Daily Audio Brief
~2 min · Iran/Gulf · Rachel
⚠ Day 158 / Wednesday — De-escalation is back on — the biggest one-day crude break of the conflict. Oil settled ~5% lower Tuesday — WTI ~$75.8 (-5.7%) / Brent ~$79.4 (-5.3%), a three-week low — after Treasury Secretary Bessent said a US-Iran "freedom of movement" deal on Hormuz could land Aug 4-5, a reported 60-day toll-free reopening. But Brent's failure to decisively break below $80 (~$80 Wed) says traders haven't priced the risk out, and Iran still denies direct talks. War-risk hull cover stays ~1.5-10% and voyage-specific; SPR still at its 1983 low (~311M bbl); FOMC still 3.50-3.75%. Portfolio marks reflect Tuesday's close — DC Infra jumps to +27.0% YTD on a broad AI-chip rally (MRVL +12.8%, COHR +12.4%), and Quantum ripped (ARQQ +19%, QBTS +9%, RGTI +9%, IONQ +7%) into its Aug 5-6 earnings cluster. Net: the premium is draining out — but the deal isn't signed, and a break-down re-arms the tail overnight.
- Diplomacy: Back to de-escalation — a Hormuz deal is being flagged as imminent. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said a US-Iran agreement restoring "freedom of movement" through the strait could be reached Aug 4-5, with Secretary of State Rubio echoing confidence a deal is close — the driver behind Tuesday's ~5% crude break. Reports describe a 60-day interim, toll-free reopening of the waterway, a revival of the collapsed June MOU. Qatar, Oman and Pakistan are mediating; discussions include a new "middle corridor" transit route. The caveat: Iran maintains it is only negotiating with Oman, not the US, and denies direct talks — the same gap that has broken prior agreements. Net: direction flipped back toward a deal, but sign-off is unconfirmed and the nuclear/waterway-control questions remain open.
- Oil: Sharp break lower — the biggest single-day drop of the conflict. Tuesday settles: WTI (Sep) ~$75.77 (-5.7%) / Brent (Oct) ~$79.36 (-5.3%), a three-week low, on Bessent's imminent-deal signal. Wednesday: Brent ~$80, WTI ~$76, roughly flat to slightly firmer. Brent-WTI spread ~$3.5-4; Dubai easing with the front. War premium compresses to roughly ~$1-11/bbl over a pre-war ~$69 WTI / ~$78-79 Brent baseline. The tell: Brent refused to break decisively below $80 — traders are holding a residual geopolitical premium because Iran still denies direct talks and no deal is signed. Structural deficit ~1.5M b/d and a ~1.5M-11M-bbl-scarce physical market cap the downside. Q3 forecasts span $74 (EIA) to $90+ (Goldman $80-90 band; Enverus $100 H2). Two-sided: a signed deal pulls toward the low-$70s; any breakdown or fresh incident snaps the $120+ tail (cycle peak ~$126 Brent in April) back on.
- Shipping: Iran signals the strait is open under a temporary ceasefire — but flows are still a trickle. Iran has reportedly declared Hormuz open to commercial shipping for the duration of the ceasefire, and a 60-day toll-free reopening is the core of the pending deal. Reality on the water lags the headline: only ~15 ships transited Aug 4, well below the pre-conflict norm, and a Liberian-flagged ship was hit by a projectile near Oman (fire aboard) in the latest incident — a reminder the chokepoint is still contested. War-risk hull cover stays elevated and voyage-specific — ~1.5% to 10% of hull value (from a ~0.1-0.25% norm; some US-nexus VLCCs quoted $10-14M/transit), repriced within hours of any incident; annual Gulf war-risk cover is effectively unavailable — voyage-by-voyage only. Iran/Oman are still finalizing a mutually-acceptable "middle corridor" route. Bab al-Mandeb remains a second front on Houthi risk. Enverus sees throughput recovering to ~95% of the pre-war baseline by year-end.
