDED BUT HORMUZ ESCALATES: Trump reverses course, extends ceasefire "until Iran presents a unified proposal." However, Iran seizes TWO vessels in Strait of Hormuz overnight, IRGC citing retaliation for US seizure of Touska. Oil surging: Brent $99.43 (+4.4%), WTI $90.54 (+3.7%), Dubai physical $102.15. Pakistan talks "in disarray" but ceasefire buys time. Blockade remains in effect. Lebanon death toll now 2,454. Nuclear gap (20yr vs 5yr), frozen assets, Lebanon remain dealbreakers. China leveraging relationships with all sides.
Risk Indicators
Hormuz Status
CLOSED - VESSELS SEIZED
Iran seizes 2 vessels in retaliation for Touska. Ceasefire extended but Hormuz remains shut. IRGC warns ships will be "targeted." Traffic frozen.
Brent War Premium
~$29/bbl
Brent $99.43 vs pre-war $70; premium surging on vessel seizures despite ceasefire extension
Paper vs Physical Gap
Brent > WTI by $8.89
Spread widening ($99.43 vs $90.54). Physical-market panic from vessel seizures; WTI cushioned by US production surplus.
Gulf Drone Defense
Improving
201 UKR specialists deployed | Interceptor: $2,500/unit vs Patriot $3-4M | 100/day UKR production | Cheongung-II: 96% hit rate
Iran Internal Unrest
6 / 10
Isfahan/Ahvaz strikes + Pasteur Institute hit; protests simmering
U.S. Energy Insulation
+1.2M bbl/day
13.6M vs 12.4M pre-war domestic production
SPR Level
~52% filled
~372M bbl / 714M capacity | 10yr range: 50-94% (358M-638M bbl) | Post-Biden drawdown low: 50% (Oct 2023) | Near historical floor
Red Sea / Houthis (24h)
~3.2M bbl/day diverted
~52% of Bab el-Mandeb capacity (6.2M bbl/day normal) rerouted via Cape | +14 days transit | War risk premium $0.5-1.5M/cargo
Supply at Risk - Global Snapshot
~18M
bbl/day at risk (Hormuz)
RESTORED
Saudi E-W pipeline + Manifa
3.2M
bbl/day diverted (Red Sea)
~44 days
SPR buffer at current draw
+1.2M
bbl/day US surplus vs pre-war
SANCTIONS WAIVER EXPIRED APR 19 | CEASEFIRE EXTENDED INDEFINITELY APR 21
Day 54: Ceasefire extended but Hormuz escalating. Trump holds off strikes while Iran "presents a unified proposal." Iran seizes 2 vessels in Hormuz overnight in retaliation for Touska. Pakistan talks in disarray. Nuclear enrichment gap (20yr vs 5yr) and frozen assets remain dealbreakers. Lebanon ceasefire holding (death toll 2,454). Blockade remains.
■ S&P 500 FORECAST: Probability-weighted expected return by Nov 1, 2026: -3% to -7% | Ceasefire extension buys time but Iran vessel seizures in Hormuz keep escalation risk elevated. Oil nearing $100 again.
