Daily Audio Brief
~2 min · Iran/Gulf · Rachel
⚠ Day 157 / Tuesday — The premium snapped back up — yesterday's de-escalation trade is unwinding. Crude reverses higher — Brent ~$85 (+~1.5%) / WTI ~$80.6 — after Trump calls new talks Iran's "last chance" to cut a deal or face the strike he twice called off, US officials tell CBS no direct negotiations are actually planned, and a cargo vessel was struck near Oman's Al Khasab this morning. The physical picture never confirmed Monday's rally, and now the diplomacy narrative is cracking. TTF gas has ripped +35% MoM (~€60/MWh) on the Hormuz LNG-transit squeeze. War-risk hull cover stays ~1.5-10%; SPR still at its 1983 low (~311M bbl); FOMC still 3.50-3.75%. Portfolio marks reflect Monday's close — DC Infra holds at +17.1% YTD (ahead of QQQ), and the Quantum basket is ripping (QBTS +10.5%, all names +6-10%) into its Aug 5-6 earnings cluster. Net: the risk premium is coming back into the tape — a re-armed inflation tail and a live escalation risk if Trump's ultimatum isn't met.
- Diplomacy: The narrative cracked — from "talks resume" to "last chance." On Aug 4 Trump reframed the new talks as a "last chance" for Iran to forge a deal and avert an escalation of US strikes — a harder line than Monday's optimism. Crucially, US officials told CBS News that no new direct negotiations with Iran are actually planned, gutting the resume-today headline that drove Monday's crude crack. Trump says he twice called off strikes (once described as "the biggest attack since World War II") at Gulf allies' urging (Saudi/UAE/Qatar). Iran still denies a direct US channel; FM Araghchi worked the phones with Oman and Pakistan (Aug 3-4). What's real: Oman-mediated Hormuz-route talks and a mediator effort to revive the collapsed June MOU (60-day toll-free transit, renewed ceasefire). Net: the direction flipped from de-escalatory to ultimatum — comply, or the called-off strike is back on the table.
- Oil: Reversal higher — the premium is coming back in. Intraday Aug 4: Brent ~$85 (+~1.5%) / WTI ~$80.6 (+~0.4%), clawing back part of Monday's ~7% drop as the talks headline unraveled. Brent-WTI spread ~$4-5; Dubai's prompt premium firming again on fresh-incident risk. War premium back to roughly ~$6-16/bbl over a pre-war ~$69 WTI / ~$78-79 Brent baseline. Three drivers stacking: (1) Trump's "last chance" ultimatum + CBS report that no direct talks are planned, (2) a cargo vessel struck near Al Khasab this morning repricing supply-disruption odds, (3) physical tightness — Goldman flags a sharp deterioration in Persian Gulf/Red Sea physical flows even as Brent holds an $80-90 band. Structural deficit ~1.5M b/d caps the downside. Q3 forecasts span $74 (EIA) to $90+ (Goldman year-end path to ~$102). Two-sided: a real deal pulls toward the low-$70s; a hardened standoff or another incident re-arms the $120+ tail (cycle peak ~$126 Brent in April).
- Shipping: Fresh incident undercuts the normalization story. A cargo vessel was struck by an unidentified projectile near Oman's Al Khasab this morning (Aug 4) — the second hit in three days after the Aug 2 tanker strike — instantly repricing the odds of supply disruption and reminding the market Hormuz is still a live war zone. Traffic had been recovering off the mid-June ceasefire baseline (the first Qatari LNG cargo since Jul 5, the Al Areesh, transited Jul 30), but more than a dozen tankers remain queued off Ras Laffan and full recovery is slow. War-risk hull cover stays elevated and voyage-specific — ~1.5% to 10% of hull value (from a ~0.1-0.25% norm), repriced within hours of any incident; the Gulf, Gulf of Oman and S-Red-Sea are Additional Premium Areas effective Aug 7. GPS spoofing/jamming warnings persist off Fujairah; Iran/Oman still finalizing a mutually-acceptable route. Bab al-Mandeb remains a second front on Houthi risk.