- Energy adjacency: EU gas still elevated but the pressure is easing with the reopening bid. TTF front-month remains stretched near ~€58-60/MWh after the ~+35% MoM Hormuz-squeeze spike, but the tone softened Tuesday alongside crude as a Qatari-LNG reopening comes into view — Qatari LNG (~25% of global supply) routes through the strait, and a 60-day toll-free transit would clear the Ras Laffan queue. EU storage still sits ~55% — ~11pts below last year and below the pace for the 80%-by-November target, so the cushion is thin even as spot cools. US Henry Hub stays insulated (~$2.9-3.1) and US LNG remains the clear relative winner. Asian spot LNG ~$16-17/MMBtu. Consumer read: June's 9.7% m/m gasoline drop pulled headline CPI -0.4% m/m (annual 3.5%, core 2.6%) — Tuesday's crude break, if it sticks, keeps the pump/utility pass-through disinflationary into the Aug/Sept prints rather than re-arming it.
- Macro spillover: The FOMC held at 3.50-3.75% Jul 29 — a fifth straight hold under new chair Warsh — with markets discounting ~a one-in-three hike chance and Sept hike risk live; the 30yr yield sits near a 19-year peak on sticky-inflation worry. Core CPI held at 2.6% in June and the Cleveland nowcast points to ~0.32% m/m for August (headline YoY ~3.4-3.6%). Tuesday's ~5% crude break is a disinflationary offset — if a Hormuz deal sticks and Brent holds sub-$80, the energy-inflation tail deflates into the Aug/Sept prints, softening the hike case at the margin. But the SPR still sits at a 1983 low (~311M bbl), leaving the shock-absorber thin against any breakdown; GDP growth a steady ~2.0-2.1%. On defense capex, the Pentagon-restock thesis holds regardless of the near-term ceasefire path — the LMT/RTX/AVAV tailwind stays intact.
- Portfolio read: Marks are Tuesday's close — the growth baskets ripped on a broad AI-chip and quantum melt-up, unaffected by the crude break. The three growth sleeves are war-insulated — they trade on the AI/datacenter cycle, not the Gulf headline. Tuesday's action: DC Infra surged on an AI-memory/optics bid (MRVL +12.8% on next-gen AI storage launch + KeyBanc $400 PT, COHR +12.4%, GLW +9.0%, LRCX +7.9%, MU +7.6%, AMD +7.0%, AVGO +6.6%) — now +27.0% YTD, well ahead of QQQ. Quantum ripped into earnings (ARQQ +19.1%, QBTS +9.3%, RGTI +8.9%, IONQ +7.4% on its ~$1.8B SkyWater close) — basket back to just -2.2% YTD. Robotics +7.8% (TER +10.3% on a Q2 blowout, AVAV +6.2%, CGNX +6.1%; ROK -7.4% on a sell-the-news Q3). SPY +13.5% / QQQ +18.5%. The energy/defense hedge is quiet on a de-escalation day — that's the point of holding it. Swing factors: whether the Hormuz deal signs, and the earnings cluster — IonQ (Aug 5), Rigetti/D-Wave (Aug 6). Live marks below.
Triggers to watch
• Does the Hormuz deal actually sign? — Bessent flagged Aug 4-5; a signed 60-day toll-free reopening pulls crude toward the low-$70s. Iran still denies direct US talks, so watch for confirmation vs. another collapse like the June MOU.
• Why won't Brent break $80? — Despite the ~5% crack, Brent held ~$80 — traders aren't pricing the risk fully out. A decisive break sub-$80 confirms de-escalation; a bounce says the market doubts the deal, and any fresh incident re-arms the $120+ tail (cycle peak ~$126).
• EU gas — TTF still near ~€58-60/MWh but easing with the reopening bid; storage ~11pts below last year leaves no cushion. Watch whether a toll-free transit clears the Ras Laffan Qatari-LNG queue.