20-25% Probability →
Hormuz Reopens by Early May (DEAL PATH)
- Brent Target
- $80-90 by Q3
- S&P 500 Impact
- Recovery rally, +5-8%
- S&P 500 by Nov 1
- +8% to +12%
- Sector Rotation
- Energy down, consumer up
- Trigger
- Ceasefire extension + eventual Islamabad Round 2 + skinny deal on Hormuz + nuclear freeze
- Obstacle
- Vessel seizures escalating + Pakistan talks in disarray + nuclear gap + frozen assets + Touska fallout
30-35% Probability →
Partial Reopening / Toll Regime Persists
- Brent Target
- $95-110 sustained
- S&P 500 Impact
- Sideways, ±3%
- S&P 500 by Nov 1
- +2% to +5%
- Sector Rotation
- Energy flat, defensives lead
- Trigger
- Yuan toll system formalized, limited tanker flow
35-45% Probability ↓
Escalation / Infrastructure Hits
- Brent Target
- $130-150+
- S&P 500 Impact
- -10-15% correction
- S&P 500 by Nov 1
- -8% to -15%
- Sector Rotation
- Energy spikes, broad selloff
- Trigger
- Kharg strike / Saudi pipeline already hit / ceasefire collapse post-Apr 21
Feb 28
U.S.-Israel strikes begin
Mar 2
Strait of Hormuz effectively closed
Mar 4
Brent surges past $82
Mar 9
Brent hits $115; Saudi/Bahrain infrastructure hit
Mar 11
Iranian strikes hit AWS facilities in UAE/Bahrain - banking outages
Mar 15
Fujairah port attacked
Mar 18
Ukraine deploys 201 anti-drone experts to Gulf
Mar 20
Isfahan steel worker strikes begin
Mar 24
Houthi drone hits Salalah (Oman)
Mar 27
Ukraine-Saudi defense deal signed
Mar 28
Ukraine-UAE & Qatar defense deals
Mar 30
WTI settles above $100 for first time since 2022
Apr 1
Trump prime-time address - no end date, warns of 2-3 weeks more intensified operations
Apr 2
B1 bridge near Tehran destroyed by US strike; 8 killed, 95 wounded on Nature Day
Apr 2
UK hosts 40-nation virtual meeting on Hormuz freedom of navigation
Apr 2
Iran-Oman drafting protocol for Hormuz toll/permit system
Apr 2
Brent $109, WTI $111 - WTI inverts above Brent for first time. Oil surges 8-10%.
Apr 3
Iran claims 2nd F-35 shot down over central Iran (unconfirmed by US)
Apr 3
Kuwait's Mina al-Ahmadi oil refinery hit by Iranian drone, fires erupt
Apr 3
Kuwait desalination plant attacked; Bahrain also reports strikes
Apr 3
US markets closed for Good Friday
Apr 3
US-Israel strikes hit Pasteur Institute (medical research), steel plants, bridge near Tehran
Apr 3-4
F-15 down in Iran, second USAF plane down near Hormuz; US rescues downed officer deep inside Iran
Apr 4
Ceasefire talks reach dead end - WSJ reports current round of US-Iran negotiations at standstill
Apr 4
First Western vessels (CMA CGM, Japanese MOL) transit Hormuz since war began - toll regime functioning
Apr 4
Iran clears Philippine-flagged vessels through Hormuz after diplomatic talks
Apr 4
At least 9 Iranian civilians killed in 24h of US-Israeli strikes - HRANA report
Apr 5
US-Israeli strikes hit petrochemical hub in southwest Iran - 5 killed (ISNA)
Apr 5
Iraqi crude tanker (Ocean Thunder) transits Hormuz via Iran-approved corridor - first Iraq exemption
Apr 5
Oman-Iran talks on Hormuz transit protocol - 3 Omani ships test corridor outside approved route
Apr 5-6
Iran fires missiles at Israel - injuries in Haifa and Tel Aviv; Israeli interceptors active
Apr 6
Ceasefire proposal delivered to Iran and US - could take effect today, reopen Hormuz (Reuters)
Apr 6
Mediators discuss potential 45-day ceasefire - Iran demands Lebanon included (Axios)
Apr 6
Iran rejects 45-day ceasefire proposal (Pakistan/Egypt/Turkey brokered); demands permanent end to war
Apr 6
Trump: Iran can be "taken out in one night" - sets 8pm ET Apr 7 deadline for Hormuz reopening
Apr 7
Israel completes overnight "airstrike wave" on Tehran and other Iranian targets; Red Crescent reports residential area hit
Apr 7
Iran fires retaliatory missiles at Israel - alarms across southern Israel including Beersheba
Apr 7
Oil surges: Brent $110, WTI $115, Dubai physical $132+. WTI-Brent inversion widens to -$5
Apr 7
Iranian missiles hit Haifa residential building - 4 killed, cluster munitions used (ISW confirms 7+ missiles since Apr 5)
Apr 7
Trump widens threat to all Iran power plants and bridges as 8pm deadline approaches
Apr 7
China and Russia veto UN resolution on protecting Hormuz shipping
Apr 7
2-WEEK CEASEFIRE: US-Iran deal brokered by Pakistan. US/Israel suspend bombing; Iran to reopen Hormuz. Both sides claim victory.