- Energy adjacency: This is where the real move is — EU gas is on fire. TTF front-month has ripped to ~€60/MWh, +35% MoM (and +4.3% today), as the Hormuz LNG-transit squeeze bites: Qatari LNG (~25% of global supply) routes through the strait, and with cargoes only trickling back (dozens queued off Ras Laffan) Europe and Asia are competing for scarce spot. EU storage sits ~55% — ~11pts below last year and below the injection pace needed for the 80%-by-November target, so the market has no cushion. Belgium's July LNG imports fell 40%+ YoY, with Russia its sole supplier that month. US Henry Hub stays insulated (~$2.9-3.1) and US LNG is the clear relative winner. Asian spot LNG ~$17/MMBtu. Consumer read: June's 9.7% m/m gasoline drop pulled headline CPI -0.4% m/m (annual to 3.5%, core 2.6%) — but today's crude reversal + the gas spike re-arm the pump/utility pass-through into the Aug/Sept prints.
- Macro spillover: The FOMC held at 3.50-3.75% Jul 29 — a fifth straight hold under new chair Warsh — with markets discounting ~a one-in-three hike chance and Sept hike risk live; the 30yr yield sits near a 19-year peak on sticky-inflation worry. Core CPI held at 2.6% in June and the Cleveland nowcast points to ~0.32% m/m for August (headline YoY ~3.4-3.6%). Yesterday's crude relief is already reversing — today's Brent bounce plus a +35% MoM EU gas spike re-arm the energy-inflation tail just as the market hoped it was bleeding out, keeping the hike case alive. The SPR at a 1983 low (~311M bbl) leaves the shock-absorber thin; GDP growth a steady ~2.0-2.1%. On defense capex, the Pentagon-restock thesis holds — a live escalation risk from Trump's ultimatum keeps the LMT/RTX/AVAV tailwind intact rather than fading it.
- Portfolio read: Marks are Monday's close; the growth baskets held their bid even as the premium snapped back. The three growth sleeves are war-insulated, not selloff-insulated — they trade on the AI/datacenter cycle, not the Gulf headline. Monday's action: Quantum ripped ahead of earnings (QBTS +10.5%, ARQQ +7.7%, RGTI +7.2%, IONQ +6.6%, LAES +6.4%) on IonQ's SkyWater close, D-Wave's Nasdaq-Verafin deal, and BTIG/Wedbush bull calls — though the basket is still -15.4% YTD. DC Infra churned on post-earnings rotation (COHR +9.6%, VRT +8.9%, GLW +6.1%; MPWR gave back -5.7% despite a Q2 blowout) but holds +17.1% YTD, ahead of QQQ. Robotics +3.5% (AVAV +6.6%, ISRG +6.3%). SPY +9.9% / QQQ +12.6%. The energy/defense hedge re-earns its keep on days like today as the premium re-arms. Swing factors: whether Trump's ultimatum forces a deal or a strike, and the earnings cluster — IonQ (Aug 5), Rigetti/D-Wave (Aug 6). Live marks below.
Triggers to watch
• Does Trump's ultimatum force a deal or a strike? — He reframed the talks as Iran's "last chance" and CBS reports no direct negotiations are actually planned. A real deal pulls crude toward the low-$70s; a breakdown re-arms the strike he twice called off.
• Does the crude reversal extend? — Brent back to ~$85 / WTI ~$80.6 after Monday's ~7% crack. Goldman flags deteriorating physical Gulf/Red-Sea flows under an $80-90 band; a sustained break higher re-arms the $120+ tail (cycle peak ~$126).
• EU gas squeeze — TTF +35% MoM to ~€60/MWh on the Hormuz LNG-transit gap, with storage ~11pts below last year. This is the sharpest energy move on the board right now; watch whether Qatari cargoes clear the Ras Laffan queue.
• Hormuz on the water — a cargo vessel was struck near Al Khasab this morning, the second hit in three days. Any fresh incident reprices war-risk cover (~1.5-10% of hull) within hours; APAs took effect Aug 7.
• Earnings cluster — Quantum ripped into it (QBTS/RGTI/IONQ +6-10%). Watch IonQ (Aug 5), Rigetti/D-Wave (Aug 6) and COHR (Aug 12) to confirm the AI/quantum bid is durable, not just pre-print positioning.
• Does the crude reversal extend? — Brent back to ~$85 / WTI ~$80.6 after Monday's ~7% crack. Goldman flags deteriorating physical Gulf/Red-Sea flows under an $80-90 band; a sustained break higher re-arms the $120+ tail (cycle peak ~$126).
• EU gas squeeze — TTF +35% MoM to ~€60/MWh on the Hormuz LNG-transit gap, with storage ~11pts below last year. This is the sharpest energy move on the board right now; watch whether Qatari cargoes clear the Ras Laffan queue.