• Hormuz on the water — only ~15 ships transited Aug 4 and a Liberian-flagged vessel was hit near Oman; flows still lag the headline. Any fresh incident reprices war-risk cover (~1.5-10% of hull) within hours.
• Earnings cluster — Quantum ripped into it (ARQQ +19%, QBTS/RGTI/IONQ +7-9%). Watch IonQ (Aug 5), Rigetti/D-Wave (Aug 6) and COHR (Aug 12) to confirm the AI/quantum bid is durable, not just pre-print positioning.
• Why won't Brent break $80? — Despite the ~5% crack, Brent held ~$80 — traders aren't pricing the risk fully out. A decisive break sub-$80 confirms de-escalation; a bounce says the market doubts the deal, and any fresh incident re-arms the $120+ tail (cycle peak ~$126).
• EU gas — TTF still near ~€58-60/MWh but easing with the reopening bid; storage ~11pts below last year leaves no cushion. Watch whether a toll-free transit clears the Ras Laffan Qatari-LNG queue.
• Hormuz on the water — only ~15 ships transited Aug 4 and a Liberian-flagged vessel was hit near Oman; flows still lag the headline. Any fresh incident reprices war-risk cover (~1.5-10% of hull) within hours.
• Earnings cluster — Quantum ripped into it (ARQQ +19%, QBTS/RGTI/IONQ +7-9%). Watch IonQ (Aug 5), Rigetti/D-Wave (Aug 6) and COHR (Aug 12) to confirm the AI/quantum bid is durable, not just pre-print positioning.
Risk Indicators
Hormuz Status
REOPENING BID — 60-DAY TOLL-FREE DEAL FLAGGED FOR AUG 4-5; FLOWS STILL A TRICKLE
Day 158. The shift: Bessent said a US-Iran "freedom of movement" deal could land Aug 4-5 — a reported 60-day toll-free reopening — and Iran signals the strait is open under the ceasefire. But reality lags: only ~15 ships transited Aug 4 vs the pre-war norm, and a Liberian-flagged ship was hit by a projectile near Oman (fire aboard). War-risk hull cover stays elevated and voyage-specific — ~1.5-10% of hull value (from ~0.1-0.25% norm; some US-nexus VLCCs $10-14M/transit); annual Gulf cover effectively unavailable — voyage-by-voyage only. Iran/Oman still finalizing a "middle corridor" route; Iran insists it negotiates only with Oman, not the US. Enverus sees ~95% of pre-war throughput back by year-end. The tell: does the deal sign, or collapse like the June MOU.
Brent War Premium
~$1-11/bbl — compressing hard as crude breaks ~5% on the reopening deal
WTI ~$75.8 (-5.7%) / Brent ~$79.4 (-5.3%) settle Aug 4, a three-week low; Brent ~$80 Wed. Brent-WTI spread ~$3.5-4; Dubai easing with the front. Premium vs a ~$69 WTI / ~$78-79 Brent pre-war baseline is nearly gone. Driver: Bessent's imminent-deal signal on a 60-day toll-free Hormuz reopening. The catch: Brent refused to break decisively below $80 — a residual premium the market won't release until a deal signs and Iran confirms. Structural deficit ~1.5M b/d. Scenarios: signed deal → low-$70s (Q3 EIA $74); stall → chops around $80; breakdown/incident → snaps back toward the $120+ tail (cycle peak ~$126).
Paper vs Physical Gap
Gap compressing — paper leads lower on the deal, but physical hasn't confirmed yet
Brent-WTI ~$3.5-4 (Brent ~$79-80 / WTI ~$76); Dubai's prompt premium for Gulf grades easing with the front. Paper is re-pricing lower on Bessent's imminent-deal signal, but physical hasn't validated it — only ~15 ships transited Aug 4, tankers still queued off Ras Laffan, and a fresh vessel strike near Oman. The tape is swinging from a contested-outage premium back toward a fundamentals read — but Brent holding $80 says traders keep a residual premium. Gap keeps compressing only if the deal signs and cargoes clear; it re-widens violently on any fresh incident or collapse.