Apr 8
Oil crashes: Brent -14% to $94, WTI -15% to $96. S&P futures +2.7%. Biggest single-day oil drop since ceasefire hopes began.
Apr 8
World leaders welcome ceasefire; Ukraine calls for similar "decisiveness" on Russia war
Apr 8
Israel strikes 100+ sites in Lebanon; says Lebanon excluded from ceasefire. 89 killed, 700 wounded.
Apr 8
Iran accuses US of violating ceasefire terms. Only 3 bulk carriers transit Hormuz since deal announced.
Apr 8
Trump demands Hormuz open "without limitation, including tolls" - Iran has not complied.
Apr 9
Oil rebounds: WTI +3% to $97.87, Brent +1% to $95.92. Goldman cuts Q2 forecasts (Brent $90, WTI $87).
Apr 9
Hormuz at virtual standstill: only 7 ships in 24h vs 140 normal. Iran warns ships to keep to its waters.
Apr 9
Hezbollah launches rockets at Israel; Netanyahu: "there is no ceasefire" in Lebanon. 250+ killed in 48h of Israeli strikes on Lebanon.
Apr 9
Former Iranian FM Kharazi dies from wounds in Apr 1 US-Israeli strikes. Khamenei 40th-day mourning ceremony held in Tehran.
Apr 9
Israel agrees to State Dept-hosted talks with Lebanon next week, but continues strikes. Ships in Hormuz linked to sanctioned Iranian entities.
Apr 8
Saudi East-West Pipeline struck by Iranian drone hours after ceasefire. IRGC claims targeting "US oil facilities in Yanbu." Pumping station on 1,200km bypass route hit.
Apr 10
Hormuz still effectively shut: only 15 ships since ceasefire (BBC). LNG tanker Nidi turned back in strait. Kuwait blames Iran for drone strikes; IRGC denies.
Apr 10
Trump casts doubt on ceasefire effectiveness over Iran's continued Hormuz chokehold. Brent $97, WTI $99.
Apr 10
Iran insists Lebanon covered by ceasefire; US/Israel disagree - each side calls the other's actions "violations."
Apr 10
Islamabad prepares for historic US-Iran negotiations starting Apr 11. Pakistan mediating.
Apr 10
Vance warns Iran not to "play" the US in Islamabad. Trump: Iran "doing a very poor job" opening Hormuz. Brent/WTI down 10%+ for week.
Apr 10
Iran's Pezeshkian: Israeli strikes on Lebanon "signal deception," render talks "meaningless." Ghalibaf: two preconditions unmet (Lebanon ceasefire + frozen assets).
Apr 10
BBC confirms only 19 ships through Hormuz since ceasefire. ADNOC CEO: strait "is not open." Israel-Hezbollah continue trading strikes.
Apr 11
ISLAMABAD TALKS COLLAPSE: 21 hours of marathon US-Iran negotiations end with no deal. Vance departs Pakistan. Lebanon and frozen assets remain dealbreakers.
Apr 11
US Navy warships cross Hormuz for first time since war began - mine-clearing operations commence. Iranian surveillance drone destroyed.
Apr 11
First supertankers (Saudi/UAE crude) exit Gulf via Hormuz. Serifos (Saudi+UAE crude) expected Malaysia Apr 21.
Apr 12
Saudi Arabia announces full restoration of East-West pipeline pumping capacity and Manifa field output.
