Daily Audio Brief
~2 min · Iran/Gulf · Rachel
⚠ Day 152 / Thursday — The US struck back: after Iran's ballistic-missile launch at US forces, CENTCOM resumed military strikes on dozens of IRGC targets, ending the brief pause and resolving yesterday's biggest swing factor to the hawkish side. The war premium is fully back on — Brent ~$92, WTI ~$85 after Wednesday's ~8%/~6.6% surge, with US crude inventories at a multi-year low compounding the supply bid. The US naval blockade on Iranian ports stays tight (20 vessels redirected, two disabled since Jul 14). The counterintuitive twist: Hormuz transits rose — 14 commodity vessels crossed Wednesday (vs single digits last week) as the US Navy escorts tankers, even as Iran rejected Oman's joint-management plan and demanded full control. On the tape, the chip/memory rout deepened: the SOX hit a 2.5-month low, Micron down ~34% from its June peak, and DC-infra/quantum names down another 6-12% on AI-capex-ROI doubt, the CXMT Shanghai IPO ($8.6B), and a wave of insider selling. The FOMC held at 3.50-3.75% yesterday but higher yields pressured growth. The US SPR remains at its lowest since 1983 (~311M bbl). Net: oil + defense bid on the retaliation; growth baskets still clubbed by the SOX cycle.
- Diplomacy: The US retaliated — the swing factor resolved hawkish. After Iran's ballistic-missile launch at US forces, CENTCOM resumed strikes on dozens of IRGC targets on Jul 30, ending the brief pause. This was the single biggest open question from yesterday and it landed on the escalatory side. The US naval blockade of Iranian ports stays in force (reimposed Jul 14): as of Jul 29, US forces had redirected 20 commercial vessels, disabled two, and boarded two others attempting to enter/exit Iranian waters, while CENTCOM says it still guarantees freedom of navigation through Hormuz for other traffic. The Oman off-ramp stays dead — Iran rejected joint management and demanded total oversight of inbound traffic and partial oversight of outbound lanes. Mediators (Qatar/Pakistan) have gone quiet under the renewed strikes. Net: re-escalatory and now two-sided kinetic — the question shifts to whether the US strikes stay contained or draw a further Iranian response.
- Oil: Higher again — the premium is fully re-armed on the US strikes + a multi-year US inventory low. Brent ~$92 (~$91.80-$92.12) and WTI ~$85 (~$84.85-$85.13) Thursday, extending Wednesday's ~8% (Brent) / ~6.6% (WTI) surge. Prices dipped early Thursday then recovered as the renewed US military action against Iran and dwindling US crude stockpiles (multi-year low) refocused supply concerns. Brent-WTI spread ~$7; Dubai's premium to Brent firm as prompt-barrel risk stays high. War premium now roughly ~$13-23/bbl over a pre-war ~$69 WTI / ~$78-79 Brent baseline. Analysts see Brent $80-$100 as intensity ebbs and flows; the $120+ tail (Goldman) stays armed with a two-sided kinetic exchange now live — a Gulf energy-infra hit is the path to it (cycle peak ~$126 Brent / ~$117 WTI in late April).
- Shipping: A defiant uptick in transits — but under US escort and a tight blockade. Counter to the kinetic escalation, Hormuz traffic rose: 14 commodity vessels crossed Wednesday in both directions (vs single digits last week), with the US Navy escorting some tankers through. Flow is bifurcated — open southern-corridor transits fell after Iranian strikes on commercial shipping since Jul 7, so Iranian- and Chinese-linked vessels route via the northern corridor. The US blockade of Iranian ports continues (20 redirected / 2 disabled / 2 boarded), specifically targeting Iran-port traffic while preserving Hormuz freedom-of-navigation. War-risk hull cover stays elevated — marine war-risk premiums ~7.5-10% of hull value (from a 1-3% norm), single-VLCC cover reported topping $10M per transit, insurers selective/voyage-specific and hesitant on Saudi-linked vessels — costs now described as structural. ~47M bbl of Iranian crude sits stranded on Gulf tankers (up from mid-July). Bab al-Mandeb stays a second front — Houthis blockade Saudi ports and are weighing transit fees on the southern Red Sea. Saudi E-W and UAE Fujairah bypass lines remain the pressure-relief valves at near-full capacity; seven Hormuz-bypass pipeline projects could add 3.8M b/d by end-2027.