U.S. Energy Insulation
+1.2M bbl/day
13.6M vs 12.4M pre-war domestic production
SPR Level
~44% filled — LOWEST SINCE 1983
~311M bbl / 714M capacity | Lowest level since 1983 after a ~99M-bbl draw since March | 10yr range: 44-94% (311M-638M bbl) | The shock-absorber is now thin just as the physical Hormuz outage bites
Supply at Risk - Global Snapshot
~18M
bbl/day at risk (Hormuz)
RESTORED
Saudi E-W pipeline + Manifa
3.2M
bbl/day diverted (Red Sea)
~37 days
SPR buffer — lowest since 1983
+1.2M
bbl/day US surplus vs pre-war
■ S&P 500 FORECAST: Probability-weighted expected return by Nov 1, 2026: -3% to +3% | Day 79: Iran formalized the Strait via the new Persian Gulf Strait Authority — tolls up to $2M/ship in yuan/BTC, US blockade running in parallel. Trump signals "few days" patience window. Brent $108.09 / WTI $101.78 / Dubai ~$104.50; spread $6.31, war premium ~$38. Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed chair into a 3.8% CPI / structural-expectations-at-19-yr-high backdrop — Fed minutes leaned toward removing the easing bias. The big tape signal of the day was the Trump $2B/9-company quantum CHIPS announcement: every quantum holding ripped (QBTS +33, RGTI +31, ARQQ +26), and AI-optics (GLW/COHR/ANET +5-6%) joined the bid. Diplomatic ladder is symbolic; toll regime is structural; portfolio engine is government-of-quantum + AI-optics.
15-25% Probability ↓↓
Hormuz Reopens / Diplomatic Breakthrough (DEAL PATH)
- Brent Target
- $80-90 by Q3
- S&P 500 Impact
- Recovery rally, +5-8%
- S&P 500 by Nov 1
- +8% to +12%
- Sector Rotation
- Energy down, consumer up
- Trigger
- Trump-Xi Beijing summit Thu opens China-brokered parallel track - US-China joint statement opposing Hormuz tolls already on record. VP Vance Thu: "progress" being made in talks. Iran-Israel-Lebanon talks resume Washington Thu (Lebanon track). 14-point MoU revival would still require Iran to soften on enrichment moratorium + Hormuz sequencing, or US to accept partial framework. Pakistan/Qatar mediators publicly hopeful.
- Obstacle
- Iran FM Araghchi at BRICS Delhi (Thu) accuses UAE of direct co-belligerence - first formal Gulf-state-as-co-belligerent claim - hardens Tehran's diplomatic position rather than softening. Fujairah ship-seizure Thu directly threatens UAE bypass route. Hezbollah drone wounds Israeli civilians near border Thu; IDF responds with strikes + evacuation warnings. Trump Mon called ceasefire "on life support" after rejecting Iran's MoU response. Past framework attempts collapsed within days.
40-50% Probability ↑
Frozen Conflict / Toll Regime Persists
- Brent Target
- $95-115 sustained
- S&P 500 Impact
- Sideways, ±3%
- S&P 500 by Nov 1
- 0% to +4%
- Sector Rotation
- Energy flat-up, defensives lead
- Trigger
- Trump-Xi summit + Vance "progress" framing keep deal track alive on paper but no breakthrough; Iran's UAE-accusation hardens posture; Fujairah seizure stays single-incident; rhetoric ladder doesn't translate to Iranian energy/enrichment strikes. Iran PGSA tolling regime persists (US-China statement notwithstanding). Hormuz reopens only selectively (Qatar LNG-style permits). Israel-Lebanon front grinds - Hezbollah drone wounds Israeli civilians Thu, IDF strikes + evacuation warnings, expanded ground op preparation continues. Slow attrition without Iranian infra strikes. Aramco's 2027-stability warning underwrites sustained $95-115 band.