• Hormuz on the water — a cargo vessel was struck near Al Khasab this morning, the second hit in three days. Any fresh incident reprices war-risk cover (~1.5-10% of hull) within hours; APAs took effect Aug 7.
• Earnings cluster — Quantum ripped into it (QBTS/RGTI/IONQ +6-10%). Watch IonQ (Aug 5), Rigetti/D-Wave (Aug 6) and COHR (Aug 12) to confirm the AI/quantum bid is durable, not just pre-print positioning.
Risk Indicators
Hormuz Status
CONTESTED — SECOND VESSEL STRIKE IN THREE DAYS (AL KHASAB, AUG 4); DIPLOMACY NARRATIVE CRACKING
Day 157. The shift: Monday's normalization story is undercut — a cargo vessel was struck near Al Khasab this morning (Aug 4), the second hit in three days after the Aug 2 tanker strike. Trump reframed talks as Iran's "last chance" and US officials told CBS no direct negotiations are planned, gutting Monday's resume-today headline. Traffic had been recovering (first Qatari LNG cargo since Jul 5 transited Jul 30) but dozens of tankers remain queued off Ras Laffan. War-risk hull cover stays elevated and voyage-specific — ~1.5-10% of hull value (from ~0.1-0.25% norm), repriced within hours of any incident. The Gulf, Gulf of Oman and S-Red-Sea are Additional Premium Areas effective Aug 7. GPS spoofing persists off Fujairah; Iran/Oman still finalizing a route. The tell: whether the ultimatum forces a deal or the called-off strike.
Brent War Premium
~$6-16/bbl — re-arming as crude reverses higher on the cracked talks narrative
Brent ~$85 (+~1.5%) / WTI ~$80.6 (+~0.4%) intraday Aug 4, clawing back part of Monday's ~7% drop. Brent-WTI spread ~$4-5; Dubai's prompt premium firming on the fresh Al Khasab strike. Premium vs a ~$69 WTI / ~$78-79 Brent pre-war baseline. Three drivers: Trump's "last chance" ultimatum + CBS "no talks planned", the Al Khasab vessel strike, and Goldman flagging deteriorating physical Gulf/Red-Sea flows under an $80-90 band. Structural deficit ~1.5M b/d. Scenarios: real deal → toward the low-$70s (Q3 EIA $74); hardened standoff → grinds higher; escalation/strike → snaps toward the $120+ tail (cycle peak ~$126).
Paper vs Physical Gap
Gap re-widening — paper re-arming on the cracked talks story as physical stays stressed
Brent-WTI ~$4-5 (Brent ~$85 / WTI ~$80.6 intraday); Dubai's premium for prompt Gulf grades firming again. Paper is re-pricing higher as Monday's resume-today headline collapsed into a "last chance" ultimatum + a CBS "no direct talks" report, and physical never confirmed the rally — dozens of tankers queued off Ras Laffan, Goldman flagging deteriorating Gulf/Red-Sea flows, and a fresh Al Khasab strike this morning. The tape is swinging back from a fundamentals read toward a contested-outage premium. Gap compresses only on a real deal; it re-widens violently on any fresh incident or a strike.
U.S. Energy Insulation
+1.2M bbl/day
13.6M vs 12.4M pre-war domestic production
SPR Level
~44% filled — LOWEST SINCE 1983
~311M bbl / 714M capacity | Lowest level since 1983 after a ~99M-bbl draw since March | 10yr range: 44-94% (311M-638M bbl) | The shock-absorber is now thin just as the physical Hormuz outage bites
Supply at Risk - Global Snapshot
~18M
bbl/day at risk (Hormuz)
RESTORED
Saudi E-W pipeline + Manifa
3.2M
bbl/day diverted (Red Sea)
~37 days
SPR buffer — lowest since 1983
+1.2M
bbl/day US surplus vs pre-war
■ S&P 500 FORECAST: Probability-weighted expected return by Nov 1, 2026: -3% to +3% | Day 79: Iran formalized the Strait via the new Persian Gulf Strait Authority — tolls up to $2M/ship in yuan/BTC, US blockade running in parallel. Trump signals "few days" patience window. Brent $108.09 / WTI $101.78 / Dubai ~$104.50; spread $6.31, war premium ~$38. Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed chair into a 3.8% CPI / structural-expectations-at-19-yr-high backdrop — Fed minutes leaned toward removing the easing bias. The big tape signal of the day was the Trump $2B/9-company quantum CHIPS announcement: every quantum holding ripped (QBTS +33, RGTI +31, ARQQ +26), and AI-optics (GLW/COHR/ANET +5-6%) joined the bid. Diplomatic ladder is symbolic; toll regime is structural; portfolio engine is government-of-quantum + AI-optics.