Apr 13
US BLOCKADE: Trump announces naval blockade of Iranian ports via Strait of Hormuz, effective 10 AM ET. CENTCOM to enforce. Iran calls it "illegal" and "act of piracy."
Apr 13
Oil surges 7-9%: Brent $102, WTI $104. Asian stocks fall. UK, France, Spain, Turkey, China condemn blockade.
Apr 13
Pope Leo criticizes US; Starmer says UK will not support blockade. Major allied split emerges.
Apr 14
Oil retreats: Brent $99, WTI $97 - down from Monday's 7% spike. Markets pricing in diplomacy hopes.
Apr 14
Starmer & France announce joint talks this week on Hormuz crisis. Pakistan working to resuscitate US-Iran dialogue.
Apr 14
Chinese tanker passes Hormuz despite US blockade. Saudi Arabia urges US to lift blockade. IEA warns of demand destruction.
Apr 14
OPEC March output fell 7.9M bpd - record decline. HSBC: US-Iran deal key to restoring flows. EU considers energy tax cuts.
Apr 15
Oil pullback continues: Brent $96, WTI $93 - down 6-8% from blockade-spike highs. Markets pricing nuclear deal hopes.
Apr 15
Nuclear deal sticking point: US demands 20-year enrichment ban; Iran offers 5. Pakistan mediating second round of talks.
Apr 15
FAO: world faces food "catastrophe" if Hormuz stays disrupted. 20-45% of agrifood inputs transit strait. Fertiliser plants shutting globally.
Apr 15
Israel-Lebanon direct talks begin in Washington (first since 1993). Hezbollah rejects US-brokered framework. ASML raises outlook.
Apr 15
Sanctioned Chinese tanker Rich Starry exits Gulf via Hormuz despite US blockade. Russia's Lavrov visits China for Middle East coordination.
Apr 16
Trump tells Fox war is "very close to over," hints at deal within days. Oil flat: Brent $95, WTI $91.
Apr 16
Iran-linked tankers test blockade via Larak/Qeshm island route. CENTCOM claims 48h full enforcement; Windward sees evasion via spoofing.
Apr 16
Pakistan army chief in Tehran to restart US-Iran talks. China's FM pressures Iran to open Hormuz. Israel-Lebanon leaders to speak Thursday.
Apr 16
China's refinery runs slip on crude supply squeeze. South Korea locks in 273M bbl non-Hormuz crude. Norway oil revenues surge 68%.
Apr 16
10-DAY ISRAEL-LEBANON CEASEFIRE: Trump announces ceasefire effective 21:00 GMT. Hezbollah voices support. Israel PM insists troops stay in southern Lebanon.
Apr 17
Hegseth: blockade to last "as long as it takes." US "locked and loaded" on Iran energy infrastructure. Gen. Caine: 13 ships turned back; blockade is on Iranian ports, not full strait.
Apr 17
Oil drops: Brent $96 (-3.2%), WTI $91 (-3.7%). Lebanon ceasefire + deal hopes offset blockade risk. IMF cuts 2026 global growth to 3.1%.
Apr 17
US House votes down effort to curtail Trump's war powers. Pakistan PM + army chief traveling to restart US-Iran talks; no date set.
Apr 17
HORMUZ "OPEN": Iran FM Araghchi declares Strait of Hormuz "completely open" to commercial traffic during ceasefire. Reports of $20B frozen-funds-for-uranium deal.
Apr 17
Oil crashes: Brent -7.6% to $91.87, WTI -9.6% to $85.57. Biggest single-day drops of the conflict. S&P 500 +1.2%. DC infra stocks rally 2-5%.
Apr 18
HORMUZ REVERSED: Iran says Strait of Hormuz closed again until US lifts ports blockade. Reversal hours after Trump voiced deal optimism. Day 50 of conflict.
Apr 18
Lebanon ceasefire holds - tens of thousands of displaced civilians returning home. President Aoun: Lebanon is "no longer a pawn."