30-40% Probability ↑
Escalation / Infrastructure Hits
- Brent Target
- $130-150+
- S&P 500 Impact
- -10-15% correction
- S&P 500 by Nov 1
- -8% to -15%
- Sector Rotation
- Energy spikes, broad selloff
- Trigger
- Fujairah ship-seizure Thu opens UAE-east-coast bypass route to attack; Iran's BRICS-Delhi accusation of UAE direct co-belligerence sets predicate for further UAE-Iran kinetic exchange. If a second/third Fujairah-area incident follows, ADNOC export terminal directly exposed. Netanyahu "dismantled" + ground-op rhetoric still on table; Israel coordinating contingency strikes vs Iran energy/officials with US (CNN). Hezbollah drone-on-Israeli-civilians threshold crossed Thu. Russia rearming Iran via Caspian (ISW). Kharg strike / Houthi Bab al-Mandeb closure / direct Iran-Israel resumption. Iran parliament passes Hormuz toll-law 2nd reading.
◆ WATCHLIST: Names researched but not yet held - grouped by portfolio. Each entry shows Moat / Valuation / Composite score (Moat×0.6 + Val×0.4, same rubric as holdings tables) plus YTD performance, the thesis, and the trigger that would move it from watchlist → portfolio. Composite ≥ 3.5 = buy on trigger. < 3.0 = monitor only.
DC Infrastructure
ARM $221
Moat 5 / Val 2 / 3.8 · YTD +100%
Custom-CPU royalty layer for Graviton, Cobalt, Axion; v9 royalty rates accelerating in data center.
Trigger: pullback below $180, OR v9 royalty stall.
Trigger: pullback below $180, OR v9 royalty stall.
INTC $118
Moat 3 / Val 2 / 2.6 · YTD +226%
Agentic-CPU re-rate has played out. Foundry deals with Apple + Google driving the move; Granite Rapids landed in the right workload.
Trigger: pullback to $80 OR Granite Rapids miss creating asymmetric re-entry.
Trigger: pullback to $80 OR Granite Rapids miss creating asymmetric re-entry.
SMCI $32
Moat 2 / Val 3 / 2.4 · YTD +4%
AI server integrator - leverage to total servers shipped. Governance overhang lingering.
Trigger: clean audit cycle + visible margin floor.
Trigger: clean audit cycle + visible margin floor.
AI Robotics
KTOS $52
Moat 3 / Val 1 / 2.2 · YTD -30%
Defense autonomy (Valkyrie scaling to 40/yr by '28, hypersonics $400M '26 → $700M '27). Q1 strong + FY raised; market punished on Q2 guide + valuation.
Trigger: FCF inflection OR P/E < 100x. Currently ~330x with negative FCF and recent insider selling.
Trigger: FCF inflection OR P/E < 100x. Currently ~330x with negative FCF and recent insider selling.
MCHP $97
Moat 3 / Val 2 / 2.6 · YTD +56%
Motor control / microcontroller franchise - humanoid BOM exposure (every robot needs precision motion).
Trigger: pullback under $80.
Trigger: pullback under $80.
Quantum
XNDU → promoted to Quantum portfolio at 3% (May 15, 2026). Q1 print delivered: revenue +300% YoY, AMD CFD benchmark (25× CPU speedup), customer pipeline expanded (Lockheed, TELUS, Fidelity FCAT). Funded by trimming QBTS 25→22%. See Quantum tab change log for details.
QUBT $11
Moat 2 / Val 2 / 2.0 · YTD +19%
Lower-quality pure-play; basket already covers gate + annealing + photonic.
Trigger: needs material quality improvement (revenue traction or credible roadmap proof) - currently a pass.