- Energy adjacency: Qatari LNG (~25% of global LNG) stays physically gated by Hormuz — Iran's earlier strait closure already halted Qatari LNG shipments, and the rejected Oman plan keeps the transit-gap risk on rather than easing. TTF stays structurally firm (mid-€40s/MWh) and firms with crude at ~$92; US Henry Hub ~$2.9-3.1, domestic gas insulated and US LNG the relative winner. On the consumer side, June CPI (released Jul 14) showed a 9.7% m/m drop in gasoline that pulled headline CPI -0.4% m/m — but that predates the July spike, and crude at ~$92 re-adds pump-price pass-through risk into the July/August prints. The Red Sea re-routing tax persists as a second insurance/freight drag.
- Macro spillover: The FOMC held at 3.50-3.75% yesterday — a fifth straight hold, as the base case expected — but the bond-market reaction pushed Treasury yields higher, which pressured growth/semis, and markets still carry hike risk into Sept/Oct. The dominant macro signal remains the AI-capex reassessment: the SOX hit a 2.5-month low, off ~18% from its June peak, on investor doubt that datacenter capex earns its return — amplified by China's CXMT Shanghai IPO ($8.6B record) and reports of Chinese DUV-lithography mass production, plus a wave of insider selling at Micron/Nvidia/Broadcom/Marvell/Lam. Some capital is rotating chips → software. Crude at ~$92 re-adds inflation-tail risk into the CPI path, and the SPR at a 1983 low keeps the policy shock-absorber thin. On defense capex, the Pentagon restock thesis holds and the two-sided kinetic exchange reinforces the LMT/RTX tailwind — the one clean beneficiary of today's re-escalation.
- Portfolio read: Same split as yesterday, deeper. The re-escalation keeps the oil bid on and reinforces the defense leg (LMT/RTX) — the clean winners. But the SOX selloff extended, and the three growth baskets are war-insulated, not selloff-insulated: their P&L tracks the semiconductor cycle and AI-capex sentiment, both still cracking. DC Infra took the brunt (Corning -12%, Micron -9%, AMD -8%, Marvell/Lam/Vertiv/GE Vernova all red) yet still leads YTD at +5.9%; Robotics -1.5% (AMAT -8%); Quantum -23.7%, the deepest drawdown, down another 6-10% across QBTS/RGTI/IONQ. SPY +7.4% / QQQ +8.3% for reference — the growth book is lagging the index badly through this rout. Net today: defense + oil bid, growth clubbed. Swing factors: whether the US strikes stay contained, and whether the chip rout finds a floor (Lam/quantum earnings land Aug 5-6). Live marks below.
Triggers to watch
• Does the US strike stay contained? — CENTCOM resumed strikes on dozens of IRGC targets; whether Iran counters again (and whether it touches Gulf energy infra) is now the single biggest swing factor for the war premium and the $120+ tail.
• Oman plan is dead — Iran rejected joint management and demanded full control of Hormuz; the near-term reopening catalyst is off the table, keeping the physical bifurcation and elevated war-risk cover in place even as escorted transits tick up.
• Saudi/UAE energy-infra hit — with Houthis blockading Saudi ports and the two-sided kinetic exchange live, a direct hit on Gulf production/export infra is the clearest lever to snap Brent toward $120+ (Goldman's tail).
• Chip-rout floor — the SOX 2.5-month low, CXMT IPO, China DUV progress, and insider selling are the dominant risk to the growth book; watch IonQ (Aug 5), Rigetti/D-Wave (Aug 6) earnings and whether datacenter-ROI doubt stabilizes.
• US crude inventories — stockpiles at a multi-year low are amplifying the oil bid; the next EIA print is a key read on whether the supply-tightness leg has more room to run.
• Oman plan is dead — Iran rejected joint management and demanded full control of Hormuz; the near-term reopening catalyst is off the table, keeping the physical bifurcation and elevated war-risk cover in place even as escorted transits tick up.
• Saudi/UAE energy-infra hit — with Houthis blockading Saudi ports and the two-sided kinetic exchange live, a direct hit on Gulf production/export infra is the clearest lever to snap Brent toward $120+ (Goldman's tail).
• Chip-rout floor — the SOX 2.5-month low, CXMT IPO, China DUV progress, and insider selling are the dominant risk to the growth book; watch IonQ (Aug 5), Rigetti/D-Wave (Aug 6) earnings and whether datacenter-ROI doubt stabilizes.
• US crude inventories — stockpiles at a multi-year low are amplifying the oil bid; the next EIA print is a key read on whether the supply-tightness leg has more room to run.