15-25% Probability ↓↓
Hormuz Reopens / Diplomatic Breakthrough (DEAL PATH)
- Brent Target
- $80-90 by Q3
- S&P 500 Impact
- Recovery rally, +5-8%
- S&P 500 by Nov 1
- +8% to +12%
- Sector Rotation
- Energy down, consumer up
- Trigger
- Trump-Xi Beijing summit Thu opens China-brokered parallel track - US-China joint statement opposing Hormuz tolls already on record. VP Vance Thu: "progress" being made in talks. Iran-Israel-Lebanon talks resume Washington Thu (Lebanon track). 14-point MoU revival would still require Iran to soften on enrichment moratorium + Hormuz sequencing, or US to accept partial framework. Pakistan/Qatar mediators publicly hopeful.
- Obstacle
- Iran FM Araghchi at BRICS Delhi (Thu) accuses UAE of direct co-belligerence - first formal Gulf-state-as-co-belligerent claim - hardens Tehran's diplomatic position rather than softening. Fujairah ship-seizure Thu directly threatens UAE bypass route. Hezbollah drone wounds Israeli civilians near border Thu; IDF responds with strikes + evacuation warnings. Trump Mon called ceasefire "on life support" after rejecting Iran's MoU response. Past framework attempts collapsed within days.
40-50% Probability ↑
Frozen Conflict / Toll Regime Persists
- Brent Target
- $95-115 sustained
- S&P 500 Impact
- Sideways, ±3%
- S&P 500 by Nov 1
- 0% to +4%
- Sector Rotation
- Energy flat-up, defensives lead
- Trigger
- Trump-Xi summit + Vance "progress" framing keep deal track alive on paper but no breakthrough; Iran's UAE-accusation hardens posture; Fujairah seizure stays single-incident; rhetoric ladder doesn't translate to Iranian energy/enrichment strikes. Iran PGSA tolling regime persists (US-China statement notwithstanding). Hormuz reopens only selectively (Qatar LNG-style permits). Israel-Lebanon front grinds - Hezbollah drone wounds Israeli civilians Thu, IDF strikes + evacuation warnings, expanded ground op preparation continues. Slow attrition without Iranian infra strikes. Aramco's 2027-stability warning underwrites sustained $95-115 band.
30-40% Probability ↑
Escalation / Infrastructure Hits
- Brent Target
- $130-150+
- S&P 500 Impact
- -10-15% correction
- S&P 500 by Nov 1
- -8% to -15%
- Sector Rotation
- Energy spikes, broad selloff
- Trigger
- Fujairah ship-seizure Thu opens UAE-east-coast bypass route to attack; Iran's BRICS-Delhi accusation of UAE direct co-belligerence sets predicate for further UAE-Iran kinetic exchange. If a second/third Fujairah-area incident follows, ADNOC export terminal directly exposed. Netanyahu "dismantled" + ground-op rhetoric still on table; Israel coordinating contingency strikes vs Iran energy/officials with US (CNN). Hezbollah drone-on-Israeli-civilians threshold crossed Thu. Russia rearming Iran via Caspian (ISW). Kharg strike / Houthi Bab al-Mandeb closure / direct Iran-Israel resumption. Iran parliament passes Hormuz toll-law 2nd reading.
◆ WATCHLIST: Names researched but not yet held - grouped by portfolio. Each entry shows Moat / Valuation / Composite score (Moat×0.6 + Val×0.4, same rubric as holdings tables) plus YTD performance, the thesis, and the trigger that would move it from watchlist → portfolio. Composite ≥ 3.5 = buy on trigger. < 3.0 = monitor only.
DC Infrastructure
ARM $221
Moat 5 / Val 2 / 3.8 · YTD +100%
Custom-CPU royalty layer for Graviton, Cobalt, Axion; v9 royalty rates accelerating in data center.
Trigger: pullback below $180, OR v9 royalty stall.
Trigger: pullback below $180, OR v9 royalty stall.
INTC $118
Moat 3 / Val 2 / 2.6 · YTD +226%
Agentic-CPU re-rate has played out. Foundry deals with Apple + Google driving the move; Granite Rapids landed in the right workload.
Trigger: pullback to $80 OR Granite Rapids miss creating asymmetric re-entry.
Trigger: pullback to $80 OR Granite Rapids miss creating asymmetric re-entry.