Trigger: needs material quality improvement (revenue traction or credible roadmap proof) - currently a pass.
Private - track for IPO signal
• Atom Computing - neutral-atom quantum; well-funded.
• PsiQuantum - photonic quantum (competes with XNDU); rumored '26 listing.
• Quantinuum - HON owns ~54%, so indirect exposure via HON in Robotics.
• Anduril - defense autonomy; rumored '26 IPO.
• PsiQuantum - photonic quantum (competes with XNDU); rumored '26 listing.
• Quantinuum - HON owns ~54%, so indirect exposure via HON in Robotics.
• Anduril - defense autonomy; rumored '26 IPO.
⚠ Watchlist is a research pipeline. Not investment advice. Composite scores and triggers can change as fundamentals evolve - verify current prices and conditions before acting.
△ PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE: All three portfolios benchmarked against SPY and QQQ since April 10, 2026. Returns are weighted by holding allocations. Data refreshed daily from Yahoo Finance close prices.
Cumulative Return Since April 10, 2026
Summary
| Portfolio | Return | vs SPY | vs QQQ |
|---|
⚠ Returns are computed from closing prices and reflect model portfolios -- no transaction costs, slippage, or taxes are included. Not investment advice.
⚡ DC INFRASTRUCTURE PORTFOLIO - FINALIZED: 15 holdings, conviction-weighted. $1,000,000 notional. Entry date: April 10, 2026. Thesis: Custom silicon, optical networking, power/cooling, and construction names benefiting from AI data center infrastructure buildout. ● LOCKED
Today’s Movers (│Δ│ ≥ 5%)
MRVL +12.81%
Unveiled next-gen AI memory/storage products at FMS 2026 (Bravera SC6 PCIe 6.0 controller); KeyBanc lifted PT to $400 on AI-datacenter demand ahead of Aug 27 earnings.
COHR +12.35%
AI-optics bid ahead of Aug 12 earnings on the NVIDIA co-packaged-optics partnership and new Alibaba CPO tie-up; datacenter-ROI confidence firming.
GLW +9.04%
Optical-networking bid on AI-datacenter fiber demand; rebound off a soft month, riding COHR/VRT sector follow-through.
LRCX +7.85%
Rebound off a ~16% monthly drawdown on rising memory-maker capex and HBM/advanced-packaging tool demand; median PT ~$360 implies ~22% upside.
MU +7.62%
Bounce off a sharp July selloff on constrained HBM supply and AI-memory demand; BofA reiterated bullish, semis rallied broadly on Palantir's beat.
AMD +7.00%
Ran into its Q2 print on AI-datacenter momentum (data-center revenue later reported more than doubling YoY); broad semis melt-up on Palantir's strong results.
AVGO +6.61%
Sector-wide AI-semi rally on Palantir's earnings beat; recovered after Goldman pulled it from its conviction list a day earlier.