Risk Indicators
Hormuz Status
CONTESTED — US NAVY ESCORTS LIFT TRANSITS EVEN AS BLOCKADE TIGHTENS AND OMAN PLAN STAYS REJECTED
Day 152. Counter to the escalation, Hormuz transits rose — 14 commodity vessels crossed Wednesday (vs single digits last week) with the US Navy escorting some tankers. Flow is bifurcated: open southern-corridor transits fell after Iranian strikes on shipping since Jul 7, pushing Iranian/Chinese-linked vessels to the northern corridor. The US blockade of Iranian ports tightens (20 redirected / 2 disabled / 2 boarded) while preserving Hormuz freedom-of-navigation. Iran rejected Oman's joint-management plan, demanding full control — no reopening catalyst. Hull war-risk cover ~7.5-10% of hull value (from 1-3% norm), single-VLCC cover reported topping $10M per transit; insurers selective, costs now structural. ~47M bbl Iranian crude stranded on Gulf tankers. Saudi E-W and UAE Fujairah bypass lines at near-full capacity.
Brent War Premium
~$13-23/bbl — fully re-armed on the US strikes + a multi-year US inventory low
Brent ~$92 / WTI ~$85 — extending Wednesday's ~8%/~6.6% surge; dipped early Thursday then recovered on the renewed US strikes and dwindling US crude stockpiles. Brent-WTI spread ~$7; Dubai's premium firm as prompt-barrel risk stays high. Premium vs a ~$69 WTI / ~$78-79 Brent pre-war baseline. Scenarios: strikes stay contained + de-escalation → premium fades toward $5-10; two-sided kinetic exchange continues but no infra hit → $13-23 (analysts see $80-100 range); sustained strikes or a Gulf energy-infra hit → snaps to $40+ (Goldman's $120+ tail, cycle peak ~$126).
Paper vs Physical Gap
Gap wide — paper prices the two-sided kinetic exchange + tight US inventories while physical stays bifurcated
Brent-WTI ~$7 (Brent ~$92 / WTI ~$85) as the geopolitical bid stays on; Dubai's premium for non-Hormuz Gulf grades firm. Paper extended higher on the renewed US strikes and a multi-year US inventory low, while physical is bifurcated — escorted transits up, Iranian/Chinese cargoes on the northern corridor, ~47M bbl stranded, Oman plan rejected. The tape prices a contested-but-flowing partial outage with OPEC+ spare, US +1.2M b/d, and Saudi/UAE bypass routes cushioning. Gap widens violently on a Gulf energy-infra strike; it compresses only on de-escalation and unrestricted Hormuz flow.
U.S. Energy Insulation
+1.2M bbl/day
13.6M vs 12.4M pre-war domestic production
SPR Level
~44% filled — LOWEST SINCE 1983
~311M bbl / 714M capacity | Lowest level since 1983 after a ~99M-bbl draw since March | 10yr range: 44-94% (311M-638M bbl) | The shock-absorber is now thin just as the physical Hormuz outage bites
Supply at Risk - Global Snapshot
~18M
bbl/day at risk (Hormuz)
RESTORED
Saudi E-W pipeline + Manifa
3.2M
bbl/day diverted (Red Sea)
~37 days
SPR buffer — lowest since 1983
+1.2M
bbl/day US surplus vs pre-war
■ S&P 500 FORECAST: Probability-weighted expected return by Nov 1, 2026: -3% to +3% | Day 79: Iran formalized the Strait via the new Persian Gulf Strait Authority — tolls up to $2M/ship in yuan/BTC, US blockade running in parallel. Trump signals "few days" patience window. Brent $108.09 / WTI $101.78 / Dubai ~$104.50; spread $6.31, war premium ~$38. Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed chair into a 3.8% CPI / structural-expectations-at-19-yr-high backdrop — Fed minutes leaned toward removing the easing bias. The big tape signal of the day was the Trump $2B/9-company quantum CHIPS announcement: every quantum holding ripped (QBTS +33, RGTI +31, ARQQ +26), and AI-optics (GLW/COHR/ANET +5-6%) joined the bid. Diplomatic ladder is symbolic; toll regime is structural; portfolio engine is government-of-quantum + AI-optics.