SMCI $32
Moat 2 / Val 3 / 2.4 · YTD +4%
AI server integrator - leverage to total servers shipped. Governance overhang lingering.
Trigger: clean audit cycle + visible margin floor.
Trigger: clean audit cycle + visible margin floor.
AI Robotics
KTOS $52
Moat 3 / Val 1 / 2.2 · YTD -30%
Defense autonomy (Valkyrie scaling to 40/yr by '28, hypersonics $400M '26 → $700M '27). Q1 strong + FY raised; market punished on Q2 guide + valuation.
Trigger: FCF inflection OR P/E < 100x. Currently ~330x with negative FCF and recent insider selling.
Trigger: FCF inflection OR P/E < 100x. Currently ~330x with negative FCF and recent insider selling.
MCHP $97
Moat 3 / Val 2 / 2.6 · YTD +56%
Motor control / microcontroller franchise - humanoid BOM exposure (every robot needs precision motion).
Trigger: pullback under $80.
Trigger: pullback under $80.
Quantum
XNDU → promoted to Quantum portfolio at 3% (May 15, 2026). Q1 print delivered: revenue +300% YoY, AMD CFD benchmark (25× CPU speedup), customer pipeline expanded (Lockheed, TELUS, Fidelity FCAT). Funded by trimming QBTS 25→22%. See Quantum tab change log for details.
QUBT $11
Moat 2 / Val 2 / 2.0 · YTD +19%
Lower-quality pure-play; basket already covers gate + annealing + photonic.
Trigger: needs material quality improvement (revenue traction or credible roadmap proof) - currently a pass.
Trigger: needs material quality improvement (revenue traction or credible roadmap proof) - currently a pass.
Private - track for IPO signal
• Atom Computing - neutral-atom quantum; well-funded.
• PsiQuantum - photonic quantum (competes with XNDU); rumored '26 listing.
• Quantinuum - HON owns ~54%, so indirect exposure via HON in Robotics.
• Anduril - defense autonomy; rumored '26 IPO.
• PsiQuantum - photonic quantum (competes with XNDU); rumored '26 listing.
• Quantinuum - HON owns ~54%, so indirect exposure via HON in Robotics.
• Anduril - defense autonomy; rumored '26 IPO.
⚠ Watchlist is a research pipeline. Not investment advice. Composite scores and triggers can change as fundamentals evolve - verify current prices and conditions before acting.
△ PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE: All three portfolios benchmarked against SPY and QQQ since April 10, 2026. Returns are weighted by holding allocations. Data refreshed daily from Yahoo Finance close prices.
Cumulative Return Since April 10, 2026
Summary
| Portfolio | Return | vs SPY | vs QQQ |
|---|
⚠ Returns are computed from closing prices and reflect model portfolios -- no transaction costs, slippage, or taxes are included. Not investment advice.
⚡ DC INFRASTRUCTURE PORTFOLIO - FINALIZED: 15 holdings, conviction-weighted. $1,000,000 notional. Entry date: April 10, 2026. Thesis: Custom silicon, optical networking, power/cooling, and construction names benefiting from AI data center infrastructure buildout. ● LOCKED
Today’s Movers (│Δ│ ≥ 5%)
COHR +9.60%
AI-optics bid ahead of Aug 12 earnings on the NVIDIA co-packaged-optics partnership and new Alibaba CPO tie-up; datacenter-ROI confidence firming.
VRT +8.89%
Q2 beat — adj EPS +60%, net sales +24% YoY; raised full-year guidance across all metrics on AI-datacenter thermal demand.
GLW +6.07%
Optical-networking bid on AI-datacenter fiber demand; rebound off a soft month, riding COHR/VRT sector follow-through.
MPWR -5.73%
Q2 blowout — record $980.6M revenue (+47.6% YoY), EPS $6.50 vs $5.88 est; raised enterprise-data growth guide to 130% and added $500M buyback.
ETN +5.55%
Q2 beat — record adj EPS $3.15 and $8.5B revenue; datacenter backlog +43% YoY, raised full-year organic-growth guide to 11-13%.