Apr 19
IRAN FIRES ON VESSELS: Traffic at complete standstill in Hormuz after Iran fires on ships. IRGC: strait closed until US lifts blockade. Iran navy: any ship trying to pass "will be targeted."
Apr 19
Ghalibaf: Iran "fully prepared" for US to resume hostilities. US-Iran talks described as "far" from breakthrough. Most dangerous weekend of conflict.
Apr 19
Iranian oil sanctions waiver expires (OFAC) + BCA supply-doubling inflection point
Apr 20
US SEIZES IRANIAN SHIP: USS Spruance fires on and captures Iranian container ship Touska in Gulf of Oman. Marines from 31st MEU board vessel. Iran calls it "piracy."
Apr 20
Iran cancels Islamabad talks, says US shows "no seriousness" on diplomacy. Iranian military vows retaliation for Touska.
Apr 20
Oil surges: Brent +5.3% to $95.13, WTI +6.2% to $89.02. Biggest Monday gap-up of the conflict.
Apr 20
Trump says negotiators heading to Pakistan anyway. Dutch government activates first phase of energy crisis plan. IEA: 2 years to recover lost Middle East output.
Apr 21
Oil dips: Brent $95.23 (-0.3%), WTI $87.35 (-0.1%). Iran signals delegation to Islamabad for second round of talks despite Touska seizure.
Apr 21
CEASEFIRE EXPIRES: Two-week US-Iran ceasefire expires. Iran says won't negotiate "under shadow of threats." Trump says unlikely to extend truce without deal.
Apr 21
Nuclear stalemate: US demands 20-year enrichment ban, Iran offers 5 years. Frozen assets and Lebanon remain key sticking points.
Apr 21
CEASEFIRE EXTENDED: Trump reverses course, extends ceasefire indefinitely until Iran presents "unified proposal." Blockade remains in effect.
Apr 22
IRAN SEIZES 2 VESSELS: IRGC seizes two ships in Strait of Hormuz, citing retaliation for US capture of Touska. Ship comes under fire. Oil surges: Brent $99.43, WTI $90.54.
Apr 22
Pakistan talks described as "in disarray." Lebanon death toll from Israeli attacks reaches 2,454. China leveraging relationships with all sides.
~Apr 23-26
Islamabad Round 2 uncertain. Ceasefire holding but Hormuz escalation (vessel seizures) risks collapse. Critical window for diplomacy.
■ GULF DRONE DEFENSE: Ukraine's low-cost interceptor deployment is transforming Gulf air defense economics. This tab tracks deployed systems, cost comparisons, and the Q3 inflection thesis.
Defense System Cost Comparison
$2,500
UKR Interceptor (per unit)
~$300K
Cheongung-II (per missile)
$3-4M
Patriot (per missile)
96%
Cheongung-II Hit Rate
Deployed Capabilities
| System | Country | Status | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| UKR Interceptor Drones | Saudi Arabia | Deployed | Mar 27 defense deal signed; units arriving |
| UKR Interceptor Drones | UAE | Deployed | Mar 28 defense deal; Fujairah now defended |
| UKR Interceptor Drones | Qatar | Deployed | Mar 28 defense deal signed |
| Cheongung-II (Korean) | UAE | Operational | 96% hit rate in testing; mid-tier solution |
| Patriot PAC-3 | Saudi Arabia | Operational | High-value asset defense; $3-4M/missile |
| UKR Specialists | Gulf-wide | 201 deployed | Training & operating interceptor systems |
Q3 Inflection Thesis
- UKR Production Rate: 100 interceptors/day current output - scaling rapidly to meet Gulf demand
- Iranian Inventory: Estimated 5,000-10,000 Shahed-type drones in stockpile
- Crossover Point: By Q3, Gulf interception capacity may exceed Iranian daily launch capability
- Escalation Risk: If drones neutralized, Iran may shift to cruise missiles (harder to intercept, higher cost)
Critical Infrastructure Exposure
Saudi E-W Pipeline
RESTORED Apr 12
Saudi announces full pipeline capacity restored + Manifa field back online
Ras Tanura
Defended
World's largest oil terminal; Patriot + UKR systems active
Fujairah
Attacked Mar 15
Port hit early in conflict; now defended with UKR interceptors post-deal
Kharg Island
Potential US Target
90% of Iran's oil exports; escalation trigger if struck
■ RED SEA / HOUTHI THREAT: Houthi attacks continue to disrupt ~52% of Bab el-Mandeb shipping capacity, forcing costly Cape of Good Hope reroutes. Naval deterrence insufficient; war risk premiums remain elevated.