15-25% Probability ↓↓
Hormuz Reopens / Diplomatic Breakthrough (DEAL PATH)
- Brent Target
- $80-90 by Q3
- S&P 500 Impact
- Recovery rally, +5-8%
- S&P 500 by Nov 1
- +8% to +12%
- Sector Rotation
- Energy down, consumer up
- Trigger
- Trump-Xi Beijing summit Thu opens China-brokered parallel track - US-China joint statement opposing Hormuz tolls already on record. VP Vance Thu: "progress" being made in talks. Iran-Israel-Lebanon talks resume Washington Thu (Lebanon track). 14-point MoU revival would still require Iran to soften on enrichment moratorium + Hormuz sequencing, or US to accept partial framework. Pakistan/Qatar mediators publicly hopeful.
- Obstacle
- Iran FM Araghchi at BRICS Delhi (Thu) accuses UAE of direct co-belligerence - first formal Gulf-state-as-co-belligerent claim - hardens Tehran's diplomatic position rather than softening. Fujairah ship-seizure Thu directly threatens UAE bypass route. Hezbollah drone wounds Israeli civilians near border Thu; IDF responds with strikes + evacuation warnings. Trump Mon called ceasefire "on life support" after rejecting Iran's MoU response. Past framework attempts collapsed within days.
40-50% Probability ↑
Frozen Conflict / Toll Regime Persists
- Brent Target
- $95-115 sustained
- S&P 500 Impact
- Sideways, ±3%
- S&P 500 by Nov 1
- 0% to +4%
- Sector Rotation
- Energy flat-up, defensives lead
- Trigger
- Trump-Xi summit + Vance "progress" framing keep deal track alive on paper but no breakthrough; Iran's UAE-accusation hardens posture; Fujairah seizure stays single-incident; rhetoric ladder doesn't translate to Iranian energy/enrichment strikes. Iran PGSA tolling regime persists (US-China statement notwithstanding). Hormuz reopens only selectively (Qatar LNG-style permits). Israel-Lebanon front grinds - Hezbollah drone wounds Israeli civilians Thu, IDF strikes + evacuation warnings, expanded ground op preparation continues. Slow attrition without Iranian infra strikes. Aramco's 2027-stability warning underwrites sustained $95-115 band.
30-40% Probability ↑
Escalation / Infrastructure Hits
- Brent Target
- $130-150+
- S&P 500 Impact
- -10-15% correction
- S&P 500 by Nov 1
- -8% to -15%
- Sector Rotation
- Energy spikes, broad selloff
- Trigger
- Fujairah ship-seizure Thu opens UAE-east-coast bypass route to attack; Iran's BRICS-Delhi accusation of UAE direct co-belligerence sets predicate for further UAE-Iran kinetic exchange. If a second/third Fujairah-area incident follows, ADNOC export terminal directly exposed. Netanyahu "dismantled" + ground-op rhetoric still on table; Israel coordinating contingency strikes vs Iran energy/officials with US (CNN). Hezbollah drone-on-Israeli-civilians threshold crossed Thu. Russia rearming Iran via Caspian (ISW). Kharg strike / Houthi Bab al-Mandeb closure / direct Iran-Israel resumption. Iran parliament passes Hormuz toll-law 2nd reading.
◆ WATCHLIST: Names researched but not yet held - grouped by portfolio. Each entry shows Moat / Valuation / Composite score (Moat×0.6 + Val×0.4, same rubric as holdings tables) plus YTD performance, the thesis, and the trigger that would move it from watchlist → portfolio. Composite ≥ 3.5 = buy on trigger. < 3.0 = monitor only.
DC Infrastructure
ARM $221
Moat 5 / Val 2 / 3.8 · YTD +100%
Custom-CPU royalty layer for Graviton, Cobalt, Axion; v9 royalty rates accelerating in data center.
Trigger: pullback below $180, OR v9 royalty stall.
Trigger: pullback below $180, OR v9 royalty stall.
INTC $118
Moat 3 / Val 2 / 2.6 · YTD +226%
Agentic-CPU re-rate has played out. Foundry deals with Apple + Google driving the move; Granite Rapids landed in the right workload.
Trigger: pullback to $80 OR Granite Rapids miss creating asymmetric re-entry.
Trigger: pullback to $80 OR Granite Rapids miss creating asymmetric re-entry.
SMCI $32
Moat 2 / Val 3 / 2.4 · YTD +4%
AI server integrator - leverage to total servers shipped. Governance overhang lingering.
Trigger: clean audit cycle + visible margin floor.
Trigger: clean audit cycle + visible margin floor.
AI Robotics
KTOS $52
Moat 3 / Val 1 / 2.2 · YTD -30%
Defense autonomy (Valkyrie scaling to 40/yr by '28, hypersonics $400M '26 → $700M '27). Q1 strong + FY raised; market punished on Q2 guide + valuation.