$1,200,162
Portfolio Value
+$200,171
Total P&L
+20.02%
Return
SPY: +11.51%
vs S&P 500
QQQ: +14.56%
vs NASDAQ 100
Holdings
| Ticker | Company | Role in Stack | Moat | Value | Score | Weight % | Shares | Entry Price | Current Price | P&L % | P&L $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | Nvidia | GPU/AI accelerator silicon powering DC compute | 5 | 4 | 4.6 | 11.0% | 583.1 | $188.63 | $206.64 | +9.55% | +$10,502 |
| AVGO | Broadcom | Custom AI chips (Google TPUs) and networking ASICs | 5 | 3 | 4.2 | 9.0% | 242.2 | $371.55 | $392.23 | +5.57% | +$5,009 |
| APH | Amphenol | High-speed connectors and cables for every DC server rack | 5 | 3 | 4.2 | 8.0% | 568.3 | $140.75 | $163.34 | +16.05% | +$12,838 |
| ETN | Eaton Corp | Power management: switchgear, UPS, PDUs for DC electrical systems | 5 | 3 | 4.2 | 8.0% | 198.5 | $403.00 | $438.23 | +8.74% | +$6,993 |
| MRVL | Marvell Technology | Custom AI accelerator ASICs for hyperscale DC workloads | 4 | 3 | 3.6 | 7.0% | 544.7 | $128.49 | $193.78 | +50.81% | +$35,561 |
| COHR | Coherent | Optical transceivers, lasers, and photonics for 800G/1.6T DC interconnects | 4 | 3 | 3.6 | 7.0% | 227.6 | $307.50 | $288.14 | -6.30% | $-4,406 |
| ANET | Arista Networks | High-speed Ethernet switching for DC network fabrics | 4 | 3 | 3.6 | 6.0% | 407.1 | $147.35 | $184.89 | +25.48% | +$15,283 |
| MU | Micron Technology | HBM and DRAM memory for AI training/inference | 3 | 5 | 3.8 | 7.0% | 166.4 | $420.59 | $829.50 | +97.22% | +$68,043 |
| ASML | ASML Holding | Sole maker of EUV lithography machines for leading-edge chip fabrication | 5 | 2 | 3.8 | 7.0% | 47.4 | $1,478.28 | $1,642.52 | +11.11% | +$7,785 |
| LRCX | Lam Research | Dominant etch equipment (45% share) for advanced chip fabrication | 5 | 2 | 3.5 | 5.0% | 189.6 | $263.66 | $294.61 | +11.74% | +$5,868 |
| VRT | Vertiv Holdings | Power distribution and thermal/cooling infrastructure | 4 | 2 | 3.2 | 5.0% | 169.4 | $295.11 | $263.05 | -10.86% | $-5,431 |
| GEV | GE Vernova | Power generation and grid equipment for DC energy demand | 4 | 2 | 3.2 | 5.0% | 50.4 | $991.32 | $1,006.76 | +1.56% | +$778 |
| GLW | Corning | Optical fiber and specialty glass for DC connectivity | 4 | 2 | 3.2 | 5.0% | 291.9 | $171.24 | $146.64 | -14.37% | $-7,181 |
| AMD | Advanced Micro Devices | DC GPUs and server CPUs; growing AI accelerator share vs Nvidia | 4 | 3 | 3.3 | 5.0% | 204.0 | $245.04 | $484.64 | +97.78% | +$48,878 |
| MPWR | Monolithic Power Systems | Dominant high-density power management ICs for AI GPU racks | 5 | 2 | 3.3 | 5.0% | 37.0 | $1,353.85 | $1,344.37 | -0.70% | $-351 |
Benchmark Comparison
S&P 500 (SPY)
$757.67
Entry: $679.46 (Apr 10) | +11.51%
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ)
$700.07
Entry: $611.07 (Apr 10) | +14.56%
Change Log
Apr 14, 2026 - Fractional Shares + Live Prices
Switched to fractional share counts (1 decimal) for precise $1M notional allocation.
NVDA weight adjusted from 10% to 11% (DC portfolio) to correct weights summing to 99%.
Integrated Finnhub API for live price updates. SPY/QQQ benchmarks corrected to Apr 10 closes ($679.46/$611.07).
Prices update daily at 7:30 AM ET via automated cron.
Apr 12, 2026 - Portfolio Finalized (v3)
OUT: AMKR (3.0, weak OSAT moat), MOD (3.0, commoditized cooling), EME (3.4, contractor moat)
IN: LRCX (3.5, 45% etch market share), AMD (3.3, growing DC GPU share + Meta deal), MPWR (3.3, dominant AI power delivery)
Moat floor raised from 3.0 to 3.2. Average moat improved from 4.0 to 4.2. MRVL adjusted to 7%, ANET to 6%. Entry prices: Apr 10 close.
⚠ This is a model portfolio for tracking purposes only. Not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.