Capacity Restriction
~52%
Capacity Restricted
6.2M
bbl/day normal flow
~3.0M
bbl/day still transiting
~3.2M
bbl/day rerouted
Rerouting Impact
Transit Time
+14 days
Cape of Good Hope route adds ~3,500 nautical miles
War Risk Insurance
$0.5-1.5M
Per cargo additional premium for Red Sea transit
Freight Premium
+40-60%
Elevated tanker rates for regional routes
Tanker Traffic
~48%
Still transiting despite elevated risk
Houthi Attack Activity (30d)
- Attack Volume: 25-30 attacks on commercial vessels in past 30 days
- Successful Hits: 8-12 confirmed impacts on cargo/tanker vessels
- Hit Rate: ~30-40% of attacks reach target (improving Houthi accuracy)
- Weapons Used: Anti-ship ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, explosive drones, naval mines
- Salalah Expansion: Houthi drone hit Oman's Salalah port Mar 24 - first strike outside Red Sea zone
Naval Deterrence
US/UK Operations
Active but Insufficient
Operation Prosperity Guardian ongoing; unable to stop all attacks
Iranian Support
Ongoing
Weapons, targeting intel, training continue via IRGC-Quds
Bab el-Mandeb Risk
HIGH
21-mile chokepoint; 40% of Asia-Europe trade vulnerable
Conflict / Macro Watchlist
| Ticker | Name | Thesis |
|---|---|---|
| XLE | Energy Select SPDR | Direct oil price exposure |
| XOP | Oil & Gas E&P | Leveraged to WTI upside |
| ITA | iShares Defense ETF | Defense spending tailwind |
| DBA | Invesco Agriculture | Fertilizer/food chain disruption |
| UNG | U.S. Natural Gas Fund | LNG rerouting premium |
| EWG | iShares Germany | Short - EU energy vulnerability |
| INDA | iShares India | Short - Hormuz-dependent crude imports |
| TLT | 20+ Year Treasury | Rates risk if inflation spikes |
⚠ This is a monitoring framework, not investment advice. Always verify current prices and consult a financial advisor before making trading decisions.
⚡ DC INFRASTRUCTURE PORTFOLIO - FINALIZED: 15 holdings, conviction-weighted. $1,000,000 notional. Entry date: April 10, 2026. Thesis: Custom silicon, optical networking, power/cooling, and construction names benefiting from AI data center infrastructure buildout. ● LOCKED
$1,067,093
Portfolio Value
+$67,102
Total P&L
+6.71%
Return
SPY: +4.31%
vs S&P 500
QQQ: +5.85%
vs NASDAQ 100
Holdings
| Ticker | Company | Role in Stack | Moat | Value | Score | Weight % | Shares | Entry Price | Current Price | P&L % | P&L $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | Nvidia | GPU/AI accelerator silicon powering DC compute | 5 | 4 | 4.6 | 11.0% | 583.1 | $188.63 | $202.06 | +7.12% | +$7,831 |
| AVGO | Broadcom | Custom AI chips (Google TPUs) and networking ASICs | 5 | 3 | 4.2 | 9.0% | 242.2 | $371.55 | $399.63 | +7.56% | +$6,801 |
| APH | Amphenol | High-speed connectors and cables for every DC server rack | 5 | 3 | 4.2 | 8.0% | 568.3 | $140.75 | $152.81 | +8.57% | +$6,854 |