Trigger: FCF inflection OR P/E < 100x. Currently ~330x with negative FCF and recent insider selling.
Trigger: FCF inflection OR P/E < 100x. Currently ~330x with negative FCF and recent insider selling.
MCHP $97
Moat 3 / Val 2 / 2.6 · YTD +56%
Motor control / microcontroller franchise - humanoid BOM exposure (every robot needs precision motion).
Trigger: pullback under $80.
Trigger: pullback under $80.
Quantum
XNDU → promoted to Quantum portfolio at 3% (May 15, 2026). Q1 print delivered: revenue +300% YoY, AMD CFD benchmark (25× CPU speedup), customer pipeline expanded (Lockheed, TELUS, Fidelity FCAT). Funded by trimming QBTS 25→22%. See Quantum tab change log for details.
QUBT $11
Moat 2 / Val 2 / 2.0 · YTD +19%
Lower-quality pure-play; basket already covers gate + annealing + photonic.
Trigger: needs material quality improvement (revenue traction or credible roadmap proof) - currently a pass.
Trigger: needs material quality improvement (revenue traction or credible roadmap proof) - currently a pass.
Private - track for IPO signal
• Atom Computing - neutral-atom quantum; well-funded.
• PsiQuantum - photonic quantum (competes with XNDU); rumored '26 listing.
• Quantinuum - HON owns ~54%, so indirect exposure via HON in Robotics.
• Anduril - defense autonomy; rumored '26 IPO.
• PsiQuantum - photonic quantum (competes with XNDU); rumored '26 listing.
• Quantinuum - HON owns ~54%, so indirect exposure via HON in Robotics.
• Anduril - defense autonomy; rumored '26 IPO.
⚠ Watchlist is a research pipeline. Not investment advice. Composite scores and triggers can change as fundamentals evolve - verify current prices and conditions before acting.
△ PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE: All three portfolios benchmarked against SPY and QQQ since April 10, 2026. Returns are weighted by holding allocations. Data refreshed daily from Yahoo Finance close prices.
Cumulative Return Since April 10, 2026
Summary
| Portfolio | Return | vs SPY | vs QQQ |
|---|
⚠ Returns are computed from closing prices and reflect model portfolios -- no transaction costs, slippage, or taxes are included. Not investment advice.
⚡ DC INFRASTRUCTURE PORTFOLIO - FINALIZED: 15 holdings, conviction-weighted. $1,000,000 notional. Entry date: April 10, 2026. Thesis: Custom silicon, optical networking, power/cooling, and construction names benefiting from AI data center infrastructure buildout. ● LOCKED
Today’s Movers (│Δ│ ≥ 5%)
VRT -17.26%
Q2 EPS beat ($1.52) but revenue missed ($3.27B vs $3.38B est); the miss fed the broader "AI-infra hopes too high" de-rating despite 24% YoY growth.
MU -9.94%
Memory selloff on SK Hynix -16% / Samsung -10% results, China domestic-memory (CXMT) supply fears, and a $37M CEO stock sale; now ~30%+ off its June high.
COHR -8.75%
Optical-component read-through from Corning's soft guidance plus the broad AI/memory-chip de-risking on datacenter-ROI fears.
ANET -6.92%
Networking-hardware read-through from the broad AI-infra de-rating; datacenter-ROI doubt hit the whole build-out complex, no name-specific news.
LRCX -6.40%
WFE-equipment de-risking into its fiscal Q4 print (after today's close) plus China domestic-tool progress fears weighing on the group.
MRVL -6.34%
Caught in the AI/custom-silicon de-risking; valuation-driven selling with the stock still well above intrinsic value estimates and heavy insider selling.
ETN -6.31%
Electrical/power-infra name swept up in the datacenter-capex reassessment; group de-risking on AI-ROI fears rather than a company-specific catalyst.
AMD -5.51%
Sell-the-news after its "Advancing AI 2026" event, plus a broad memory/AI-chip de-risking and pre-earnings anxiety into the Aug 4 report.