$1,269,664
Portfolio Value
+$269,672
Total P&L
+26.97%
Return
SPY: +13.52%
vs S&P 500
QQQ: +18.46%
vs NASDAQ 100
Holdings
| Ticker | Company | Role in Stack | Moat | Value | Score | Weight % | Shares | Entry Price | Current Price | P&L % | P&L $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | Nvidia | GPU/AI accelerator silicon powering DC compute | 5 | 4 | 4.6 | 11.0% | 583.1 | $188.63 | $211.94 | +12.36% | +$13,592 |
| AVGO | Broadcom | Custom AI chips (Google TPUs) and networking ASICs | 5 | 3 | 4.2 | 9.0% | 242.2 | $371.55 | $418.16 | +12.54% | +$11,289 |
| APH | Amphenol | High-speed connectors and cables for every DC server rack | 5 | 3 | 4.2 | 8.0% | 568.3 | $140.75 | $171.33 | +21.73% | +$17,379 |
| ETN | Eaton Corp | Power management: switchgear, UPS, PDUs for DC electrical systems | 5 | 3 | 4.2 | 8.0% | 198.5 | $403.00 | $444.77 | +10.36% | +$8,291 |
| MRVL | Marvell Technology | Custom AI accelerator ASICs for hyperscale DC workloads | 4 | 3 | 3.6 | 7.0% | 544.7 | $128.49 | $218.59 | +70.12% | +$49,077 |
| COHR | Coherent | Optical transceivers, lasers, and photonics for 800G/1.6T DC interconnects | 4 | 3 | 3.6 | 7.0% | 227.6 | $307.50 | $323.73 | +5.28% | +$3,694 |
| ANET | Arista Networks | High-speed Ethernet switching for DC network fabrics | 4 | 3 | 3.6 | 6.0% | 407.1 | $147.35 | $190.51 | +29.29% | +$17,570 |
| MU | Micron Technology | HBM and DRAM memory for AI training/inference | 3 | 5 | 3.8 | 7.0% | 166.4 | $420.59 | $892.67 | +112.24% | +$78,554 |
| ASML | ASML Holding | Sole maker of EUV lithography machines for leading-edge chip fabrication | 5 | 2 | 3.8 | 7.0% | 47.4 | $1,478.28 | $1,711.89 | +15.80% | +$11,073 |
| LRCX | Lam Research | Dominant etch equipment (45% share) for advanced chip fabrication | 5 | 2 | 3.5 | 5.0% | 189.6 | $263.66 | $317.74 | +20.51% | +$10,254 |
| VRT | Vertiv Holdings | Power distribution and thermal/cooling infrastructure | 4 | 2 | 3.2 | 5.0% | 169.4 | $295.11 | $269.93 | -8.53% | $-4,265 |
| GEV | GE Vernova | Power generation and grid equipment for DC energy demand | 4 | 2 | 3.2 | 5.0% | 50.4 | $991.32 | $1,018.53 | +2.74% | +$1,371 |
| GLW | Corning | Optical fiber and specialty glass for DC connectivity | 4 | 2 | 3.2 | 5.0% | 291.9 | $171.24 | $159.89 | -6.63% | $-3,313 |
| AMD | Advanced Micro Devices | DC GPUs and server CPUs; growing AI accelerator share vs Nvidia | 4 | 3 | 3.3 | 5.0% | 204.0 | $245.04 | $518.58 | +111.63% | +$55,802 |
| MPWR | Monolithic Power Systems | Dominant high-density power management ICs for AI GPU racks | 5 | 2 | 3.3 | 5.0% | 37.0 | $1,353.85 | $1,335.03 | -1.39% | $-696 |
Benchmark Comparison
S&P 500 (SPY)
$771.33
Entry: $679.46 (Apr 10) | +13.52%
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ)
$723.85
Entry: $611.07 (Apr 10) | +18.46%
Change Log
Apr 14, 2026 - Fractional Shares + Live Prices
Switched to fractional share counts (1 decimal) for precise $1M notional allocation.
NVDA weight adjusted from 10% to 11% (DC portfolio) to correct weights summing to 99%.
Integrated Finnhub API for live price updates. SPY/QQQ benchmarks corrected to Apr 10 closes ($679.46/$611.07).
Prices update daily at 7:30 AM ET via automated cron.
Apr 12, 2026 - Portfolio Finalized (v3)
OUT: AMKR (3.0, weak OSAT moat), MOD (3.0, commoditized cooling), EME (3.4, contractor moat)
IN: LRCX (3.5, 45% etch market share), AMD (3.3, growing DC GPU share + Meta deal), MPWR (3.3, dominant AI power delivery)
Moat floor raised from 3.0 to 3.2. Average moat improved from 4.0 to 4.2. MRVL adjusted to 7%, ANET to 6%. Entry prices: Apr 10 close.
⚠ This is a model portfolio for tracking purposes only. Not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.