| ETN | Eaton Corp | Power management: switchgear, UPS, PDUs for DC electrical systems | 5 | 3 | 4.2 | 8.0% | 198.5 | $403.00 | $407.57 | +1.13% | +$907 |
| MRVL | Marvell Technology | Custom AI accelerator ASICs for hyperscale DC workloads | 4 | 3 | 3.6 | 7.0% | 544.7 | $128.49 | $147.84 | +15.06% | +$10,540 |
| COHR | Coherent | Optical transceivers, lasers, and photonics for 800G/1.6T DC interconnects | 4 | 3 | 3.6 | 7.0% | 227.6 | $307.50 | $347.51 | +13.01% | +$9,106 |
| ANET | Arista Networks | High-speed Ethernet switching for DC network fabrics | 4 | 3 | 3.6 | 6.0% | 407.1 | $147.35 | $166.85 | +13.23% | +$7,938 |
| MU | Micron Technology | HBM and DRAM memory for AI training/inference | 3 | 5 | 3.8 | 7.0% | 166.4 | $420.59 | $448.42 | +6.62% | +$4,631 |
| ASML | ASML Holding | Sole maker of EUV lithography machines for leading-edge chip fabrication | 5 | 2 | 3.8 | 7.0% | 47.4 | $1,478.28 | $1,476.50 | -0.12% | $-84 |
| LRCX | Lam Research | Dominant etch equipment (45% share) for advanced chip fabrication | 5 | 2 | 3.5 | 5.0% | 189.6 | $263.66 | $263.16 | -0.19% | $-95 |
| VRT | Vertiv Holdings | Power distribution and thermal/cooling infrastructure | 4 | 2 | 3.2 | 5.0% | 169.4 | $295.11 | $314.41 | +6.54% | +$3,269 |
| GEV | GE Vernova | Power generation and grid equipment for DC energy demand | 4 | 2 | 3.2 | 5.0% | 50.4 | $991.32 | $990.18 | -0.11% | $-57 |
| GLW | Corning | Optical fiber and specialty glass for DC connectivity | 4 | 2 | 3.2 | 5.0% | 291.9 | $171.24 | $165.38 | -3.42% | $-1,711 |
| AMD | Advanced Micro Devices | DC GPUs and server CPUs; growing AI accelerator share vs Nvidia | 4 | 3 | 3.3 | 5.0% | 204.0 | $245.04 | $274.95 | +12.21% | +$6,102 |
| MPWR | Monolithic Power Systems | Dominant high-density power management ICs for AI GPU racks | 5 | 2 | 3.3 | 5.0% | 37.0 | $1,353.85 | $1,490.86 | +10.12% | +$5,069 |
Benchmark Comparison
S&P 500 (SPY)
$708.72
Entry: $679.46 (Apr 10) | +4.31%
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ)
$646.79
Entry: $611.07 (Apr 10) | +5.85%
Change Log
Apr 14, 2026 - Fractional Shares + Live Prices
Switched to fractional share counts (1 decimal) for precise $1M notional allocation.
NVDA weight adjusted from 10% to 11% (DC portfolio) to correct weights summing to 99%.
Integrated Finnhub API for live price updates. SPY/QQQ benchmarks corrected to Apr 10 closes ($679.46/$611.07).
Prices update daily at 7:30 AM ET via automated cron.
Apr 12, 2026 - Portfolio Finalized (v3)
OUT: AMKR (3.0, weak OSAT moat), MOD (3.0, commoditized cooling), EME (3.4, contractor moat)
IN: LRCX (3.5, 45% etch market share), AMD (3.3, growing DC GPU share + Meta deal), MPWR (3.3, dominant AI power delivery)
Moat floor raised from 3.0 to 3.2. Average moat improved from 4.0 to 4.2. MRVL adjusted to 7%, ANET to 6%. Entry prices: Apr 10 close.
⚠ This is a model portfolio for tracking purposes only. Not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.