$1,059,112
Portfolio Value
+$59,121
Total P&L
+5.91%
Return
SPY: +7.36%
vs S&P 500
QQQ: +8.29%
vs NASDAQ 100
Holdings
| Ticker | Company | Role in Stack | Moat | Value | Score | Weight % | Shares | Entry Price | Current Price | P&L % | P&L $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | Nvidia | GPU/AI accelerator silicon powering DC compute | 5 | 4 | 4.6 | 11.0% | 583.1 | $188.63 | $190.01 | +0.73% | +$805 |
| AVGO | Broadcom | Custom AI chips (Google TPUs) and networking ASICs | 5 | 3 | 4.2 | 9.0% | 242.2 | $371.55 | $370.32 | -0.33% | $-298 |
| APH | Amphenol | High-speed connectors and cables for every DC server rack | 5 | 3 | 4.2 | 8.0% | 568.3 | $140.75 | $150.31 | +6.79% | +$5,433 |
| ETN | Eaton Corp | Power management: switchgear, UPS, PDUs for DC electrical systems | 5 | 3 | 4.2 | 8.0% | 198.5 | $403.00 | $361.88 | -10.20% | $-8,162 |
| MRVL | Marvell Technology | Custom AI accelerator ASICs for hyperscale DC workloads | 4 | 3 | 3.6 | 7.0% | 544.7 | $128.49 | $163.40 | +27.17% | +$19,015 |
| COHR | Coherent | Optical transceivers, lasers, and photonics for 800G/1.6T DC interconnects | 4 | 3 | 3.6 | 7.0% | 227.6 | $307.50 | $222.05 | -27.79% | $-19,448 |
| ANET | Arista Networks | High-speed Ethernet switching for DC network fabrics | 4 | 3 | 3.6 | 6.0% | 407.1 | $147.35 | $157.97 | +7.21% | +$4,323 |
| MU | Micron Technology | HBM and DRAM memory for AI training/inference | 3 | 5 | 3.8 | 7.0% | 166.4 | $420.59 | $739.00 | +75.71% | +$52,983 |
| ASML | ASML Holding | Sole maker of EUV lithography machines for leading-edge chip fabrication | 5 | 2 | 3.8 | 7.0% | 47.4 | $1,478.28 | $1,550.69 | +4.90% | +$3,432 |
| LRCX | Lam Research | Dominant etch equipment (45% share) for advanced chip fabrication | 5 | 2 | 3.5 | 5.0% | 189.6 | $263.66 | $252.35 | -4.29% | $-2,144 |
| VRT | Vertiv Holdings | Power distribution and thermal/cooling infrastructure | 4 | 2 | 3.2 | 5.0% | 169.4 | $295.11 | $223.04 | -24.42% | $-12,209 |
| GEV | GE Vernova | Power generation and grid equipment for DC energy demand | 4 | 2 | 3.2 | 5.0% | 50.4 | $991.32 | $900.28 | -9.18% | $-4,588 |
| GLW | Corning | Optical fiber and specialty glass for DC connectivity | 4 | 2 | 3.2 | 5.0% | 291.9 | $171.24 | $124.05 | -27.56% | $-13,775 |
| AMD | Advanced Micro Devices | DC GPUs and server CPUs; growing AI accelerator share vs Nvidia | 4 | 3 | 3.3 | 5.0% | 204.0 | $245.04 | $429.56 | +75.30% | +$37,642 |
| MPWR | Monolithic Power Systems | Dominant high-density power management ICs for AI GPU racks | 5 | 2 | 3.3 | 5.0% | 37.0 | $1,353.85 | $1,248.76 | -7.76% | $-3,888 |
Benchmark Comparison
S&P 500 (SPY)
$729.46
Entry: $679.46 (Apr 10) | +7.36%
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ)
$661.73
Entry: $611.07 (Apr 10) | +8.29%
Change Log
Apr 14, 2026 - Fractional Shares + Live Prices
Switched to fractional share counts (1 decimal) for precise $1M notional allocation.
NVDA weight adjusted from 10% to 11% (DC portfolio) to correct weights summing to 99%.
Integrated Finnhub API for live price updates. SPY/QQQ benchmarks corrected to Apr 10 closes ($679.46/$611.07).
Prices update daily at 7:30 AM ET via automated cron.
Apr 12, 2026 - Portfolio Finalized (v3)
OUT: AMKR (3.0, weak OSAT moat), MOD (3.0, commoditized cooling), EME (3.4, contractor moat)
IN: LRCX (3.5, 45% etch market share), AMD (3.3, growing DC GPU share + Meta deal), MPWR (3.3, dominant AI power delivery)
Moat floor raised from 3.0 to 3.2. Average moat improved from 4.0 to 4.2. MRVL adjusted to 7%, ANET to 6%. Entry prices: Apr 10 close.
⚠ This is a model portfolio for tracking purposes only. Not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.